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Nick Palmer's constituency report suggests it might be squeaky bum time for Burnham.

I’d trust NPXMP’s informed comments absolutely.

But I can’t shake my uninformed view that Burnham will win easily.

I wouldn't. NPXMP infamously got it badly wrong in his own constituency in the run up to GE2015.

He's probably concerned about turnout. Burnham will win because he's the root to getting rid of Starmer.

And that's as far as most people's thinking will go.

Here's the thing - what do Conservatives actually want from this by-election?

IF Burnham wins, it's likely Starmer will soon be gone and there'll be a new PM in town and life may get tougher for Badenoch in the Commons, OTOH, Reform will be badly dented and that will increase the chances of the Conservatives moving back into a clear second and re-establishing themselves as the alternative "Right wing" option to Labour.

However, let's say Reform wins - Starmer stays, weakened and humiliated BUT Reform will be buoyant and look more like a Government in waiting with the Conservatives becoming less and less relevant.

Interesting times?

There is apparently a substantial portion of Labour members who want to keep Starmer.

If some of them live in Makersfield, I wonder how they would vote in this by- election?

I don't want Starmer to stay.

I don't want Burnham to replace him.

If I lived in Makerfield I would spoil my ballot.

...which would allow Starmer to stay.

I hesitate to say it but the best way to achieve your twin aims would be to vote Reform, because if Burnham loses I still think Starmer is toast... it's just that Rayner will be taking over.

It was all going so well until those last 8 words.

Well that's my point. Does @SandyRentool want Burnham to replace Starmer? Or Rayner? Because that's the choice imo.

He told me he would prefer Mahmood or Phillipson yesterday when I put the same point to him. So would I but I don't see any way that happens. The Labour party is in no mood for sanity.

Mahmood would be my preferred but as it’s between Starmer and Burnham it has to Burnham.

From what I was being told over the weekend the election of a Muslim (sounding, anyway) woman would create hysteria in some parts of 'official' USA.

And?

Just another reason to conclude that our values are no longer their values. It was good while it lasted.

There is apparently a substantial portion of Labour members who want to keep Starmer.

If some of them live in Makersfield, I wonder how they would vote in this by- election?

I don't want Starmer to stay.

I don't want Burnham to replace him.

If I lived in Makerfield I would spoil my ballot.

...which would allow Starmer to stay.

I hesitate to say it but the best way to achieve your twin aims would be to vote Reform, because if Burnham loses I still think Starmer is toast... it's just that Rayner will be taking over.

It was all going so well until those last 8 words.

Well that's my point. Does @SandyRentool want Burnham to replace Starmer? Or Rayner? Because that's the choice imo.

He told me he would prefer Mahmood or Phillipson yesterday when I put the same point to him. So would I but I don't see any way that happens. The Labour party is in no mood for sanity.

Mahmood would be my preferred but as it’s between Starmer and Burnham it has to Burnham.

From what I was being told over the weekend the election of a Muslim (sounding, anyway) woman would create hysteria in some parts of 'official' USA.

And?

Just another reason to conclude that our values are no longer their values. It was good while it lasted.

Russia, the USA, Israel/Iran. The axis triangle of evil.

New poll from Australia.

One Nation 31%
Lab 30%
Coaltn 18%

https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/06/07/newspoll-labor-30-one-nation-31-coalition-18-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comments

Australia has enjoyed decent economic growth and successfully "stopped the boats", so the strong support for the far right is difficult to rationalise from the perspective of the UK and the reasons often given for the rise of Reform.

Also the same anti woke agenda from One Nation as Reform have

And yet Australia is not exactly a bastion of wokeness that is crying out for a correction.
In my opinion the rise of the far right is really driven by two fundamental factors. The first is passage of time, with the post World War Two settlement passing into history. An important part of that settlement in Western countries was a kind of unwritten prohibition on supporting parties or political platforms on the far right, based on the experience with fascism and Naziism, that held across a sufficienly broad section of the population to lock these parties out. As that inoculation against the far right wears off, so these parties have gained support. The second factor is the rise of social media as a radicalisation tool, including its exploitation by malign foreign actors. English speaking countries have been most affected by this, as the US is at the epicentre of these efforts.

More broadly, the English speaking world is at the epicentre of driven-mad-by-social-media - in all respects - because English is the world language so there is just such a huge volume of malign shit. This includes malign shit created by bad actors paid for by hostile powers (see, for example, the reaction to black footballers missing penalties in that football tournament a few years ago).

Who from the Labour Party is campaigning for Burnham?

Nick Palmer. And I.

This is what I posted on 5 June based on a visit 8 days ago:
"I spent half a day doorknocking in Makerfield last Sunday, in two different locations. There were some favourable responses for Burnham who had good name recognition and was personally known to a couple of people I met, but there were quite a few Reform and hostile against responses too. We did quite a bit of driving across about 5 miles of the constituency and in that time and during doorknocking I spotted about 20 homes with Reform stakes/posters compared with about 10 for Labour and 1 Restore, although I don't think you can take too much heed of the relative numbers for Reform v Labour (based on an appreciation that if willingness to display a poster was a reliable indicator of relative support, the Conservatives wouldn't have won a general election in my lifetime.) What was striking was just how many people were not aware of the national implications if Burnham won and the Labour campaign approach was not to mention that. That approach might change a bit now that Burnham has made clear his intentions. A couple of Reform supporters appeared to genuinely equivocate once I went off script and pointed out that if Burnham wins Starmer would probably be out of the door in months.

The overall impression was that it certainly wasn't in the bag for Burnham so I would counsel against going all in on Burnham based on the latest Survation polling. With a lot still in play I don't find odds of 2/9 on attractive although Burnham should still be favourite."

Next question. What's in it for the people of Makerfield. They elected the last MP two years ago only for him to abandon them. Now you have another self-important political type inserting himself into their lives for a clear motive of self-aggrandisement. The only plus point for Burnham is the poor quality of the other candidates. But is there really enthusiasm for him from Labour supporters locally (if you have to bus people in)?

I don’t know what the people of Makerfield think, but were I one of them, I’d be excited to put Makerfield on the map, by making it the PM’s seat. Obviously Burnham is doing this to promote himself, but he is a local boy who is going to represent the needs of local people. Isn’t that a possible strong reason to vote for him?

Well, in 4 2-hour canvass sessions I didn't meet anyone who cared about the former MP standing down, or conversely anyone who was excited to be potentially represented by the next PM. I don't think that busing people in bothers anyone either - certainly all parties do it in a close by-election. I had an amicable chat with a group of 4 Reform canvassers - none were local either (interestingly they said their best response was in the poorest areas, and Makerfield doesn't actually have many really poor areas - it's WWC but doing quite well with lots of cars a lot bigger than mine).

There was a degree of enthusiasm about Burnham personally, and a definite degree of "stop Reform" moving supporters of other parties to back him (though one voter said wistfully that he disliked Burnham but didn't want to be represented by Reform, what was he to do? Voting for another party hadn't occurred to him). I only met 1 Restore voter, and zero Tories, LibDems or Greens. Today's poll suggests that Burnham's lead is increasing, though my impression (necessarily from scattered bits of Makerfield) remains that it's very close.

The seat is very scattered - basically lots of small towns and villages in the Greater Manchester area. It takes 30 minutes to drive across it!

Thanks for the information Nick.

I'm spending today walking around the constituency to see if I can get an impression of which party I should place a bet on. Currently in Wetherpoons just outside the boundaries of the seat.