Best Of

.

On topic, @TheScreamingEagles is correct.

However, I think the *really* smart bet is on:

(a) Labour to win more than 50% of the vote.
and
(b) Reform to win.

My rationale is that there's a hell of a lot of tactical squeezing to come, and there's only a very small window where Labour wins on 45-50% of the vote.

Will any bookies allow this bet as a doubke, or does one have to do two separate bets?

It's two separate bets. Basically, one is buying Labour 50-55% (7/2), 55-60 (12/1), and Reform to win (6/1).

If we convert them into probabilities, we're talking about almost exactly a 50% chance to come in, for something I think is probably more like a 70-80% chance. Which is a pretty big margin.

That sounds like the kind of 'cover all eventualities except one' bet that I always end up on the wrong end of.

Makerfield has been described as having a lot of Left-Behind Patriots. Yes, it's another label amongst many labels. See if the description echoes. I'd say it pivots to Reform more than Labour.

"Left-Behind Patriots want Britain to be more equal and think the better off are not taxed enough. However, their left-wing views appear rooted in the value of work, and they aren’t supportive of generous welfare benefits. At the same time, they are sceptical about equal opportunities policies for minority groups, and believe in stricter sentencing, including the death penalty. They split down the middle when asked for their views on trade unions.

They are highly patriotic. The group is more common in England than in Scotland, and they often regard themselves as English rather than British. They are proud of Britain’s history, though not so much its present. That helps explain why immigration is a key concern for them, and why they voted decisively to leave the EU. "


https://natcen.ac.uk/left-behind-patriots

I didn't talk long enough with voters to get a clear impression of detailed views, but it mostly sounds credible, though nobody mentioned immigration at all. The constituency seems notably more middle-aged than average - very few young people or elderly folk.

Incidentally, there was absolutely no aggro - we read of people being nervous about canvassing, but for the umpteenth time I didn't get any hostility (I never have, in 60 years of door-knocking), merely a few people saying "no way" or the like. I think we sometimes imagine Britain to be more fiercely divided than it is. Most people, for better or worse, don't actually care enough to be nasty to someone polite on their doorstep.

New poll from Australia.

One Nation 31%
Lab 30%
Coaltn 18%

https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/06/07/newspoll-labor-30-one-nation-31-coalition-18-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comments

Australia has enjoyed decent economic growth and successfully "stopped the boats", so the strong support for the far right is difficult to rationalise from the perspective of the UK and the reasons often given for the rise of Reform.

Also the same anti woke agenda from One Nation as Reform have

And yet Australia is not exactly a bastion of wokeness that is crying out for a correction.
In my opinion the rise of the far right is really driven by two fundamental factors. The first is passage of time, with the post World War Two settlement passing into history. An important part of that settlement in Western countries was a kind of unwritten prohibition on supporting parties or political platforms on the far right, based on the experience with fascism and Naziism, that held across a sufficienly broad section of the population to lock these parties out. As that inoculation against the far right wears off, so these parties have gained support. The second factor is the rise of social media as a radicalisation tool, including its exploitation by malign foreign actors. English speaking countries have been most affected by this, as the US is at the epicentre of these efforts.

Yet Bardella, of the far right RN, leads French presidential polls for next year. The nationalist Meloni is Italian PM and the AfD lead German polls and the Sweden Democrats are in a coalition government.

So it is certainly not the Anglosphere West just affected by the nationalist right surge, indeed in Canada and New Zealand the nationalist right still do not even have parties in the top 2

Yes. I think the first point is the main one. Democracies tend to veer into fascism in the absence of periodic reminders that this is not a great idea. The Nazi era inoculation has worn off.

There is apparently a substantial portion of Labour members who want to keep Starmer.

If some of them live in Makersfield, I wonder how they would vote in this by- election?

I don't want Starmer to stay.

I don't want Burnham to replace him.

If I lived in Makerfield I would spoil my ballot.

...which would allow Starmer to stay.

I hesitate to say it but the best way to achieve your twin aims would be to vote Reform, because if Burnham loses I still think Starmer is toast... it's just that Rayner will be taking over.

It was all going so well until those last 8 words.

Well that's my point. Does @SandyRentool want Burnham to replace Starmer? Or Rayner? Because that's the choice imo.

He told me he would prefer Mahmood or Phillipson yesterday when I put the same point to him. So would I but I don't see any way that happens. The Labour party is in no mood for sanity.

Would it not be more insane for a left-wing party to have a (hard IMO) right-winger in charge? Would Reform welcome Ken Clarke as a defector if he kept to his European policies as before?
There is a reason why we have the different parties.