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Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
Oh!"Robert Jenrick claims one of the reasons he defected to Reform is that the Conservative party is aiming for a ‘60 seat strategy’ which will leave the Tories grubbing around for votes in the ‘posh’ parts of Southern England – and even then only in the seats where the Lib Dems aren’t hoovering up anti-Labour protest votes.So "core Conservatives" are "motivated by demonstrating competence". That's an ask, right there, although Kemi is improving I suppose, and there's always voter amnesia. But, as even the Spectator admits, the LibDems are doing pretty well at moving into that market.
Now, leaked papers circulating among Tory MPs have been passed to The Spectator detailing exactly how that strategy would work. Three core groups of voters have been identified by the party’s strategists, led by Stephen Gilbert. These are described as ‘Potential Conservatives’, ‘persuasion voters’ and ‘tactical voters.’"
https://spectator.com/article/revealed-inside-the-tories-60-seat-election-strategy/
Seeking to defend only half of their already-record-low tally of seats is a remarkably pessimistic strategy, although maybe a realistic one.
It's notable that the biggest obstacle they may face with their own 'potential' supporters next time is the feeling that "they cannot win" - the card they've played for generations against a myriad of smaller parties. Karma at last....
Seeking to put the economy at the heart of their strategy whilst remaining blindly opposed to any sort of closer economic co-operation with the EU isn't an approach over solid ground.
Attacking Labour as the party of welfare, however, is clearly a strong attack line focused on a clear weak spot for the government.
If Tory canvassers are going to come round to claim that their party has "learned from its mistakes", I'll be interested to hear precisely how?
When I read "60-seat strategy" I assumed that was +60 seats, looking at winning back 60 target seats. Not only holding on to 60 seats total.
But now, after your comment, I look at the article and it really is 60 seats total. Cor. And indeed. Blimey.
Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
Question...No, Burnham would need to be a Labour MP. Clause VII, page 4
If Andy Burnham doesn't get the Labour nomination but decides to run as an independent, and then wins the by election.
Can he still be run for labour leader if 80 labour MP's back him?
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Rule-Book-2025.pdf
Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
All politics is relative; sometimes the relativity is to domestic stuff, sometimes not. The question to ask about any UK PM or potential PM is: are you in the same league as Carney and Macron? Are you a potential international statesman for dangerous times?Burnham will not be a good PM.That doesn't answer the questions
1) would he be better than SKS?
2) would he be better at retaining Labour seats than an SKS lead Labour party in the next election?
I suspect the answer to both those questions is that neither would be difficult to achieve...
Burnham (IMO): No.
Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
"Robert Jenrick claims one of the reasons he defected to Reform is that the Conservative party is aiming for a ‘60 seat strategy’ which will leave the Tories grubbing around for votes in the ‘posh’ parts of Southern England – and even then only in the seats where the Lib Dems aren’t hoovering up anti-Labour protest votes.Interesting, thank you
Now, leaked papers circulating among Tory MPs have been passed to The Spectator detailing exactly how that strategy would work. Three core groups of voters have been identified by the party’s strategists, led by Stephen Gilbert. These are described as ‘Potential Conservatives’, ‘persuasion voters’ and ‘tactical voters.’"
https://spectator.com/article/revealed-inside-the-tories-60-seat-election-strategy/
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Re: We need to go back to having a Prime Minister born in Canada – politicalbetting.com
No, it means good leaders should invest in defence rather than international law to protect themselves.If bad leaders do not give a toss about international law, does that not imply that good leaders should care about it?There is however truth in the fact that all law (international and domestic) is enforced by violence. If we want to keep the current status quo of international law then we have to be prepared to defend it, with violence.Yes. Otherwise, it is meaningless verbiage.
Reading and listening to some people going piously on about international law, in a world whose bad leaders do not give a toss about it, drives me nuts.
We need to be spending on armaments and sending them where they're most useful, like Ukraine.
Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
The demographics don't *feel* that Reform-y or Green tbh.
(And please insert a rant about how awful Power BI is for deep linking).
(And please insert a rant about how awful Power BI is for deep linking).
Foss
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Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
I'd rather try and predict 11 months of events than 11.5 months of events.Given this year's swings of outrageous fortune, it's equally likely those of us doing that will be hoist by our petards.Could it be two wrong answers in the prediction competition already? Oh well! At least I'm not alone.The meta game is waiting to submit until the end of January.
Foss
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Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
Voters really don’t like being taken for mugs by the politicians.If he can’t win a byelection against Reform in GM then his platform is dead on arrival.
Trying to engineer a by-election to get a mayor back into Parliament looks awfully like a stitchup, but will the Tories and Lib Dems want to stand aside or run paper candidates to let Reform challenge Burnham and keep their momentum running? Will Greens and WhateverTheyCallThemselvesThisWeek Party want to run hard and risk a Reform win?
I actually like Burnham, he has done well in Manchester, and deserves huge praise for the way he pushed forward the Hillsborough Inquiry after being booed at the Anfield memorial service while sports minister.
Still not sure that trying to fix a by-election works though.
Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
Won’t there be a drama if Burnham isn’t allowed to stand ?
Not sure I could cope with him playing the martyr . Personally I find him grating and he thinks he’s the second coming .
Not sure I could cope with him playing the martyr . Personally I find him grating and he thinks he’s the second coming .
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Re: Time for a massive reverse ferret? – politicalbetting.com
I think Burnham's sensible move is to enjoy being Mayor of Manchester, where he has been transformative, and decide that he wants to enjoy his next 20 years of life rather than let himself be destroyed in politics.If Starmer announces an all-women shortlist, does Burnham turn up to hustings in a dress and announce that he identifies as a woman this week, then stand back and watch as all Hell breaks loose among the activists?Lots of hurdles for Burnham.I suspect the safest thing to do is to let Burnham try to become an MP and hope that he fails at one of the hurdles between being mayor and becoming PM.
I personally fail to see all the Labour MPs waving him along as he sails into the leadership. Are they really likely to feel that they are collectively so useless?
Stopping him will just make SKS and so look desperate and even weaker than they currently are...
In terms of achievements, I think that Regional Mayors, and entrepreneurial cities somewhat on the Victorian pattern, are perhaps more important for the future of the country rather than rat-fights in the Westminster sack.
MattW
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