Best Of
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Many of those who gleefully look forward to the end of days claim to be patriots. But it is a strange form of patriotism that declares the country essentially finished. This is still a long way from being true.Telegraph, Times and Tory BBC have published articles against Farage and doomsterism. Has Nige threatened a news tax?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/09/farage-and-the-prophets-of-doom-have-got-britain-wrong
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
But think of the advantages such people have in living near to so many galleries and shows and restaurants.You left out of “Wages trapping millions in poverty”I agree with some of the stuff you wrote which I snipped, but I wanted to respond to the above, because you give some of the *causes*, but causal factors very much depend on your perspective. For instance, for the things mentioned below, take your choice from one or more of the following for each category (I don't agree with all of your categories; for instance I don't think private sector infrastructure is crumbling.)The great thing about all this is that there was always a golden age at some point in the past. It is the pot of gold waiting for you at the end of the rainbow.You know what? I cry B/S on that; at least, at the idea that there was a glorious age where things were better.Tell the people out there that the country isn't broken.The country is not 'broken'. Yes, we have problems, and yes, they may be bigger than they were ten years ago (*). But in general, things still work well. It's just that they could work better.1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke itCitation required.Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.Talking about Rupert Lowe.The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.
You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
(*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
Jobs don't pay people's bills
Public services receive record amounts of cash and deliver crisis levels of service
The fabric binding society together is fraying
We can't fix things by snipping bits of policy at the edges, we need the Big Picture rebuild. The Tories failed to deliver that, Labour are failing to deliver that, people are looking at Reform who won't deliver that...
Ans yes, I will tell them that, on the whole, the country isn't broken. Because it isn't. Most of the time, most things work; perhaps even work well.
The interesting things is that residents in many other countries say similar things about their own countries; witness a rant I heard recently from a German about their 'broken' rail system. Perhaps the only places we don't see that from are those where the public are not free to speak about how 'broken' things are.
Why are things broken so badly?
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
Public services crumbling due to a lack of cash
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling due to lack of investment
Rampant inflation driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
(Snip)
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
--> because of inefficiencies in the public sector
--> because services need the money
--> because the 'rich' don't pay a fair share
--> because of immigrants.
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
--> because of Covid.
--> because of *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> because we are not willing to pay enough tax
--> because the public sector is inefficient.
--> because we are too generous with benefits.
Public services crumbling
--> due to a lack of cash
--> due to inefficiencies and bloating
--> due to inaccurate targeting of funding
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling
--> due to lack of investment
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Rampant inflation
--> driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
--> driven by the after-effects of Covid
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
--> because of too high taxes on working people
--> because of the demands of modern life
--> because of stupid definitions of 'poverty'
And many more for the above. Take your choice; one or more reasons from each category.
- high cost of housing
I know many people who work in order to pay for a tiny square footage located so that they can work to pay for a tiny footage….
Oh wait ...
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
What about those Ukrainians in territory still in Ukrainian hands, which will now be handed straight over to Russia?There are not many maniacally hopak dancing Ukranian hyper-nationalists left in those oblasts. They have either already left or are dead. Although people in those areas were able to default on all debt including mortgages without consequence so they might think twice about moving back into the clutches of the Ukrainian legal system, despite any patriotic attachment.Well they can move then, as can residents of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia who want to be RussianThat won't, of course, provide a stable solution. Quite a few residents, although by no means all, of the Donbass region were quite happy, indeed preferred, being Ukrainian. Under Putin, of course, those vocal about might well find themselves being 'rehomed' a great deal nearer Vladivostok than Kyiv.Not a full report, 'the White House is trying to sway European leaders towards accepting an agreement that would include Russia taking the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and keeping Crimea.Reported in the US, the Trump (ie Putin) proposal consists of a ceasefire first stage which has Ukraine withdrawing troops from the entire Donetsk region, and freezing the front lines.I think the issue is what other strings are attached . So in terms of the Ukraine military, peace keeping forces ,EU , NATO membership . Looking at the leak today . I don’t think it’s just about what territory might have to be ceded .Trump wants a ceasefire along current Russian lines of occupation in Ukraine, which to be fair to the author of the Art of the Deal is the minimum Putin would accept and the maximum Zelensky would acceptIn a sense we are back to the possibility of Trump selling Ukraine down the river, as he attempted when he was trying to get his minerals deal and talking over Europe's head.Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.
The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .
This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
That one was headed off at the pass. How to do that again?
The second stage consists of Putin and Trump agreeing on a final 'peace plan', which only then be put to Zelensky.
So effectively Ukraine is required to put itself at a further disadvantage before anything is agreed. And they are to be shut out of the subsequent negotiation.
That's plainly absurd, but it could have the full weight of the US behind it.
It would give up the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which it partially occupies, as part of the proposed agreement, CBS reports.'
So Russia wouldn't even keep all the land it currently occupies. Realistically if Zelensky couldn't retake all the above in the last 3 years despite lots of military supplies from the US Biden regime as well as Europe, Canada and the rest of NATO plus sanctions on Moscow he certainly won't with less military aid from the Trump regime and relying only on European and Canadian support.
So he may as well accept a ceasefire on the above lines while Trump remains in office, save thousands of Ukranian lives and hope the next US President is a Democrat who might resume increased US military aid to Kyiv again
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvgnpv1x3ygt
I find your attitude towards Ukrainians very odd - you seem to make them out to be untermensch. I see f-all criticism of Russia, Russians and Putin, but lots of Ukraine, Ukrainians and Zelenskyy.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
You left out of “Wages trapping millions in poverty”I agree with some of the stuff you wrote which I snipped, but I wanted to respond to the above, because you give some of the *causes*, but causal factors very much depend on your perspective. For instance, for the things mentioned below, take your choice from one or more of the following for each category (I don't agree with all of your categories; for instance I don't think private sector infrastructure is crumbling.)The great thing about all this is that there was always a golden age at some point in the past. It is the pot of gold waiting for you at the end of the rainbow.You know what? I cry B/S on that; at least, at the idea that there was a glorious age where things were better.Tell the people out there that the country isn't broken.The country is not 'broken'. Yes, we have problems, and yes, they may be bigger than they were ten years ago (*). But in general, things still work well. It's just that they could work better.1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke itCitation required.Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.Talking about Rupert Lowe.The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.
You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
(*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
Jobs don't pay people's bills
Public services receive record amounts of cash and deliver crisis levels of service
The fabric binding society together is fraying
We can't fix things by snipping bits of policy at the edges, we need the Big Picture rebuild. The Tories failed to deliver that, Labour are failing to deliver that, people are looking at Reform who won't deliver that...
Ans yes, I will tell them that, on the whole, the country isn't broken. Because it isn't. Most of the time, most things work; perhaps even work well.
The interesting things is that residents in many other countries say similar things about their own countries; witness a rant I heard recently from a German about their 'broken' rail system. Perhaps the only places we don't see that from are those where the public are not free to speak about how 'broken' things are.
Why are things broken so badly?
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
Public services crumbling due to a lack of cash
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling due to lack of investment
Rampant inflation driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
(Snip)
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
--> because of inefficiencies in the public sector
--> because services need the money
--> because the 'rich' don't pay a fair share
--> because of immigrants.
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
--> because of Covid.
--> because of *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> because we are not willing to pay enough tax
--> because the public sector is inefficient.
--> because we are too generous with benefits.
Public services crumbling
--> due to a lack of cash
--> due to inefficiencies and bloating
--> due to inaccurate targeting of funding
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling
--> due to lack of investment
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Rampant inflation
--> driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
--> driven by the after-effects of Covid
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
--> because of too high taxes on working people
--> because of the demands of modern life
--> because of stupid definitions of 'poverty'
And many more for the above. Take your choice; one or more reasons from each category.
- high cost of housing
I know many people who work in order to pay for a tiny square footage located so that they can work to pay for a tiny footage….
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
I have a little theory about why some columnists and celebs become radicalised to the right or left - usually right - and others become radically deradicalised (Nelson is perhaps not quite in this space but Paul Mason seems to be, as are several erstwhile true blue Tories who’ve become centrist dads over the years - Matthew D’Ancona for example).It's quite a turn around from his 10m are on benefits, no work ethic, end of times from only a couple of years ago.Many of those who gleefully look forward to the end of days claim to be patriots. But it is a strange form of patriotism that declares the country essentially finished. This is still a long way from being true.Big Frase Nelson ploughing a similar furrow, presumably he has had to be de-radicalised from the Spectator ‘UK is shit’ consensus or perhaps he left just in time. Would that other Speculamators had undergone similar therapy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/09/farage-and-the-prophets-of-doom-have-got-britain-wrong
https://x.com/frasernelson/status/1954059759365095667?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I think it’s about experiencing hate on social media. Occasionally you get piled on by people on your own side, usually for not being extreme enough. Quite a lonely experience I imagine. But sometimes you’ll get a groundswell of support from others, and if those are on the other side, you may find yourself drifting towards them. Human nature.
So while the normal engagement feedback loop is towards radicalisation, occasionally it can operate the other way.

3
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
An article in the Guardian everybody can get behind...
The Hundred is just influencer sport and is the worst cricket thing ever invented
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/08/the-hundred-is-influencer-sport-could-be-worst-cricket-thing-ever-invented
The Hundred is just influencer sport and is the worst cricket thing ever invented
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/aug/08/the-hundred-is-influencer-sport-could-be-worst-cricket-thing-ever-invented
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Up until now, he has.Europe needs to publicly support Ukraine, backed up with money and weapons. You know that the cowardly, inept, useless fool Starmer won’t, unfortunately.In a sense we are back to the possibility of Trump selling Ukraine down the river, as he attempted when he was trying to get his minerals deal and talking over Europe's head.Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.
The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .
This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
That one was headed off at the pass. How to do that again?
But you're right that it will require more.

1
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
'We need to parachute back a retread from the Brown government who got booed on a footy pitch because none of our 400 MPs can save us'OT - Burnham may want to be a MP but where exactly would he win a seat? Can you name anywhere that a Lab by-election would be a probability let alone a certainty?Guido speculated Andrew Gwynne might be willing to step down for Burnham. He has a massive majority.
Rayner should be a massive favourite in this market.
However, both the Cons and Lab elect their leaders by the membership and both of those electorates have seen a massive churn in the last year or two. A leadership election now and especially in another year or two could prove quite surprising!
But its Guido, so probably BS.
Labour 2025 in action.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
True so far as it does, but those who steal the goose from off the common target the weak, not the strong, and that has always been the case.Shoplifters ARE scumbags."The law locks up the man or woman
The police need to go after each and every one of them.
Make sure crime never pays.
https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1954116962587414973?s=19
Who steals the goose from off the common
But leaves the greater villain loose
Who steals the common from the goose.
The law demands that we atone
When we take things we do not own
But leaves the lords and ladies fine
Who take things that are yours and mine."

1
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
I'm glad you weren't at Potsdam!!Not a full report, 'the White House is trying to sway European leaders towards accepting an agreement that would include Russia taking the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and keeping Crimea.Reported in the US, the Trump (ie Putin) proposal consists of a ceasefire first stage which has Ukraine withdrawing troops from the entire Donetsk region, and freezing the front lines.I think the issue is what other strings are attached . So in terms of the Ukraine military, peace keeping forces ,EU , NATO membership . Looking at the leak today . I don’t think it’s just about what territory might have to be ceded .Trump wants a ceasefire along current Russian lines of occupation in Ukraine, which to be fair to the author of the Art of the Deal is the minimum Putin would accept and the maximum Zelensky would acceptIn a sense we are back to the possibility of Trump selling Ukraine down the river, as he attempted when he was trying to get his minerals deal and talking over Europe's head.Western media have been useless and fell for the Trump being tougher on Russia narrative .All Putin needs for Trump to fold is a reminder of the video footage from that Moscow hotel room circa 2003. In the light of Epstein, how old was young Svetlana by the way? Kyiv will be a Russian city by elevensies.
The whole thing has been a charade arranged between the Kremlin and the WH .
This is the sort of absurdity world affairs hinge upon in the Trump era.
That one was headed off at the pass. How to do that again?
The second stage consists of Putin and Trump agreeing on a final 'peace plan', which only then be put to Zelensky.
So effectively Ukraine is required to put itself at a further disadvantage before anything is agreed. And they are to be shut out of the subsequent negotiation.
That's plainly absurd, but it could have the full weight of the US behind it.
It would give up the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which it partially occupies, as part of the proposed agreement, CBS reports.'
So Russia wouldn't even keep all the land it currently occupies. Realistically if Zelensky couldn't retake all the above in the last 3 years despite lots of military supplies from the US Biden regime as well as Europe, Canada and the rest of NATO plus sanctions on Moscow he certainly won't with less military aid from the Trump regime and relying only on European and Canadian support.
So he may as well accept a ceasefire on the above lines while Trump remains in office, save thousands of Ukranian lives and hope the next US President is a Democrat who might resume increased US military aid to Kyiv again
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvgnpv1x3ygt