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Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.

Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.

I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.

Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.

Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.

I think Trump, at heart, has some serious personality disorder where he hates himself and is angry about it and therefore takes action that ensures he will be hated to justify that anger. It's possible that deep deep within himself he realises at some level he was poorly brought up and advised as a young man, which is the root source of that anger.

He really needs to stand down, and see a psychologist.

He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder.
It's textbook.
That so few mention it is extraordinary.

My sister in law’s abusive ex-husband had textbook narcissistic personality disorder. I remember watching Trump’s first TV debate with Hilary and realising how uncannily similar their behaviour was. It’s been the case ever since.

I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.

It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.

And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.

I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.

Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited

Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK

The thing you should want Reform to be is not more right-wing but more competent.

I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.

You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government

Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath

Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming

You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM

Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.

After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester

Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government

In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021

But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?

In Wales I expect Plaid to be close to forming a government, but I do not expect them to do a deal with labour if the expected result does show labour near decimated

Possibly govern as a minority if necessary

I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.

You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government

Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath

Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming

You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM

Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.

After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester

Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government

In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021

I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.

It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.

And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.

I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.

Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited

Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK

Whatever qualities he may have had, not really a democrat was he?

Democracy is doomed anyway. It was a grand experiment that is now failing and will soon be consigned

https://spectator.com/article/are-we-too-stupid-for-democracy/

Democracy is safe. It’s not like we’re banning elections…….

Trump seems to have galvanised anger over his unacceptable comments on Afghanistan and Starmer needs to announce the cancelation of the King's visit as head of our armed forces in April as the best way to protest

Enough fawning

Starmer should do nothing of the kind. The King can decline. (Edit: If he wants to)

The Kings visit is impossible to justify now

The King is head of our armed forces and will follow government advice

We have been far too accommodating to Trump and he has gone too far on this

A stand is needed

The King is not some chess piece to be moved around. I'm not even a monarchist, but as things stand he can't be treated as such.

I entirely agree that we've been too accommodating to the US. However reassure yourself - we actually have most of their family secrets in our records offices.

'The King is not some chess piece to be moved around'

He was used in the first meeting with Trump with that infamous invitation for a state visit and on subsequent occasions

Of course his state visit in April can be cancelled

I don't think that is either wise or protocol.