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Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
It's blatantly obvious to anyone even half interested in politics that Burnham wants to be PM and Starmer fears Burnham getting back in the Commons (reasonable fear or not).
So I don't see much additional downside to less interested public getting wind of that relationship by having Burnham stand and (probably) win. The second Gwynne quit the headlines were about Burnham possibly standing, so if he does not (even by choice) it will be portrayed as Starmer's fault if they then go on to lose, so that will become the standard narrative.
Might as well let him stand even if it might mean personal trouble later.
So I don't see much additional downside to less interested public getting wind of that relationship by having Burnham stand and (probably) win. The second Gwynne quit the headlines were about Burnham possibly standing, so if he does not (even by choice) it will be portrayed as Starmer's fault if they then go on to lose, so that will become the standard narrative.
Might as well let him stand even if it might mean personal trouble later.
kle4
2
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
Disappointed there is no The Good, The Bad and The Ugly referenceFinal paragraph.Or is that being saved for the actual by election?
(I'm not sure who would fill which role!)
We might see the the good, the bad, and the ugly if Sir Keir Starmer blocks Burnham from standing, will Sir Keir be unforgiven?
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
Yes.So why didn't England get 4 byes from the overturned decision? Does it become a dead ball when the umpire raises his finger?No 23 off the last over this time. Surely England can get 220?You just haven't learned, have you?
England 210 all out nailed on now.
ydoethur
2
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
@IanByrneMPThey shouldn't block; and Burnham would be daft to stand. For the rest of us Labour's capacity to provide domestic entertainment at a time of world turmoil is like having a PG Wodehouse book to hand.
The Labour Party hierarchy should be begging Andy Burnham to stand. Keeping Reform out of Gorton and Denton is imperative.
Those who have trashed our polling and hollowed out Labour’s base are now actively threatening Labour’s chances of winning this seat.
@KevinASchofield
This is No10’s dilemma in a nutshell.
If Burnham is blocked from standing and Labour lose, the narrative will quickly take hold that Andy would definitely have won it - and Starmer will be blamed.
Blocking him would seem to ordinary punters like both littleness and Trumpishness at the same time. At this moment we need big people and great statesmen. Burnham standing would seem both betrayal of the mayor job, and opportunism.
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
Shirley - https://youtu.be/MpmGXeAtWUw?si=jZ0vFNfpumHFMsv0ahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON_(video_game)Have you considered a nice game of Global Thermonuclear War?Burnham's best move is to not get involved.The only way to win is not to play?
But if he does Starmer's best move is to let events take their course and not block him.
For the political watcher a Burnham/Galloway/Reform/Polanski by election would be box office.
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
Yes, it does. Cost James Taylor a century when the umpires got that rule wrongSo why didn't England get 4 byes from the overturned decision? Does it become a dead ball when the umpire raises his finger?No 23 off the last over this time. Surely England can get 220?You just haven't learned, have you?
England 210 all out nailed on now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/31470958
CatMan
3
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
Apparently the i newspaper is reporting Trump is considering cancelling the mid terms because he has done so well that they are not needed !!!!!He's made that 'joke' before, which people are meant to pretend is not a thing to be worried about, even though there's many many things he could do to disrupt them and probably will.
kle4
1
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
The white coats option doesn't really help.Apparently the i newspaper is reporting Trump is considering cancelling the mid terms because he has done so well that they are not needed !!!!!The prospect of free and fair elections in November are very small and rest mostly on men in white coats or the USA armed forces arriving to sort out the mess in time. That Trump will allow them is a very small chance. Bet accordingly but DYOR.
Vance can't afford to relinquish power either.
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
The most basic tool at Trump’s disposal is “redistricting“: redrawing constituency boundaries to boost the chances of Republican victories by creating new districts that are likely to have an in-built, pro-Trump majority. This gerrymandering is already under way in several states, with Democrat lawmakers even briefly fleeing Texas last August in a futile attempt to deny Republicans the chance to create more safe seats for their candidates.Apparently the i newspaper is reporting Trump is considering cancelling the mid terms because he has done so well that they are not needed !!!!!The results would be clearly rigged because they would not reflect Trump's utter awesomeness by given him 67 senators and 300 Reps so he could amend the Constitution and make himself King.
But Trump is also taking more active steps to try to control who gets to vote this November. White House lawyers are demanding that 44 of America’s 50 states hand over unredacted voter rolls, including not just the names and addresses of registered voters but also their driving licence details and several digits from their social security numbers (equivalent to national insurance numbers in the UK).
The White House is suing 24 states that have refused to hand over the data. But more than 20 Republican-governed states have co-operated, laying the groundwork for potential vote-suppressing skullduggery that could see thousands of Democratic Party supporters challenged over whether they can prove they have the right to vote.
The Brennan Centre for Justice, a non-partisan law and policy organisation, has called the move “part of a plan to interfere with elections”, while warning that the demands are “unprecedented” and should be considered a blatant effort by Trump “to sow distrust in the election system”.
Republican “election monitors” plan to sift through the data they’ve already received, vowing to crack down on “irregularities” that Trump falsely claims have sullied successive US elections – except, of course, for those he won.
Last November, the Department of Justice, now in Trump’s thrall, fielded its own election monitors during off-year elections in California and New Jersey. Those efforts are expected to accelerate nationwide later this year.
Trump may also seek to suppress voter turnout by stoking a sense of insecurity on the streets of Democratic stronghold cities in the run-up to November.
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-dark-plan-us-midterm-elections-already-begun-4180529
Another ploy would be to have ICE teams visibly deployed outside voting booths in Democrat areas.
Re: Today’s high noon for Andy Burnham (well 5pm) – politicalbetting.com
Single sex shortlists are legal, but ethnic minority shortlists are not.As I understand it, the rules say that the NEC can impose an all women (or other) shortlist, if representation in the parliamentary Labour Party is lacking.Burnham may still decide to go for it before tomorrow's 5pm deadline but it seems like the NEC will try and impose an all BAME shortlist to stop him anywayTom Harwood says that would clearly be illegal.
Why would that be illegal?
It is a specific exception to Equality Law. I have not checked, but I assume it means men as well.
MattW
1