Best Of

Good morning, everyone.

It’s better to be feared than loved.
Though to be neither is the worst.

As I’ve probably observed before, principles in politics are traditionally seen as weakness or a burden. However in fact they are something that can provide the foundation of trying to enact unpopular or painful policies. If voters believe that politicians’ principles are sincerely held they tend to respect the holders even if they don’t agree with them. Unfortunately for SKS and Labour the general (probably correct) perception that they have no strong or consistent attachment to a principle is becoming entrenched.

Of course you also have the weird scenario where true believers have faith in the good intentions of the most obviously principle-free reprobates going. No names, no pack drill.

Don't forget the rest of Machiavelli's line. The most important thing is to avoid being hated.

Another one from Machiavelli. Wonder who it might apply to.

“The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.”

The struggle is real.

The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.

The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.

Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.

Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

The struggle is real.

The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.

The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.

Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.

Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

Interesting set of numbers.
Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.

Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.

I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.

Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

The struggle is real.

The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.

The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.

Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.

Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

More on this.

"Public must stand up to shoplifters, says policing chief
Thames Valley Police and Crime Commissioner claims people who fail to intervene are ‘part of problem’" (£)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/12/public-must-stand-up-to-shoplifters-says-policing-chief

Actually: the police need to be properly funded, as does the Crown Prosection Service, Legal Aid and prisons.

Saving money on criminal justice is one of the most expensive things you can do.

I think, entirely objectively, that adequate pay for Advocate Deputes (prosecutors in the High Court) is a particular priority.

Object Zero
@Object_Zero_

In the UK,

I can buy index linked senior Gilts that yield 5.03% (22/03/29) and on the same day I am advertised similar fixed term mortgages for 3.8%

I could borrow £500k against a property, pay the bank £19,000 pa interest and sink the cash into inflation proof Gilts that pay me £25,150 pa.

Obviously I have skipped taxes for the sake of simplicity (everyone’s taxes are different), but you shouldn’t be able to carry trade the risk free rate of return INSIDE a currency?

Why are UK banks seemingly offering this arbitrage?
Are they just trying to prop up their residential property books?

It feels one of those things you notice that screams “something is going to break soon”.

https://x.com/Object_Zero_/status/1954821166029250751

The main mortgage lenders are in the business of borrowing from their depositors at 1-2%, leaving them very well able to compete downwards to below 4% lending rates.

Sure: but then why lend to people at all, when you can earn a (much) better return lending to the government?

Volume?

The volume of mortgage lending exceeds even UK government borrowing per annum. Plus there's nothing stopping banks from doing both - and if both are profitable, then why not do both and make a profit on both volumes.

If you only lent to the government and cut off mortgage profits you may increase your proportional profit but not your actual gross profit as you'd be leaving profitable business on the table to be snapped up by someone else.

It's just a weird artifact. You would expect that 30 year index linked gilts would trade at a discount to mortgages, because banks would choose to purchase them in preference. Simply: they have a smaller capital charge (from a risk weighted assets point of view), and are currently offering essentially guaranteed better returns.

In an efficient market, you would expec them to trade at a 25-75bps premium to mortgages.