Best Of
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
5/1 on the Greens to win the by election always looked far better value than 5/1 on Burnham to be next PM.
Agree heavily with both. Seems like the betting has been frozen everywhere but Greens feel a stonking value bet.The huge own goal here is that Labour supporters who want Starmer to go might think they should vote Green in the by election - which will empower people to say “Andy would have won!” and/or make the leadership look even weaker, because if they can’t win this seat they are set for a cataclysmic 2029I’d be getting on the Greens for the by election, certainly.
Reform could also challenge though I suspect will be blocked by tactical voting.
I’d have chances as about 50% Green / 30% Reform / 20% Labour right now.
I also wonder about Greens to win the next election - purely as a trading bet. If you get on at long odds now and they win the by election you could probably trade that out quite decently when the hype sets in on the Friday morning after.
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Sienna Rodgers: Now we look to whether Burnham allies can apply enough pressure to reverse the decision...
No clear mechanism for doing so in a technical sense. It's been suggested that if half the NEC requests an emergency meeting, that could happen.
No clear mechanism for doing so in a technical sense. It's been suggested that if half the NEC requests an emergency meeting, that could happen.
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
The huge own goal here is that Labour supporters who want Starmer to go might think they should vote Green in the by election - which will empower people to say “Andy would have won!” and/or make the leadership look even weaker, because if they can’t win this seat they are set for a cataclysmic 2029Many of the white working class voters who would have backed Burnham will go Reform now too, while as you say middle class progressives will go Green so Labour are at risk of falling to 3rd in the by election
HYUFD
2
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
So there’s potential chaos in Iran, the Chinese regime looks close to imploding, the US is nudging towards a civil war, and Starmer decides the best thing to do is pick a fight with people in his own party…
Sandpit
3
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
2nd.Or 3rd behind Reform and the Greens ?
Like Lab in Gorton
Re: The Gorton & Denton might become the most (in)famous by-election in history – politicalbetting.com
You're right that they put party control, conformity and obedience above all, and won't lose much sleep at having shut out a potential cause of political problems down the road. As they've done lots of times before.I'm struggling to see any real benefit to Starmer in letting Burnham run.Not to the clique.Patrick MaguireCrazy . Just let the guy stand which is the least worst option .
@patrickkmaguire
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15m
Several sources telling me anti-Burnham camp have the numbers...
Losing control of the Party is the worst option and the only one that counts to them.
SKS will be replaced by a fellow traveller in 2026 my money on Mahmood beating Streeting and Rayner
Sure, there will be howls of outrage if he's blocked. But he's blocked many before (and turfed Corbynites out of the NEC) and weathered that too.
The big - and really, only - question is whether publicly blocking Burnham makes a Green (or Reform) win at the by-election a possibility? For the Greens in particular, the momentum they could get from a stunning win could knock directly on into the cities in May, and I'm sceptical that Labour can hold the by-election off until the locals.
IanB2
1
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
So Burnham now has to make out that he is fully committed to serving the people of Greater Manchester as Mayor.
Pillock.
He made himself look like a pillock at conference, and has done so again.
Pillock.
He made himself look like a pillock at conference, and has done so again.
Re: The Gorton & Denton might become the most (in)famous by-election in history – politicalbetting.com
Why can’t Burnham stand and if he’s not successful remain Manchester Mayor ?
It seems silly to have to give up that post before hand .
It seems silly to have to give up that post before hand .
nico67
1
Re: The Gorton & Denton might become the most (in)famous by-election in history – politicalbetting.com
You're writing off Ed Davey's chances then?A Mahmood v Badenoch GE would be quite something.Not to the clique.Patrick MaguireCrazy . Just let the guy stand which is the least worst option .
@patrickkmaguire
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15m
Several sources telling me anti-Burnham camp have the numbers...
Losing control of the Party is the worst option and the only one that counts to them.
SKS will be replaced by a fellow traveller in 2026 my money on Mahmood beating Streeting and Rayner
Re: The Gorton & Denton might become the most (in)famous by-election in history – politicalbetting.com
It appears the King sent a private note to Trump over his comments on Afghanistan and it prompted Trumps U turnLook at what Trump said carefully. There is no U turn. No taking back of the detail in any respect of what he saud before. Just as there is no apology. The press have not covered this properly.
