Best Of

Have we discussed Reform's request to place some of their friends in the House of Lords. And if they were able to, would Nadine give up on Boris and join Reform?

They can "request" whatever they like, it's not in their fief or power unless existing Peers set up a Reform group within the House of Lords. Nothing wrong with that if they chose so to do but it's the usual bleating from Reform who think because they are the top of the opinion polls, they are entitled to representation. That's not how politics works.

We've also seen a concerted anti-London push from Reform in recent days with Reform councillors in neighbouring authorities advocating "re-uniting" London Boroughs with their pre-1965 counties so Havering with Essex, Bromley with Kent etc. I suppose there might be some vague nostalgia for that as there might be for Yugoslavia or Prussia but most residents are, I suspect, for all they might loathe Sadiq Khan currently, happier within London with their 60+ free travel (which I know is supported by everyone on here).

So it would save money if Havering merged with Essex and Bromley merged with Kent - with the 60+ reform voter voting to remove their benefit.

As someone subjected to Zone 9 (I.e. out of London tfl fares) for 35 years it would also allow TfL to charge significantly more for their tickets in those boroughs

But it’s also the same on Teesside with anyone south of the Tees desperate to claim they are really in North Yorkshire

For a party which strongly relies on older voters (not to the extent the Conservatives do but still) it would seem counter-intuitive for turkeys to vote for Christmas. Are we assuming Reform will allow the poor citizens any choice in this or will they just enact this through primary legislation and leave everyone else to clear up the mess? As we're seeing with the current round of re-organisation, these exercises involve a lot of spending before any meaningful benefit is realised.

Just to clarify your understanding of how it works, boundaries have little or nothing to do with the 60+ Oystercard and Freedom pass. It's provided by Transport for London and can be used on TfL services whether those services are running inside Greater London or not. As an example, if I want to go to Sandown Park for an afternoon's racing and I don't want to pay for travel, I take the train to Surbiton and then catch the K3 bus (a TfL service) to Esher High Street and then walk to the track. I could pay to take the train to Esher but with my punting prowess, I need all the cash I can spare.

IF Bromley ceased to be a London Borough but bus services (including the Croydon Tramlink and Overground rail) were still provided by Transport for London, 60+ Oyster cards and Freedom passes would still be valid on those services and people from other parts of London could still use them for nothing. The locals would have to pay.

As usual with Reform "policies", it's incoherent and doesn't reflect the reality of how people live but apparently 30% of us want these clowns in Government. I suppose the one difference is some genuinely thought Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer might bring about some positive change and improve people's lives and I can appreciate that sense of disappointment. No one will be under any illusions with Reform.

That will just be Khan's Punishment Beatings Because We Stood Up For Our Freedom.

No one should incur the wrath of Khan.

Once more pb is ahead of the game. The Standard reports that someone or other has called for an end to the Freedom Pass.

Calls to scrap Over-60s free travel after it 'costs £84m in lost revenue'
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/freedom-pass-over-60s-free-travel-cost-cuts-b1243075.html

Does that make the mistake of assuming that each oldie would make as many trips as they would if it weren't 'free' (as if they weren't also council tax payers, of course)?

Of course it does. It lazily tots up the full fare of each free trip, without considering that many journeys would simply not have been made. Another hazard of taking data collected for one purpose and using it for quite another.

That might well be to confuse strategy for lethargy.

Most think tanks start from their desired conclusion and work back to some plausible-sounding data.

Here's more recent polling that you won't hear Trump or Farage supporters mentioning.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/692522/surge-concern-immigration-abated.aspx
...Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country.

These shifts reverse a four-year trend of rising concern about immigration that began in 2021 and reflect changes among all major party groups...

The paradox of the migration debate.

Most people want the total numbers to fall, but don't want the numbers in most migration scenarios to fall. It's not quite "less migrants in theory but not in practice", but it's pretty close;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52704-is-there-public-support-for-large-scale-removals-of-migrants

The way that most people square that circle is to massively overestimate the proportion of immigration that is irregular/illegal because the boats are so visible. From that YouGov link,

Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.

As our American friends are currently discovering, anti-immigrant talk is much more popular than anti-immigrant action.

The propensity of some people to believe stuff that simply isn't true never fails to astound me. It's not like it's hard to educate yourself on this stuff. The combination of cynical and malevolent politicians and gullible and stupid voters is a worrying one: we all know how this plays out in the worst case scenario and I for one don't want to be here if it does.

Your arrogance and sense of superiority does little for your argument. A little humble pie??

If I believed myself to be superior I would be less surprised at how frequently people believe stuff that is demonstrably false. I have an optimist's faith in human intelligence and am constantly disappointed.

I'm wondering what the "PC" alternative is to expressing frustration with the gullible voters being exploited by cynical populist politicians. Say it's all very understandable given busy lives and lack of education? No, that's patronising 'poverty of low expectations' stuff. Think it but keep quiet for fear of looking snooty or causing offence? No, that's inauthentic and weak. Hit yourself on the head with a hammer and join them? Ok possibly worth considering - but has to be a plan Z.

Have we discussed Reform's request to place some of their friends in the House of Lords. And if they were able to, would Nadine give up on Boris and join Reform?

They can "request" whatever they like, it's not in their fief or power unless existing Peers set up a Reform group within the House of Lords. Nothing wrong with that if they chose so to do but it's the usual bleating from Reform who think because they are the top of the opinion polls, they are entitled to representation. That's not how politics works.

We've also seen a concerted anti-London push from Reform in recent days with Reform councillors in neighbouring authorities advocating "re-uniting" London Boroughs with their pre-1965 counties so Havering with Essex, Bromley with Kent etc. I suppose there might be some vague nostalgia for that as there might be for Yugoslavia or Prussia but most residents are, I suspect, for all they might loathe Sadiq Khan currently, happier within London with their 60+ free travel (which I know is supported by everyone on here).

So it would save money if Havering merged with Essex and Bromley merged with Kent - with the 60+ reform voter voting to remove their benefit.

As someone subjected to Zone 9 (I.e. out of London tfl fares) for 35 years it would also allow TfL to charge significantly more for their tickets in those boroughs

But it’s also the same on Teesside with anyone south of the Tees desperate to claim they are really in North Yorkshire

For a party which strongly relies on older voters (not to the extent the Conservatives do but still) it would seem counter-intuitive for turkeys to vote for Christmas. Are we assuming Reform will allow the poor citizens any choice in this or will they just enact this through primary legislation and leave everyone else to clear up the mess? As we're seeing with the current round of re-organisation, these exercises involve a lot of spending before any meaningful benefit is realised.

Just to clarify your understanding of how it works, boundaries have little or nothing to do with the 60+ Oystercard and Freedom pass. It's provided by Transport for London and can be used on TfL services whether those services are running inside Greater London or not. As an example, if I want to go to Sandown Park for an afternoon's racing and I don't want to pay for travel, I take the train to Surbiton and then catch the K3 bus (a TfL service) to Esher High Street and then walk to the track. I could pay to take the train to Esher but with my punting prowess, I need all the cash I can spare.

IF Bromley ceased to be a London Borough but bus services (including the Croydon Tramlink and Overground rail) were still provided by Transport for London, 60+ Oyster cards and Freedom passes would still be valid on those services and people from other parts of London could still use them for nothing. The locals would have to pay.

As usual with Reform "policies", it's incoherent and doesn't reflect the reality of how people live but apparently 30% of us want these clowns in Government. I suppose the one difference is some genuinely thought Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer might bring about some positive change and improve people's lives and I can appreciate that sense of disappointment. No one will be under any illusions with Reform.

That will just be Khan's Punishment Beatings Because We Stood Up For Our Freedom.

No one should incur the wrath of Khan.

Once more pb is ahead of the game. The Standard reports that someone or other has called for an end to the Freedom Pass.

Calls to scrap Over-60s free travel after it 'costs £84m in lost revenue'
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/freedom-pass-over-60s-free-travel-cost-cuts-b1243075.html

Does that make the mistake of assuming that each oldie would make as many trips as they would if it weren't 'free' (as if they weren't also council tax payers, of course)?

Of course it does. It lazily tots up the full fare of each free trip, without considering that many journeys would simply not have been made. Another hazard of taking data collected for one purpose and using it for quite another.

It still irritates me that the Americans insist on telling you that the difference between 47 and 52 is 5 (which might be classed as unnecessary information) and fail to tell us how these numbers compare with the last ones giving the direction of travel. Why on earth do they do this?

Having said this, I got lured into watching a video yesterday when people in the street were being asked if a die was rolled 420 times how many 3s would you expect? The people getting it wrong included a teacher, allegedly. Innumeracy rules, apparently.

It still blows my mind how many supposedly intelligent people think I am wrong when I tell them you get more pizza with one 18 inch pizza than with two 12 inch pizzas.

Do you tell them to do the calculation and then laugh when they ask what's the calculation ?

Too many 'educated' people seem to be proud of their lack of basic mathematical skills.

I am no good at hard maths but can navigate everyday numerical reality in my head, (and keep noticing that a lot of younger people can't) but I would not be able to tell you from my head at what proportion of diameter increase the area of a pizza doubles.

Related to this is that people are routinely amazed that others don't know at all what they know a lot about. (Like most people don't know that Sir K is the son of a toolmaker; couldn't name the four gospels; don't know whether Alfred the Great was before or after Henry III).

You don't need to remember any of the formulae about the areas of circles; the truth of TSE's proposition arises simply from increasing both the height and the width of the pizza by 50%, which is multiplying by 1.5 (from 12 inch to 18 inch), hence the area increases by 1.5x1.5 = 2.25, which is more than double.

Simple things can fool people who don't think clearly; for example, during my recent absence our Sunil posted a photo of central London, and one of the responses said "it looks like you are significantly ABOVE the top of the Shard, which is impossible in a London building". Yet in the photo the top of the Shard was very clearly above the horizon; it ought to have taken just a moment's thought to realise that the photographer is always LOWER than any object that is above a level horizon in a photo.

The reality in a pizza restaurant may be somewhat different as dough for each pizza won't be measured out precisely. IIRC from my days working in a pizza restaurant the 12" pizza was allocated 1.5x the dough for a 10" pizza not 1.44x as much, because that was easier. Diameter sizes are approximate, and I suspect an 18" pizza would simply use 2x the dough of a 12".
The question of toppings is an interesting one. We used to do an all you can eat offer on Wednesdays and we had to note which round people were on as the kitchen would put fewer toppings on each one. So the first pizza was like a normal one, and by the time people were on their third or fourth pizza it was pretty bare. The funny thing was that nobody ever noticed!

It still irritates me that the Americans insist on telling you that the difference between 47 and 52 is 5 (which might be classed as unnecessary information) and fail to tell us how these numbers compare with the last ones giving the direction of travel. Why on earth do they do this?

Having said this, I got lured into watching a video yesterday when people in the street were being asked if a die was rolled 420 times how many 3s would you expect? The people getting it wrong included a teacher, allegedly. Innumeracy rules, apparently.

It still blows my mind how many supposedly intelligent people think I am wrong when I tell them you get more pizza with one 18 inch pizza than with two 12 inch pizzas.

Do you tell them to do the calculation and then laugh when they ask what's the calculation ?

Too many 'educated' people seem to be proud of their lack of basic mathematical skills.

I am no good at hard maths but can navigate everyday numerical reality in my head, (and keep noticing that a lot of younger people can't) but I would not be able to tell you from my head at what proportion of diameter increase the area of a pizza doubles.

Related to this is that people are routinely amazed that others don't know at all what they know a lot about. (Like most people don't know that Sir K is the son of a toolmaker; couldn't name the four gospels; don't know whether Alfred the Great was before or after Henry III).

You don't need to remember any of the formulae about the areas of circles; the truth of TSE's proposition arises simply from increasing both the height and the width of the pizza by 50%, which is multiplying by 1.5 (from 12 inch to 18 inch), hence the area increases by 1.5x1.5 = 2.25, which is more than double.

Simple things can fool people who don't think clearly; for example, during my recent absence our Sunil posted a photo of central London, and one of the responses said "it looks like you are significantly ABOVE the top of the Shard, which is impossible in a London building". Yet in the photo the top of the Shard was very clearly above the horizon; it ought to have taken just a moment's thought to realise that the photographer is always LOWER than any object that is above a level horizon in a photo.

The reality in a pizza restaurant may be somewhat different as dough for each pizza won't be measured out precisely. IIRC from my days working in a pizza restaurant the 12" pizza was allocated 1.5x the dough for a 10" pizza not 1.44x as much, because that was easier. Diameter sizes are approximate, and I suspect an 18" pizza would simply use 2x the dough of a 12".
The question of toppings is an interesting one. We used to do an all you can eat offer on Wednesdays and we had to note which round people were on as the kitchen would put fewer toppings on each one. So the first pizza was like a normal one, and by the time people were on their third or fourth pizza it was pretty bare. The funny thing was that nobody ever noticed!

Peak PB…

Something to be said for this idea…

https://x.com/abridgen/status/1955903325641351219

My suggestion on digital ID would be that all MPs and members of the House of Lords adopt digital ID as a pilot scheme , allow the public access to all the information as to where they go and what they do, all live. Run the trial for a couple of years and see if the MPs and Peers find the technology intrusive. What do you think to that idea ?

The UK should just move to ID cards with the option of a digital ID if people prefer that . I don’t see why this seems to be so controversial as almost every other European country have them.

There are two things:

1) Philosophical - the relationship between the state and the citizen is different in the UK. The state doesn’t get to order us around without consent - they have no right to demand we identify ourselves (“papers please”)

2) Practical - Blair’s original proposal hung massive databases off the ID card and gave way too many people access to the information. It was a massive privacy and data security risk.

We’re already tracked to a certain degree by our phones . You can limit the data on the ID card to just what’s absolutely necessary and also what agencies can access it .

You are under no obligation to own a smartphone, or a car, or a property.

I think it’s an Anglosphere thing where the public seem to be really riled up by the idea of ID cards .

I'd rather have mass uncontrolled illegal migration than ID cards. That's how much I dislike the idea of them being introduced.

I wouldn't.

This insane hostility to ID utterly baffles me. If they're so dangerous how is it that democracy survives and flourishes in Europe.?

Your reference to Europe contains the clue, since there, you can be stopped and asked for "your papers, please?", and in many places it's an offence if you don't have them. Here, going about your lawful business, there is no such requirement.

Have we discussed Reform's request to place some of their friends in the House of Lords. And if they were able to, would Nadine give up on Boris and join Reform?

They can "request" whatever they like, it's not in their fief or power unless existing Peers set up a Reform group within the House of Lords. Nothing wrong with that if they chose so to do but it's the usual bleating from Reform who think because they are the top of the opinion polls, they are entitled to representation. That's not how politics works.

We've also seen a concerted anti-London push from Reform in recent days with Reform councillors in neighbouring authorities advocating "re-uniting" London Boroughs with their pre-1965 counties so Havering with Essex, Bromley with Kent etc. I suppose there might be some vague nostalgia for that as there might be for Yugoslavia or Prussia but most residents are, I suspect, for all they might loathe Sadiq Khan currently, happier within London with their 60+ free travel (which I know is supported by everyone on here).

So it would save money if Havering merged with Essex and Bromley merged with Kent - with the 60+ reform voter voting to remove their benefit.

As someone subjected to Zone 9 (I.e. out of London tfl fares) for 35 years it would also allow TfL to charge significantly more for their tickets in those boroughs

But it’s also the same on Teesside with anyone south of the Tees desperate to claim they are really in North Yorkshire

For a party which strongly relies on older voters (not to the extent the Conservatives do but still) it would seem counter-intuitive for turkeys to vote for Christmas. Are we assuming Reform will allow the poor citizens any choice in this or will they just enact this through primary legislation and leave everyone else to clear up the mess? As we're seeing with the current round of re-organisation, these exercises involve a lot of spending before any meaningful benefit is realised.

Just to clarify your understanding of how it works, boundaries have little or nothing to do with the 60+ Oystercard and Freedom pass. It's provided by Transport for London and can be used on TfL services whether those services are running inside Greater London or not. As an example, if I want to go to Sandown Park for an afternoon's racing and I don't want to pay for travel, I take the train to Surbiton and then catch the K3 bus (a TfL service) to Esher High Street and then walk to the track. I could pay to take the train to Esher but with my punting prowess, I need all the cash I can spare.

IF Bromley ceased to be a London Borough but bus services (including the Croydon Tramlink and Overground rail) were still provided by Transport for London, 60+ Oyster cards and Freedom passes would still be valid on those services and people from other parts of London could still use them for nothing. The locals would have to pay.

As usual with Reform "policies", it's incoherent and doesn't reflect the reality of how people live but apparently 30% of us want these clowns in Government. I suppose the one difference is some genuinely thought Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer might bring about some positive change and improve people's lives and I can appreciate that sense of disappointment. No one will be under any illusions with Reform.

What did Americans think would happen when half decided to vote for him again ! These polls annoy the hell out of me . Wtf did so many Latinos decide to vote for him in the first place .

The overall approval rating does look much lower than other polls .

People like the sound of radical change, and simple solutions. But they're not great at extrapolation what those things might actually mean.

And an awful lot of people expect life for them to just carry on in the same vein, until it doesn't.

And remember that Trump emphasised time and again that the targets of his cruelty would only be the worst of the worst.

Is the immigration debate entirely dissimilar here ?

I've lived in the US and the UK and anti immigrant sentiment is without a doubt worse here. We've just not yet elected a government willing to act on it. If Farage got in we would see some really ugly stuff happening, accompanied by civil unrest.