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Reform extend their voting intention lead to 10pts this week, with Labour and the Tories tied for second place. 

➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 20% (-2)
🌳 CON 20% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
❓OTH 3% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

N = 2,087 | Fieldwork 5-9/6 | Changes w/ 1/6

This can’t be true. The PB brains trust has said Reform are in a state of decline.

Let me introduce you to the concept of a single data point.

Reform are clearly well below their peak when it comes average polling.

Looking at this chart, can you spot when Kemi Badenoch became leader?

More In Common

Reform extend their voting intention lead to 10pts this week, with Labour and the Tories tied for second place. 

➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 20% (-2)
🌳 CON 20% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
❓OTH 3% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

N = 2,087 | Fieldwork 5-9/6 | Changes w/ 1/6

Looks like Labour will need that Burnham bounce, assuming he wins Makerfield and becomes their leader

The news has all been very Reform friendly over the last week. Harry Nowak, Northern Ireland (a bit late, I guess) and terrible immigration figures of net 100,000 p a if immigration is your thang.

Net immigration is falling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyp1ekd584o

In real world terms the number of immigrants in the UK is still increasing.

Until the number of immigrants in the UK starts to decrease (which requires negative net migration) then this will continue to be an electoral problem for any government.

In particular until the number of the 'wrong type' of immigrants starts to decrease this will continue to be an electoral problem for the government.

It’s a bit like when governments say that inflation is down, in response to cost of living concerns.

The electorate doesn’t want inflation to come down, they want *prices* to come down.

Voters may well want prices to come down.

But they really really wouldn't want the depression that nearly (? are there any counterexamples?) always follows deflation.

The principle may have other applications.

Yes, there was often benign deflation in the 19th century. It's mainly because of theories blaming the 1930s depression on deflation that people are now allergic to it.

You can't really look at whether inflation/deflation is a big problem in isolation. For example, I remember that Carney/Osborne had a macroeconomic target of 5% nominal GDP growth, and they were broadly relaxed about how that was divided between inflation and real GDP growth.

So if, for example, you have nominal GDP growth of 5%, and deflation of 2%, then you're laughing, with real GDP growth of ~7%.

If instead you have nominal GDP growth of -1% and deflation of 2%, then your real GDP growth is ~1%, but you're in a debt trap. If you have real GDP growth of about the same 1%, but with nominal GDP growth of 5% and inflation if 4%, then that's healthier - no debt trap.

This sort of thing is going to become much more relevant when the global population starts to shrink.

Boo

An update on the future of Doctor Who

Today we’re announcing an update on plans for the future of Doctor Who.

As part of securing the next phase of the show for future generations, and in line with the BBC’s Charter and Agreement requirements, the BBC will put Doctor Who out to competitive tender this year. Doctor Who remains an important part of the BBC and this tender underpins the BBC’s continued commitment to Doctor Who ensuring audiences will enjoy the show for years to come.

After careful consideration, the BBC, Russell T Davies and Bad Wolf have collectively decided not to go ahead with the previously announced Doctor Who Christmas episode. This decision was not taken lightly, and we know it will be disappointing for fans, but in order to set the show up for future series, it was decided that rather than bridge the gap with a one off special, we are choosing to push forward to invest in the long-term future of the show which ensures that when the TARDIS lands once more, it does so in all its glory.

The previously announced new Doctor Who animation series for CBeebies is currently in production.

Details of the tender will be announced in due course.

The BBC retains all IP in Doctor Who. BBC Studios will continue to lead the global distribution of Doctor Who as well as licensing, consumer products, digital and immersive experiences on behalf of the BBC.

https://x.com/bbcdoctorwho/status/2064649001568543172?s=46

So it's fucked then.

Maybe they should forget the CBeebies animated version - and just regenerate the Doctor as a child...

Already done something similar in that utter shit ‘Timeless Child’

It’s already fucked. It’s utter dross. The second coming of RTD was a disaster as was having an actor in the lead role who didn’t seem too engaged in it.

Never go back, they say and its right. RTD saved Dr Who from obscurity once, but second time round he appeared to have gone mad.

Indeed.

All he did was fuck his legacy, and it was a good legacy.

I watched some of his initial episodes recently and what struck me about them was they were fun. Watching them was fun. It wasn’t a chore. It was a joy.

Boo

An update on the future of Doctor Who

Today we’re announcing an update on plans for the future of Doctor Who.

As part of securing the next phase of the show for future generations, and in line with the BBC’s Charter and Agreement requirements, the BBC will put Doctor Who out to competitive tender this year. Doctor Who remains an important part of the BBC and this tender underpins the BBC’s continued commitment to Doctor Who ensuring audiences will enjoy the show for years to come.

After careful consideration, the BBC, Russell T Davies and Bad Wolf have collectively decided not to go ahead with the previously announced Doctor Who Christmas episode. This decision was not taken lightly, and we know it will be disappointing for fans, but in order to set the show up for future series, it was decided that rather than bridge the gap with a one off special, we are choosing to push forward to invest in the long-term future of the show which ensures that when the TARDIS lands once more, it does so in all its glory.

The previously announced new Doctor Who animation series for CBeebies is currently in production.

Details of the tender will be announced in due course.

The BBC retains all IP in Doctor Who. BBC Studios will continue to lead the global distribution of Doctor Who as well as licensing, consumer products, digital and immersive experiences on behalf of the BBC.

https://x.com/bbcdoctorwho/status/2064649001568543172?s=46

So it's fucked then.

Maybe they should forget the CBeebies animated version - and just regenerate the Doctor as a child...

Already done something similar in that utter shit ‘Timeless Child’

It’s already fucked. It’s utter dross. The second coming of RTD was a disaster as was having an actor in the lead role who didn’t seem too engaged in it.

Never go back, they say and its right. RTD saved Dr Who from obscurity once, but second time round he appeared to have gone mad.

Indeed.

All he did was fuck his legacy, and it was a good legacy.

I watched some of his initial episodes recently and what struck me about them was they were fun. Watching them was fun. It wasn’t a chore. It was a joy.

Totally. In my head cannon everything after "Twice Upon a Time" never happened. Your are on the money with the fun - it was fun. You looked forward to watching Dr Who. Now? I just hope its not shit, and that the sermonising isn't too obvious.

Morning all

First, we need to condemn without reservation the mob violence in Belfast last night. It's a strange world where we think two wrongs make a right and whatever happened with the attack which by the way was heinous and, if proven, the perpetrator needs to feel the full weight of the law, doesn't in any way justify or condone forcing people out of their homes and burning said properties.

We know Northern Ireland has a history of "ethnic cleansing" in this manner and it's something with which the authorities need to take control and stop.

A "long hot summer" then it seems with anyone looking at anyone else in a funny way liable to bring the mobs out on the streets for a bit of impromptu street entertainment. That's the way it is now, apparently? People get angry at the slightest thing radicalised no doubt by the misinformation and disinformation on X and elsewhere and out they come thinking somehow, well, what are they thinking?

If I may say so, your last paragraph doesn't really fit with the first one. A decapitation attempt (which you rightly describe as heinous) cannot be categorised as a slight thing.

And speedily dealt with by the police, with the culprit in custody.

So why the pogrom?

Government policy is to put more people like the person who maimed Stephen Ogilvie or the person who murdered Rhiannon Whyte into our communities. They're not just unfortunate random incidents but the predictable consequence of choices made by the state.

The state made Wayne Cousins a law enforcement officer, not once but twice. Bad people are bad people irrespective of ethnicity or occupation.

That's true. Nevertheless the noble far-right aspiration that 100% of violent crime in Britain be committed by proper British born and bred thugs, rapists and murderers cannot be achieved without mass deportations and closing the borders.

You think that if the Sudanese man who tried to behead the unfortunate guy in Northern Ireland hadn't been given leave to remain that a native citizen would have taken up their kitchen knife to do the deed themselves?

Why would I believe something as absurd as that? Crime isn't a fungible pie to be shared out. Each one is unique and wouldn't have happened but for the things leading up to it.

Right. So it's not unreasonable for people to think that there might have been something that could have been done differently to prevent a foreign national from being in the country to commit such a crime.

Some people are going to be first-time offenders, but not all of them.

Boo

An update on the future of Doctor Who

Today we’re announcing an update on plans for the future of Doctor Who.

As part of securing the next phase of the show for future generations, and in line with the BBC’s Charter and Agreement requirements, the BBC will put Doctor Who out to competitive tender this year. Doctor Who remains an important part of the BBC and this tender underpins the BBC’s continued commitment to Doctor Who ensuring audiences will enjoy the show for years to come.

After careful consideration, the BBC, Russell T Davies and Bad Wolf have collectively decided not to go ahead with the previously announced Doctor Who Christmas episode. This decision was not taken lightly, and we know it will be disappointing for fans, but in order to set the show up for future series, it was decided that rather than bridge the gap with a one off special, we are choosing to push forward to invest in the long-term future of the show which ensures that when the TARDIS lands once more, it does so in all its glory.

The previously announced new Doctor Who animation series for CBeebies is currently in production.

Details of the tender will be announced in due course.

The BBC retains all IP in Doctor Who. BBC Studios will continue to lead the global distribution of Doctor Who as well as licensing, consumer products, digital and immersive experiences on behalf of the BBC.

https://x.com/bbcdoctorwho/status/2064649001568543172?s=46

So it's fucked then.

Maybe they should forget the CBeebies animated version - and just regenerate the Doctor as a child...

Already done something similar in that utter shit ‘Timeless Child’

It’s already fucked. It’s utter dross. The second coming of RTD was a disaster as was having an actor in the lead role who didn’t seem too engaged in it.

Never go back, they say and its right. RTD saved Dr Who from obscurity once, but second time round he appeared to have gone mad.

Morning all

First, we need to condemn without reservation the mob violence in Belfast last night. It's a strange world where we think two wrongs make a right and whatever happened with the attack which by the way was heinous and, if proven, the perpetrator needs to feel the full weight of the law, doesn't in any way justify or condone forcing people out of their homes and burning said properties.

We know Northern Ireland has a history of "ethnic cleansing" in this manner and it's something with which the authorities need to take control and stop.

A "long hot summer" then it seems with anyone looking at anyone else in a funny way liable to bring the mobs out on the streets for a bit of impromptu street entertainment. That's the way it is now, apparently? People get angry at the slightest thing radicalised no doubt by the misinformation and disinformation on X and elsewhere and out they come thinking somehow, well, what are they thinking?

If I may say so, your last paragraph doesn't really fit with the first one. A decapitation attempt (which you rightly describe as heinous) cannot be categorised as a slight thing.

And speedily dealt with by the police, with the culprit in custody.

So why the pogrom?

Government policy is to put more people like the person who maimed Stephen Ogilvie or the person who murdered Rhiannon Whyte into our communities. They're not just unfortunate random incidents but the predictable consequence of choices made by the state.

The state made Wayne Cousins a law enforcement officer, not once but twice. Bad people are bad people irrespective of ethnicity or occupation.

That's true. Nevertheless the noble far-right aspiration that 100% of violent crime in Britain be committed by proper British born and bred thugs, rapists and murderers cannot be achieved without mass deportations and closing the borders.

You think that if the Sudanese man who tried to behead the unfortunate guy in Northern Ireland hadn't been given leave to remain that a native citizen would have taken up their kitchen knife to do the deed themselves?

Why would I believe something as absurd as that? Crime isn't a fungible pie to be shared out. Each one is unique and wouldn't have happened but for the things leading up to it.

More In Common

Reform extend their voting intention lead to 10pts this week, with Labour and the Tories tied for second place. 

➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 20% (-2)
🌳 CON 20% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
❓OTH 3% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

N = 2,087 | Fieldwork 5-9/6 | Changes w/ 1/6

Looks like Labour will need that Burnham bounce, assuming he wins Makerfield and becomes their leader

The news has all been very Reform friendly over the last week. Harry Nowak, Northern Ireland (a bit late, I guess) and terrible immigration figures of net 100,000 p a if immigration is your thang.

Net immigration is falling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyp1ekd584o

In real world terms the number of immigrants in the UK is still increasing.

Until the number of immigrants in the UK starts to decrease (which requires negative net migration) then this will continue to be an electoral problem for any government.

In particular until the number of the 'wrong type' of immigrants starts to decrease this will continue to be an electoral problem for the government.

Hence Rupert Lowe hopes a good Restore performance in Makerfield will build momentum for its policy of mass deportations

Fuck that.

I’m not a happy clappy open borders mass inward migration sort, unlike a few here going into bat for the Epping sex pest and the Belfast Beheader, but people legally here with ILR already given should not be scared about what a future U.K. govt would do,to them

Fuck Restore

Tensions in parliament.

https://x.com/SarahForRuncorn/status/2064633511156285679

This morning in Parliament, I was accosted by Lib Dem MP Angus MacDonald, who accused me and others of inciting violence. His aggressive approach and tone left me feeling threatened and shaken.

This kind of behaviour is unacceptable, especially from fellow MPs. We all have different views and should be able to disagree respectfully.

The Lib Dems support open borders, while Reform UK supports controlled immigration and putting the British people first.

That’s not inciting violence, that’s doing what’s best for the United Kingdom.

Perhaps he should just have pointed out that she is a liar. The Liberal Democrats do not support open borders.

Then he could have moved on to their incitement of violence.

Everyone who supports a universal right to claim asylum does support open borders in some sense.

The Lib Dem’s are pretty open border.

They’d Join Schengen in a heartbeat and let pretty much anyone in.

Boo

An update on the future of Doctor Who

Today we’re announcing an update on plans for the future of Doctor Who.

As part of securing the next phase of the show for future generations, and in line with the BBC’s Charter and Agreement requirements, the BBC will put Doctor Who out to competitive tender this year. Doctor Who remains an important part of the BBC and this tender underpins the BBC’s continued commitment to Doctor Who ensuring audiences will enjoy the show for years to come.

After careful consideration, the BBC, Russell T Davies and Bad Wolf have collectively decided not to go ahead with the previously announced Doctor Who Christmas episode. This decision was not taken lightly, and we know it will be disappointing for fans, but in order to set the show up for future series, it was decided that rather than bridge the gap with a one off special, we are choosing to push forward to invest in the long-term future of the show which ensures that when the TARDIS lands once more, it does so in all its glory.

The previously announced new Doctor Who animation series for CBeebies is currently in production.

Details of the tender will be announced in due course.

The BBC retains all IP in Doctor Who. BBC Studios will continue to lead the global distribution of Doctor Who as well as licensing, consumer products, digital and immersive experiences on behalf of the BBC.

https://x.com/bbcdoctorwho/status/2064649001568543172?s=46

So it's fucked then.

Maybe they should forget the CBeebies animated version - and just regenerate the Doctor as a child...

As ever, a TV series stalls when the writers and producers make it all about them.

Time to give it a rest for a few years and find some people with fresh ideas.