Best Of
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Not much, we're relying on commentators based outside Iran - I've had more info from Omid Djalili than from any media outlet.Is any information about Iran getting out? I've heard very little.Hearing flights out of Tel Aviv are being halted without explanation.If Donnie doesn't send the boys in soon, there won't be many Iranians left. I don't normally relish this sort of thing but I hope they get Khamenei.
This might be the night Iran gets whacked.
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Find Out Now have Reform on 36% across Greater Manchester, to 24% for Labour. That makes it very reasonable for the NEC to say they don’t want a Mayoral by election,
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Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
I note Trump's approval rating has gone down slightly the last from around -12% to -14% (using Nate Silver's aggregator).
That's around the lowest level he's been at this term for any sustained period of time.
I can only imagine the latest news being negative for him. NATO supporters including Afghanistan veterans. Second amendment rights supporters. These are the sorts of groups who have significant numbers left in the "approve of Trump" camp who can be lost.
Trump's popularity within his base remains a core part of what gives him such power. If that fades sufficiently, then his attempts to overturn democracy will be harder to achieve.
That's around the lowest level he's been at this term for any sustained period of time.
I can only imagine the latest news being negative for him. NATO supporters including Afghanistan veterans. Second amendment rights supporters. These are the sorts of groups who have significant numbers left in the "approve of Trump" camp who can be lost.
Trump's popularity within his base remains a core part of what gives him such power. If that fades sufficiently, then his attempts to overturn democracy will be harder to achieve.
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Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Literally nothing has been agreed regarding Greenland anyway so once again Luckyguy is just wrongNo one thought he’d actually invade Greenland. And he didn’t get what he wanted . I see you omitted his trashing of NATO troops who died supporting the USA . He’s now given immunity to ICE to execute anyone they see fit and you’re still trying to sanewash his actions . He might not be mad but he is true evil .We were assured he was going to invade Greenland a couple of days ago. That he was a deranged dementia patient who had lost the capacity to reason, and therefore he'd as happily soak Greenland in European blood as eat his morning cornflakes.I certainly wouldn't apologise for him but what I would take it to mean is not taking each specific action on its own merits.The phrase TDS is often trotted out by trump apologists who don't want to see the whole picture.Can we lay off the pile on on Sandpit please?It seems fair to defend Trump [and the administration] on some levels - many things are arguable. TDS is still a thing.
1) He's been on the site for fucking ages; I find it vanishingly unlikely he's being paid to make pro-Trump noises.
2) I've rarely heard him make pro-Trump noises. Not thinking Trump = Hitler does not equal pro-Trump.
3) As it happens, I do think Trump roughly equals Hitler. But I am very interested in the views of a seemingly intelligent poster who does not hold that view. Why wouldn't you be?
It's ridiculous to fall into the trap of 'poster x does not hate politician y as much as I do - therefore poster x loves politician y.' We saw this with Boris too.
But justifying the shooting of someone in the street who is protesting peacefully would seem a different matter.
He might accidentally do something right. Increasingly long odds on that, perhaps.
DS applies to all politicians, including Starmer, who also manages to blunder into doing the right thing sometimes, having announced the wrong thing first.
Except it has now all been wrapped up diplomatically, he seems to have got everything he asked for, and he now says force was never on the agenda. Yet no embarrassed climb down from our resident Trump experts, just on to the next civilisation-ending outrage and hope nobody will notice.
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Lucky is just telling us who he is.No one thought he’d actually invade Greenland. And he didn’t get what he wanted . I see you omitted his trashing of NATO troops who died supporting the USA . He’s now given immunity to ICE to execute anyone they see fit and you’re still trying to sanewash his actions . He might not be mad but he is true evil .We were assured he was going to invade Greenland a couple of days ago. That he was a deranged dementia patient who had lost the capacity to reason, and therefore he'd as happily soak Greenland in European blood as eat his morning cornflakes.I certainly wouldn't apologise for him but what I would take it to mean is not taking each specific action on its own merits.The phrase TDS is often trotted out by trump apologists who don't want to see the whole picture.Can we lay off the pile on on Sandpit please?It seems fair to defend Trump [and the administration] on some levels - many things are arguable. TDS is still a thing.
1) He's been on the site for fucking ages; I find it vanishingly unlikely he's being paid to make pro-Trump noises.
2) I've rarely heard him make pro-Trump noises. Not thinking Trump = Hitler does not equal pro-Trump.
3) As it happens, I do think Trump roughly equals Hitler. But I am very interested in the views of a seemingly intelligent poster who does not hold that view. Why wouldn't you be?
It's ridiculous to fall into the trap of 'poster x does not hate politician y as much as I do - therefore poster x loves politician y.' We saw this with Boris too.
But justifying the shooting of someone in the street who is protesting peacefully would seem a different matter.
He might accidentally do something right. Increasingly long odds on that, perhaps.
DS applies to all politicians, including Starmer, who also manages to blunder into doing the right thing sometimes, having announced the wrong thing first.
Except it has now all been wrapped up diplomatically, he seems to have got everything he asked for, and he now says force was never on the agenda. Yet no embarrassed climb down from our resident Trump experts, just on to the next civilisation-ending outrage and hope nobody will notice.
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
I think the really tricky thing politically is when you intensely dislike the alternative (as Sandpit does the Dems) and so end up justifying things that you really shouldn't.Sandpit, love you lots, I have agreed with many of your historic posts and you agree with many of mine but I worry that you are doing the thing where you agree with a microcosm of something that isn’t popular and the. Go down the route of defending everything else they do because if you don’t it might feel that your belief in the small thing is undone by everything else being clearly wrong.You all keep missing the numourous critisisms.Gold goes up during times of insecurity... and who is most responsible for this recent increase in insecurity? Oh, yes, Donald Trump, your hero.Well if you bought gold a year ago, you’re about 77% up. It could go over $5,000 tomorrow.Goodness, no. https://realtrumpcoins.com/ (Go on, don't be coy, you've got one of the solid gold ones, haven't you?)Trumpcoin? No idea I’m afraid, something cryptocurrency?So good that you are getting interested in financial irregularities, Sandpit. May I draw your attention to Trumpcoin? Perhaps it passed you by. It will shock you to your sandals.There’s an estimated $9bn in NGO fraud in Minnesota.Yes, the federal prosecutors trying to prosecute Smith for daring to prosecute the fat old Paedo Protector say that it goes much further than previously claimed. Of course. That's conclusive.CBS News: the charges and convictions of the many fraud schemes in MinnesotaThat statistic is absolutely meaningless unless we know how many actual illegal immigrants there are in each state.I’ll start with Newsweek then, who say that 23.2% of all ICE detentions are in Texas, with Florida in second place.You're going to have to do better than an unsourced/unliked graphic from a person whose pinned Tweet begins with.He isn’t. There are more ICE arrests in a dozen other states, it’s simply that Minnesota is trying to play games.Simple question for you.Finally.The same Obama who, in 2012, sued the state of Arizona in order to establish federal supremacy of immigration law in the Supreme Court. That Obama?
Barack Obama
@BarackObama
·
1h
The killing of Alex Pretti is a heartbreaking tragedy. It should also be a wake-up call to every American, regardless of party, that many of our core values as a nation are increasingly under assault.
https://x.com/BarackObama/status/2015479691147149747
Perhaps he’d be better off telling Tim Walz to stand down the Antifa goons and obey the law like the other 49 states do.
Why do is the Trump administration focussing on illegal immigrants in Minnesota when say Texas has a much worse problem?
It couldn't be to do with the fact Texas has a Republican governor?
https://x.com/deepbluecrypto/status/2015428484147855685
Tim Walz and his fraudster friends are trying to stoke a civil war, that’s why the media focus is on Minnesota.
DEMOCRATS IN THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION OPENED THE BORDERS FOR POLITICAL GAINS
THEY PUT THESE IMMIGRANTS THROUGH FINANCIAL, PHYSICAL, SEXUAL AND EMOTIONAL TORTURE BY CARTELS
JOE BIDEN, KAMALA HARRIS & ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS HAVE BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS
The journey through the dense, unforgiving jungles of the Darién Gap for millions of Latin American migrants seeking refuge in America during the Biden administration was a descent into chaos, where every step courted death. Families from Venezuela, Honduras, and beyond, fleeing economic collapse and violence, embarked on this perilous trek, often starting with overcrowded buses or boats that dumped them at the jungle's edge. The physical ordeals began immediately: navigating swollen rivers that could sweep away the unwary, trudging through mud-slick trails infested with venomous snakes and insects carrying deadly diseases like malaria. Exhaustion set in quickly, with migrants carrying heavy packs under relentless rain, their feet blistering and rotting from constant wetness. Many succumbed to dehydration, starvation, or injuries from falls into ravines, their bodies left behind as grim markers for those who followed.
https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-states-ice-arrest-immigration-2107629
Maybe then go to the Vera Institute of Justice, which is tracking ICE arrests. You can barely see Minnesota on their map.
https://www.vera.org/ice-detention-trends
DuckDuckGo AI, quoting the Prison Policy Initiative:
ICE Detentions by State in 2025
Overview of Detention Numbers
In 2025, the number of individuals detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) varied significantly across different states. The following table summarizes the states with the highest number of ICE detainees:
STATE NUMBER OF DETAINEES
Texas 9,657
California 5,000
Florida 4,500
New York 3,200
Arizona 1,592
Key Points
Texas consistently held the largest number of detainees, with over 9,600 individuals in ICE custody.
California and Florida followed, with significant numbers reflecting their large immigrant populations.
New York and Arizona also had notable detainee counts, indicating active ICE operations in these states.
Most of them will be in states that border Mexico or ones with easy access to the sea. So that is where most arrests will happen. Minnesota is neither.
And given your claims about Somalian fraud turned out to be essentially a mad MAGA conspiracy theory I don't think you're on very strong ground with arguing Minnesota is a hotbed of illegal immigration.
This summer, state officials shut down a fairly new program designed to help seniors and people with disabilities find housing after discovering "large-scale fraud."
A month later, federal prosecutors charged eight people with defrauding the program, which was run through the state's Medicaid service, by enrolling as providers and submitting millions in "fake and inflated bills."
Another five people were charged with bilking the housing program in mid-December — including two Pennsylvanians with no clear connections to Minnesota who allegedly traveled there in what prosecutors described as "fraud tourism."
Prosecutors said the housing stabilization program was susceptible to fraud because it intentionally had "low barriers to entry" and few record-keeping requirements. They also noted that spending on the program had ballooned to more than $100 million last year, despite initial estimates that it would cost around $2.6 million a year.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/minnesota-fraud-schemes-what-we-know/
NY Post: Minnesota welfare fraud masterminded interviewed from prison
The convicted mastermind of the staggering $250 million welfare fraud scam in Minnesota has moaned in a jailhouse interview about having “lost everything” as she faces up to 33 years in prison.
As the head of the infamous nonprofit Feeding Our Future, Aimee Bock, 45, splurged millions of federal dollars intended to support hungry children during the COVID-19 pandemic on luxury cars, designer handbags, and properties worldwide.
Bock oversaw a network of fraudsters — almost all Somali and East African — that took advantage of a bill co-signed by Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) waiving some requirements for school meal programs during the pandemic.
https://nypost.com/2026/01/21/us-news/minnesota-welfare-fraud-leader-aimee-bock-gives-jailhouse-interview/
NY Times
Prosecutors Say Minnesota’s Fraud Scandal Goes Further Than Previously Known
Federal prosecutors said they were now investigating fraud worth billions of dollars in 14 social services programs in the state.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/us/minnesota-fraud-scandal.html
The reality is there was fraud. As there was in every state. Most notably, of course, in Florida. It was not as widespread or as serious in Minnesota as MAGA are claiming because it's essentially a highly personal smear campaign against Tim Walz, building on the really nasty false allegations they made against him in the campaign.
No wonder he's had enough and is quitting politics.
Edit - there's a detailed analysis here if you're interested in analysis rather than MAGA tinhattery:
https://lailluminator.com/2026/01/11/minnesota-child-care/
Surely, as an educator, you had a laugh at the story of the “Quality Learing Center”(sic), which had no kids but a turnover of $3m a year?
I don’t like the guy, I don’t like his type of politics, I don’t like that he insulted British soldiers, I wish he’d send thousands of missiles to Ukraine, and I think he’s causing a lot of the instability around the world right now.
I just don’t think he’s Hitler.
I can accept that I hoped that there might be benefits from Trumpism but they are massively outweighed by the wrong. I accept that hope and tiny wins are less important than the bigger picture.
Trump and his administration are beyond wrong. I admire your understandable desire to defend the few things you believe are ok and correct but it ultimately needs you to buy in to the rest of the shit.
There is absolutely nothing good about the Trump regime/movement. You don’t need to contort to defend. Just relax and accept it’s fucked and hope for a new US gov who get the old republican/small gov world if that is what you want - I do. But don’t accept this absolute abortion of government this is.
This is from someone who thinks that we are generally in agreement on life, we both live in small tax, interesting places where it comes to gov and finances but there is really no defence of the current US administration.
I think many in this country found themselves in such a position when we were asked to choose between Corbyn and Johnson as PM.
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Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Hearing flights out of Tel Aviv are being halted without explanation.HYM458 Tel Aviv-Chisinau showing as just taken off
This might be the night Iran gets whacked.
FDB2626 to Dubai lined up just behind it.
Maybe an unrelated pause.
I think they are good information points, although after the total rubbish Signalbox was feeding about trains today....
Pro_Rata
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Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Yours is a standard trope directed at people who protest. It might stem from an inability to comprehend holding a particular view, or for never having felt strongly enough about something to understand the compulsion. Often it's a deliberate way of undermining them.Not sure how you feel your bird protesting is remotely relevant to this case.I must say whenever I've gone and protested about something (LTNs, raptor persecution, stuff like that), I've always been baffled by the lack of cash I've received from Big Bicycle and the RSPB. They must have the wrong bank details.Two things can be true. ICE officers can have behaved appallingly, and ICE as a whole could be being subjected to a highly organised and well-funded professional protest movement aimed at taking it down via some questionable tactics.In all seriousness you are so wrong.Other way around, the State of Minnesota is waging a politally motivated war on Trump.If there are more ICE arrests in a dozen other states, why has the Trump administration identified Minnesota as such a hotbed of problems and sent such a large army of ICE agents there? They are not needed in Minnesota. Your own data proves that this is a politically motivated attack on the state of Minnesota.He isn’t. There are more ICE arrests in a dozen other states, it’s simply that Minnesota is trying to play games.Simple question for you.Finally.The same Obama who, in 2012, sued the state of Arizona in order to establish federal supremacy of immigration law in the Supreme Court. That Obama?
Barack Obama
@BarackObama
·
1h
The killing of Alex Pretti is a heartbreaking tragedy. It should also be a wake-up call to every American, regardless of party, that many of our core values as a nation are increasingly under assault.
https://x.com/BarackObama/status/2015479691147149747
Perhaps he’d be better off telling Tim Walz to stand down the Antifa goons and obey the law like the other 49 states do.
Why do is the Trump administration focussing on illegal immigrants in Minnesota when say Texas has a much worse problem?
It couldn't be to do with the fact Texas has a Republican governor?
https://x.com/deepbluecrypto/status/2015428484147855685
Tim Walz and his fraudster friends are trying to stoke a civil war, that’s why the media focus is on Minnesota.
This might startle you somewhat but people go on protests because they believe in something.
Eabhal
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Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Think of the opportunities - if you are up for making adverts for Union Carbide, why not adverts to be projected on the sides of buildings round the beheading sites?Special excusions to chop-chop square where beheadings can be watched after prayers every Friday. Only intending property buyers to apply. No time-wasters and dreamersIncredible line up for this Saudi real estate conference: Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Richard Branson, Tucker Carlson and Piers Morgan.The Saudis just changed the law to allow foreigners to buy property.
https://x.com/rega_ksa/status/2014697827733999907
It’s going to be as crazy as the original Dubai property boom from a couple of decades ago.
Buyer beware on the early projects though. There will be those that make millions, and those that either go bust or deliver well short of the sales pitch.
Remember that anyone ‘famous’ who appears in advertising is getting a free house out of it.
"Wilkinson Sword - for a smooth shave" ?
Re: This is a courageous move by the NEC – politicalbetting.com
Hearing flights out of Tel Aviv are being halted without explanation.
This might be the night Iran gets whacked.
This might be the night Iran gets whacked.


