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Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Sad to say, even a woman would be a breakthrough for Labour.Considerable arguements against each of them, though.Mahmood is an Asian woman.
Mahmood is an effective communicator, but do Labour MPs or members like what she communicates?
Rayner has done a bit of wilderness time, but is it enough?
And Streeting... is Streeting.
On the other hand, someone has to do the job. Which was basically the argument for Sunak and Starmer, and look how they turned out.
Labour likes white men as leader.
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Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Arguably, so would a gay man, which is a point in favour of Streeting.Sad to say, even a woman would be a breakthrough for Labour.Considerable arguements against each of them, though.Mahmood is an Asian woman.
Mahmood is an effective communicator, but do Labour MPs or members like what she communicates?
Rayner has done a bit of wilderness time, but is it enough?
And Streeting... is Streeting.
On the other hand, someone has to do the job. Which was basically the argument for Sunak and Starmer, and look how they turned out.
Labour likes white men as leader.
For next Labour leader, I have bets on Streeting at 70 from May 2021 and at 11 from November 2023, so laying a chunk of this off now at 4.9 and 5.5 seems a sensible thing to do.
IanB2
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Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Here's a thing, though.
Until very recently, "experience in one of the Great Offices" was pretty much the first line in the Person Spec to be a mid-term replacement PM.
On the basis, the shortlist ought to be Cooper, Lammy, Reeves, Mahmood, Rayner at a pinch. Not even Reeves can imagine that she has a chance, but it's striking that neither Cooper or Lammy are mentioned. Not necessarily shocking, but striking.
But paraphrasing a fictional Chief Whip, who is up to the job? You can never tell, unless you suck it and see.
Until very recently, "experience in one of the Great Offices" was pretty much the first line in the Person Spec to be a mid-term replacement PM.
On the basis, the shortlist ought to be Cooper, Lammy, Reeves, Mahmood, Rayner at a pinch. Not even Reeves can imagine that she has a chance, but it's striking that neither Cooper or Lammy are mentioned. Not necessarily shocking, but striking.
But paraphrasing a fictional Chief Whip, who is up to the job? You can never tell, unless you suck it and see.
Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Not a good idea but in principle any decision of this sort can be challenged in the courts with regard to the decision's conformity with the rules of the outfit, the lawfulness of the rules applied, any general law applying, the rationality of the decision, the process of decision making and conformity with natural justice. A court could not substitute its own decision, just invalidate the one taken already.I thought the big winner from this weekend was @TSE .Can he challenge the decision? He had to ask permission from the NEC, he asked and the NEC said no. Who would he go to to challenge it?
If he was worried about going to the poor house if Burnham stood, how many pairs of shoes can he buy when we know Burnham won't stand and won't challenge the decision.
Lawyers have to live; they have starving wives and children to feed. However, don't go there.
Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Oh yes, the man who apparently cares passionately about Greater Manchester was more than happy to see the region run by a ReFukker.On the other hand, without FPTP, Labour's NEC wouldn't have been able to wave the Reform Mayor shroud. (Which seems like a fairish point to me, and one which AB needed a plausible answer to.)Anyhoo, you've all missed the obvious.Possibly you were characteristically being too subtle there.Where’s the Game of Thrones link ?Opening line
I never watched it so wouldn’t know it.
'Whilst the blocking of Andy Burnham has the reek of desperation it was a political penectomy on Andy Burnham'
This thread is a thread about the superiority of the alternative vote to first past the post.
Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
For elections to single positions, yes.Anyhoo, you've all missed the obvious.Possibly you were characteristically being too subtle there.Where’s the Game of Thrones link ?Opening line
I never watched it so wouldn’t know it.
'Whilst the blocking of Andy Burnham has the reek of desperation it was a political penectomy on Andy Burnham'
This thread is a thread about the superiority of the alternative vote to first past the post.
For parliamentary elections, d'Hondt get me started...
Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
If Burnham was telling the truth about his reasons for wanting to return to parliament then he could achieve the same by running as an independent. Its clear therefore that his motivation was that he thought he could be PM.We know Burnham didn't do well when standing against Corbyn but if you look at the options Labour are going to be presenting he would have stood a decent chance - because the current optionds are woeful.
As to who benefits from the whole fiasco - I'm not sure that the trio mentioned in the header are the gainers. I think its more likely now that a candidate who is seen as above the squabbles will emerge. (Although admittedly I don't see them actually being able to get enough momentum in the end)
eek
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Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Burnham has moved on to portraying himself as a victim.
Like someone who suffers burns while throwing a petrol bomb.
Like someone who suffers burns while throwing a petrol bomb.
Re: The big winners from the weekend’s Labour contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Lowe at 16/1 and Corbyn at 25/1 are both ridiculously short, but I guess the return from laying them is pretty small for what might be a long wait.The way Betfair works, there isn't a logical reason why anyone would want to be on the other side of long odds lays, since you have to deposit cash upfront to cover the potential losses. So the offered odds are governed as much by interest rates as by probability.
IanB2
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