Best Of
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
I doubt so too, but that is what should be suggested to them when they complain.June 5th - "Thames Water should be nationalised, says Andy Burnham"Will Burnham grasp the nettle ?About a third of Thames Water's income goes to paying interest on its debt. Incredible.“Given that Thames Water has been going bankrupt now for 2 years hopefully we have a plan..”One reason why water was privatised was because a large amount of expensive work was required that couldn't be justified / placed on government borrowing.The water industry in the United States is predominantly in public ownership. Publicly owned municipal water utilities serve 87% of customers in the US. It's not just China.Water industry is nationalised in China, mostly privately owned now in FranceWell my point. We tried it and it has failed. Just accept some things are better nor in private ownership and call it a day. Why does the UK always decide to operate outside of every other country in Europe?There is nothing left or right about natural and essential monopolies being outside the private sector. The essence of private enterprise is free and open competition. With water this cannot happen, so you have to invent a regulator who (not very well) governs activity and profits. That is more like rentierdom.I am pretty pragmatic when it comes to public ownership but in my view if something has obviously failed in the private sector who can’t we just accept it and move on. It’s this weird idea that it can only be temporary that is terrible for long term planning.If that's all I'm left wing too, especially if Thames Water's value is £0 and its debts don't fall on the tax payer. Otherwise, it can't be done because the government's bank balance is minus £3 trillion.I think it is Burnham's willingness to take strategic monopolies such as Thames Water into public ownership.Burnham is now clearly the leftwing candidate in any Labour leadership election against Starmer and New Labour Streeting. Whereas he wasn’t in 2015 with Corbyn taking that role nor in 2010 when Ed Miliband and Abbott were the leftist candidates and he was still relatively New Labour.In this particular context what would 'leftwing' mean? Does it mean significantly more than having a particular rhetoric about how you talk politics? How does it relate policy and practicewise to: private enterprise, debt to GDP ratios, deficit, benefits, growth, NATO, overall tax levels, interest rates, migration, student loans, and so on? Unless it means different from Starmer, Tories, LDs, etc in ways that can be articulated, how are we to evaluate?
Burnham might take some encouragement from Ronald Reagan who was beaten by Nixon in the 1968 Republican primaries and narrowly by Ford in the 1976 Republican primaries. As we all remember though Reagan won the 1980 Republican primaries and then the 1980 and 1984 presidential elections. Biden also ran for the Democrats nomination in 1988 and 2008 losing to Dukakis and Obama before finally winning in 2020 the nomination and presidential election
Starmer is very reluctant because it looks too left wing, even though it is very popular with electors.
If water were in the public sector now it would not occur to right or left to privatise it any more than they plan to privatise the M1.
Given that Thames Water has been going bankrupt now for 2 years hopefully we have a plan where bond holders who have bought debt designed to pay Thames Water's owners dividends are left holding the can.
And yes that does mean there are some teachers in Canada about to lose a tiny bit of their pensions.
It’s been going bankrupt for longer than that.
Plus there’s a tiny flaw in your sentence. “Hopefully we have a plan”.
Remove the debt (because it's bankrupt) and suddenly it's profitable and cash generating.
Its investors will argue that makes it a valuable company and they should receive massive compensation.
£100b has been mentioned!
But because the company's debts far exceed its assets, existing shareholders cannot "walk away" from the debt while keeping the underlying value of the pipes and treatment plants.
If Thames Water goes bankrupt and enters the government's Special Administration Regime (SAR), its existing equity is legally wiped out and treated as completely worthless.
So there is the plan. Do SAR and its cash generation can finance better environmental protection, mend leaks, perhaps a reservoir, and hopefully a reduction in consumer prices.
Just ignore the special pleading from the Private Equity vultures which Starmer seems unwilling to do.
If the private shareholders don't like it, they could prevent administration by paying off the debt themselves, of course.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/05/thames-water-should-be-nationalised-andy-burnham
The net debt is about £18 billion. I doubt that private shareholders will pay that off!
I'm aware of Burnham's statement; I'm most interested to see if he actually does it.
Nigelb
1
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
We need social care sorting. It is a disaster area at present. If he manages to tackle it successfully he'd be far likelier to get my vote than at present, even if it involved paying.Burnham restoring the 50% additional rate of income tax certainly won’t be popular with the City. A land tax won’t be popular with landowners and developers. His proposal to increase business rates on out of town warehouses won’t be popular with Amazon. While if a rumoured Burnham social care levy hits average home owners that would destroy Burnham’s popularity as badly as the dementia tax did for May’sIf Burnham promotes policies that are generally popular then Kemi saying "He doesn't have a mandate" will fall on deaf ears, except for the Tory faithful.Which gives Kemi an opportunity, as Reform falters after these by election defeats Labour are about to elect a leader committed to tax rises and nationalisations and taking Labour left which it had no mandate for when it won the 2024 general election with StarmerMandates in manifestos don't matter in practice, except that the HOC can't oppose legislation that is in the manifesto.Policies for which there is no mandate.Burnham’s camp has said he will restore the 50% additional rate of income tax, introduce a land tax, a social care levy etc. It is not just he will renationalise utilitiesBurnham is now clearly the leftwing candidate in any Labour leadership election against Starmer and New Labour Streeting. Whereas he wasn’t in 2015 with Corbyn taking that role nor in 2010 when Ed Miliband and Abbott were the leftist candidates and he was still relatively New Labour.In this particular context what would 'leftwing' mean? Does it mean significantly more than having a particular rhetoric about how you talk politics? How does it relate policy and practicewise to: private enterprise, debt to GDP ratios, deficit, benefits, growth, NATO, overall tax levels, interest rates, migration, student loans, and so on? Unless it means different from Starmer, Tories, LDs, etc in ways that can be articulated, how are we to evaluate?
Burnham might take some encouragement from Ronald Reagan who was beaten by Nixon in the 1968 Republican primaries and narrowly by Ford in the 1976 Republican primaries. As we all remember though Reagan won the 1980 Republican primaries and then the 1980 and 1984 presidential elections. Biden also ran for the Democrats nomination in 1988 and 2008 losing to Dukakis and Obama before finally winning in 2020 the nomination and presidential election
However the House of Lords cannot block or amend taxation legislation. So a mandate is irrelevant for these measures.
If popularity depends on avoiding reality then PM Farage or Polanski it is...
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
Possibly, but don't forget Reform are going for the sexist vote (or anti-woke, if you prefer)So what exactly that she said is inaccurate;Yes, if anyone is ever going to get their finger on the pulse of Reform and working class areas like Makerfield it’s Guardian writing upper class tedious Posho, Marina Hyde.Marina Hyde analyses it rather better than does Lucky.Reflecting on the Makerfield byelection result, I think (as I said) that Burnham was the favourite going in, and never really looked troubled.On your last point - I appreciate the short term benefit of that (consolidate the hard-right vote) - but isn’t that an extremely limited strategy?
Reform would always have struggled, but I think could have performed better if they had developed an effective counternarrative against Burnham, beyond their charge that he was using Makerfield as a stepping stone. That was clearly believed by a lot of people, but it couldn't really go anywhere. I felt where Burnham was weakest was at the point of WASPI - it was an embarrassing f U-turn in real time. But for whatever reason it didn't seem that this was capitalised on.
They also had a problem with the plumber, who I don't think was a terrible candidate, but was undoubtedly damaged, particularly by the Vorderman letter to the women of Makerfield. The letter was an utterly cynical piece of confected outrage, and I think in response I would have issued an utterly cynical confected apology, and gone the 'bad boy forgiven' route. I also might have been tempted to put Kenyon up for an interrogation with someone like Kuensberg so the public could see him sweat it out. High risk, but I think many women might have seen it and ended up with some sneaking sympathy. His line would have been - 'sorry, regret my comments, however do we want a society where the only people who are allowed to hold office are people who have never said anything regrettable on social media?'.
Even with all that, I think Reform's best result would have been to be 'robbed' by Restore. That would have fit their narrative nicely. Sadly they just missed out.
Having a big argument with Lowe about split votes and precisely how many pogroms to conduct isn’t going to put Farage into No 10. At least this time they aren’t blaming “family voting”, which suggests they’ve learnt the lesson from last time.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/19/reform-candidates-nigel-farage-makerfield-prime-minister
..everything that went wrong for Reform here flowed directly from his personal character, and is going to keep happening in one way or another because people don’t change. Nigel’s gonna Nigel.
Nobody fetishises plain speaking like Farage, so we owe it to him to honour that and observe that Reform really shat the bed. Makerfield is among the party’s top 10 target seats for a general election, and Reform strategists’ decision to field yet another inadequate liability, whose past social media activity they simply couldn’t be arsed checking, seems to have proved something of a turn-off – for example for women, who strangely didn’t feel minded to vote for someone who had said: “I’m sexist, sorry but I am.” Rob Kenyon will no doubt be back on his plumbing rounds next week. So, Makerfield ladies, make sure your husband’s home to be consulted as to whether you really want your sink unblocked. It’ll honestly be cheaper to replace it.
Meanwhile it would take a heart of stone not to cackle at the fact that Reform is now losing votes to an insurgent party to its right. The thing to remember about Restore is that it is a party that genuinely only exists because Nigel couldn’t handle some light strategic criticism from Rupert Lowe. Why? Because Nigel is, and always has been, a diva who has huge fallouts with colleagues and allies...
Reform had a poor candidate?
They didn’t do a good enough job vetting him?
It’s a poor performance in their No 10 target if they are to win power?
Farage can’t take criticism?
Woman don’t like sexism?
Restore are causing them Problems?
Play the Ball, not the Woman!
Peter.
They increased their vote from the GE. The next election won't be next Thursday and Restore won't be standing against them in most seats. What they do now doesn't have much relevance to 2 or 3 years time. Of course a huge crash might show they are a spent force, but this isn't it.
Restore didn't make the difference anyway
No politician can take criticism, our system doesn't allow it.
It might be slightly sub par but I think what she said is just left-liberal wishcasting. Reform's ascent to power isn't going to be linear in any case, you expect ups and downs.
The biggest issue is the willingness of the non-Reform voter to vote tactically which I am not sure is yet understood
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
MPs do read newspapers though. There must have been at least a vague sense of it being odd?MPs don't particularly socialise (your time is divided between office and constituency, with maybe the odd dinner with colleagues), so I never had a view about Mandelson's wealth or otherwise. My only contact with him was as a Minister, in which he was fairly effective and (not all that common) had interesting ideas.Hardly a big number for Glenys. However overlapping your time NP would be Mandelson. Did it never strike you as odd that he funded his lifestyle so easily?
Not that I noticed during 13 years in Parliament - it's not that I deliberately refrained from making money, but I can't even think of an opportunity that MPs have to make it, though they're much better paid than when I first applied (£98K vs £39K IIRC). Perhaps Glenys inherited money?
Omnium
1
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
We have several homes by us in the 1 million region with one seafront home within 400 yards being fully restored and going on the market for 3 millionIn the Kinnocks Wales?Have you seen the price of houses these days?I saw recently that Glenys Kinnock's estate was valued at about £1.5million. Now she was an MEP for 15 years rather than an MP. But given that she was a teacher before entering politics, it is hard to see how she could have amassed such a fortune.Taz, and make plenty of cash, expenses, second houses. A lucrative business for useless donkeys.No labour MP went into parliament wanting to make a difficult decision. They want to open fetes, garden centres, shops, and do lots of feel good social work while not upsetting anyone.Surely the point of the Labour Party is to attempt to solve national problems with policies that match the culture of the Labour Party?I think Starmer would have worked as a change candidate were it not for winter fuel. Everything that came after was downhill but that was the initial destructive act. I supported the policy but it was utterly toxic against the new Labour coalition as to be fair many Labour MPs said at the time.The fact there has been virtually no change in Makerfield between 2024 and now suggests that it isn’t Labour that’s the problem, it’s Keir Starmer.The underlying problem is the country wants changes that are 1) too expensive for our budget and/or 2) implausible. So any candidate representing the status quo is going to lose to a change candidate for the next decade at least. Policies, values etc are not that important, if we had a Conservative or Reform govt they would be extremely unpopular too.
Burnham has gone too early - he should have taken over in 2027 and portrayed himself as a change candidate in 2028. It will be very difficult to portray himself as a change candidate when he has been there for a couple of years.
Mandelson would have been easily survivable by somebody with more popularity.
From a party POV, he should have made benefit reform a confidence issue and then quit then if it hadn’t passed. Letting that go just gave the PLP the magic money tree. Burnham will have to grapple with that too but he will start with goodwill.
The WFA cut seemed like an attempt of cod-Thatcherism. No Labour MP went into politics to cheer cutting benefits.
You want to reduce the welfare bill, but are a Labour PM? What do Labour MPs like? Benefits targeted to the poorest, perhaps?
So announce all the old age extras are going in a blender. The result will be means tests/taxed, so as to target the poorest pensioners.
Then you sell that to the MPs as a reform that makes the poor better off, while being fiscally prudent.
Politics is clearly about money for the politicians.
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
So what exactly that she said is inaccurate;Yes, if anyone is ever going to get their finger on the pulse of Reform and working class areas like Makerfield it’s Guardian writing upper class tedious Posho, Marina Hyde.Marina Hyde analyses it rather better than does Lucky.Reflecting on the Makerfield byelection result, I think (as I said) that Burnham was the favourite going in, and never really looked troubled.On your last point - I appreciate the short term benefit of that (consolidate the hard-right vote) - but isn’t that an extremely limited strategy?
Reform would always have struggled, but I think could have performed better if they had developed an effective counternarrative against Burnham, beyond their charge that he was using Makerfield as a stepping stone. That was clearly believed by a lot of people, but it couldn't really go anywhere. I felt where Burnham was weakest was at the point of WASPI - it was an embarrassing f U-turn in real time. But for whatever reason it didn't seem that this was capitalised on.
They also had a problem with the plumber, who I don't think was a terrible candidate, but was undoubtedly damaged, particularly by the Vorderman letter to the women of Makerfield. The letter was an utterly cynical piece of confected outrage, and I think in response I would have issued an utterly cynical confected apology, and gone the 'bad boy forgiven' route. I also might have been tempted to put Kenyon up for an interrogation with someone like Kuensberg so the public could see him sweat it out. High risk, but I think many women might have seen it and ended up with some sneaking sympathy. His line would have been - 'sorry, regret my comments, however do we want a society where the only people who are allowed to hold office are people who have never said anything regrettable on social media?'.
Even with all that, I think Reform's best result would have been to be 'robbed' by Restore. That would have fit their narrative nicely. Sadly they just missed out.
Having a big argument with Lowe about split votes and precisely how many pogroms to conduct isn’t going to put Farage into No 10. At least this time they aren’t blaming “family voting”, which suggests they’ve learnt the lesson from last time.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/19/reform-candidates-nigel-farage-makerfield-prime-minister
..everything that went wrong for Reform here flowed directly from his personal character, and is going to keep happening in one way or another because people don’t change. Nigel’s gonna Nigel.
Nobody fetishises plain speaking like Farage, so we owe it to him to honour that and observe that Reform really shat the bed. Makerfield is among the party’s top 10 target seats for a general election, and Reform strategists’ decision to field yet another inadequate liability, whose past social media activity they simply couldn’t be arsed checking, seems to have proved something of a turn-off – for example for women, who strangely didn’t feel minded to vote for someone who had said: “I’m sexist, sorry but I am.” Rob Kenyon will no doubt be back on his plumbing rounds next week. So, Makerfield ladies, make sure your husband’s home to be consulted as to whether you really want your sink unblocked. It’ll honestly be cheaper to replace it.
Meanwhile it would take a heart of stone not to cackle at the fact that Reform is now losing votes to an insurgent party to its right. The thing to remember about Restore is that it is a party that genuinely only exists because Nigel couldn’t handle some light strategic criticism from Rupert Lowe. Why? Because Nigel is, and always has been, a diva who has huge fallouts with colleagues and allies...
Reform had a poor candidate?
They didn’t do a good enough job vetting him?
It’s a poor performance in their No 10 target if they are to win power?
Farage can’t take criticism?
Woman don’t like sexism?
Restore are causing them Problems?
Play the Ball, not the Woman!
Peter.
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
Just as the quality of politicians is declining. I shudder to think of the future former politicians who will become President.Yes, my error.The Duchy of Lancaster is the private estate of the monarch.The Duchy is the property of the state not the monarch, I believe ?So what? Profits of the Crown Estate and duchies fund the royals not taxpayers beyond security. They also need secure cars to protect them wherever they travelIn any normal country this kind of shit would get the tumbrils rolling, but here it'll be 'they deserve it!', just like sending their sprog to £60k a year Eton.Yeah, absolutely nothing grubby about the Haus Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha currently degrading the country with their loathsome presence.Why anyone would want a professional politician with all the grubbiness and politics that causes (look at burnham and his bothering of an electorate to gain personal power) over a constitutional monarch is beyond meTaking back control...So she says but she never pushed it as PM for a reason nor are the current NZ PM or LOTO
Jacinda Ardern: ‘New Zealand will become a republic in my lifetime’
https://www.thetimes.com/world/australasia/article/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-interview-kkppf03f9
Plenty of New Zealand polls for keeping a constitutional monarch over a politician head of state too
https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/10/22/nz-citizens-keen-to-stay-wedded-to-the-monarchy/
It's Trump with an RP accent.
Nina
@ShakeLS
·
18 Jun
The British Royal family using a fleet of very expensive cars to move around from Ascot to Windsor. You keep paying for them and all their gifter associates hahahaha 😂 😜
https://x.com/ShakeLS/status/2067446704215867700?s=20
(Edit) or is slowly on the way to becoming so.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duchy_of_Cornwall
On the latter point, other models are available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_monarchy
The Duchy of Cornwall is the private estate of the heir.
The Crown Estate is the property of the crown but the income is reserved as a result to the nation.
But as noted, their status is slowly changing. It's a dance between the monarchy and parliament, but the latter is gradually asserting its powers, and I think that will be a one way ratchet.
1
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
An estate of £1.5 million, including property, is a healthy amount, but it’s not exceptional. Let me quote a website…I saw recently that Glenys Kinnock's estate was valued at about £1.5million. Now she was an MEP for 15 years rather than an MP. But given that she was a teacher before entering politics, it is hard to see how she could have amassed such a fortune.Taz, and make plenty of cash, expenses, second houses. A lucrative business for useless donkeys.No labour MP went into parliament wanting to make a difficult decision. They want to open fetes, garden centres, shops, and do lots of feel good social work while not upsetting anyone.Surely the point of the Labour Party is to attempt to solve national problems with policies that match the culture of the Labour Party?I think Starmer would have worked as a change candidate were it not for winter fuel. Everything that came after was downhill but that was the initial destructive act. I supported the policy but it was utterly toxic against the new Labour coalition as to be fair many Labour MPs said at the time.The fact there has been virtually no change in Makerfield between 2024 and now suggests that it isn’t Labour that’s the problem, it’s Keir Starmer.The underlying problem is the country wants changes that are 1) too expensive for our budget and/or 2) implausible. So any candidate representing the status quo is going to lose to a change candidate for the next decade at least. Policies, values etc are not that important, if we had a Conservative or Reform govt they would be extremely unpopular too.
Burnham has gone too early - he should have taken over in 2027 and portrayed himself as a change candidate in 2028. It will be very difficult to portray himself as a change candidate when he has been there for a couple of years.
Mandelson would have been easily survivable by somebody with more popularity.
From a party POV, he should have made benefit reform a confidence issue and then quit then if it hadn’t passed. Letting that go just gave the PLP the magic money tree. Burnham will have to grapple with that too but he will start with goodwill.
The WFA cut seemed like an attempt of cod-Thatcherism. No Labour MP went into politics to cheer cutting benefits.
You want to reduce the welfare bill, but are a Labour PM? What do Labour MPs like? Benefits targeted to the poorest, perhaps?
So announce all the old age extras are going in a blender. The result will be means tests/taxed, so as to target the poorest pensioners.
Then you sell that to the MPs as a reform that makes the poor better off, while being fiscally prudent.
Politics is clearly about money for the politicians.
Figures released by HM Revenue & Customs have revealed that the number of deceased estates valued at more than £1 million has risen by over one-third in five years.
In 2013-14, there were 8,340 estates worth over a £1million, whilst in 2018-19 the number stood at 11,210.
Inflation since then has been high. £1 million in 2013-4 is basically £1.5 million now. G Kinnock was working as an MEP. She presumably inherited from her husband, who was at the top of UK politics. If they bought property in London in the 1970s, they would’ve benefited from the property boom. This seems a weird example to claim politicians are just in it for the money,
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
Have you seen the price of houses these days?I saw recently that Glenys Kinnock's estate was valued at about £1.5million. Now she was an MEP for 15 years rather than an MP. But given that she was a teacher before entering politics, it is hard to see how she could have amassed such a fortune.Taz, and make plenty of cash, expenses, second houses. A lucrative business for useless donkeys.No labour MP went into parliament wanting to make a difficult decision. They want to open fetes, garden centres, shops, and do lots of feel good social work while not upsetting anyone.Surely the point of the Labour Party is to attempt to solve national problems with policies that match the culture of the Labour Party?I think Starmer would have worked as a change candidate were it not for winter fuel. Everything that came after was downhill but that was the initial destructive act. I supported the policy but it was utterly toxic against the new Labour coalition as to be fair many Labour MPs said at the time.The fact there has been virtually no change in Makerfield between 2024 and now suggests that it isn’t Labour that’s the problem, it’s Keir Starmer.The underlying problem is the country wants changes that are 1) too expensive for our budget and/or 2) implausible. So any candidate representing the status quo is going to lose to a change candidate for the next decade at least. Policies, values etc are not that important, if we had a Conservative or Reform govt they would be extremely unpopular too.
Burnham has gone too early - he should have taken over in 2027 and portrayed himself as a change candidate in 2028. It will be very difficult to portray himself as a change candidate when he has been there for a couple of years.
Mandelson would have been easily survivable by somebody with more popularity.
From a party POV, he should have made benefit reform a confidence issue and then quit then if it hadn’t passed. Letting that go just gave the PLP the magic money tree. Burnham will have to grapple with that too but he will start with goodwill.
The WFA cut seemed like an attempt of cod-Thatcherism. No Labour MP went into politics to cheer cutting benefits.
You want to reduce the welfare bill, but are a Labour PM? What do Labour MPs like? Benefits targeted to the poorest, perhaps?
So announce all the old age extras are going in a blender. The result will be means tests/taxed, so as to target the poorest pensioners.
Then you sell that to the MPs as a reform that makes the poor better off, while being fiscally prudent.
Politics is clearly about money for the politicians.
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
Hardly a big number for Glenys. However overlapping your time NP would be Mandelson. Did it never strike you as odd that he funded his lifestyle so easily?Not that I noticed during 13 years in Parliament - it's not that I deliberately refrained from making money, but I can't even think of an opportunity that MPs have to make it, though they're much better paid than when I first applied (£98K vs £39K IIRC). Perhaps Glenys inherited money?I saw recently that Glenys Kinnock's estate was valued at about £1.5million. Now she was an MEP for 15 years rather than an MP. But given that she was a teacher before entering politics, it is hard to see how she could have amassed such a fortune.Taz, and make plenty of cash, expenses, second houses. A lucrative business for useless donkeys.No labour MP went into parliament wanting to make a difficult decision. They want to open fetes, garden centres, shops, and do lots of feel good social work while not upsetting anyone.Surely the point of the Labour Party is to attempt to solve national problems with policies that match the culture of the Labour Party?I think Starmer would have worked as a change candidate were it not for winter fuel. Everything that came after was downhill but that was the initial destructive act. I supported the policy but it was utterly toxic against the new Labour coalition as to be fair many Labour MPs said at the time.The fact there has been virtually no change in Makerfield between 2024 and now suggests that it isn’t Labour that’s the problem, it’s Keir Starmer.The underlying problem is the country wants changes that are 1) too expensive for our budget and/or 2) implausible. So any candidate representing the status quo is going to lose to a change candidate for the next decade at least. Policies, values etc are not that important, if we had a Conservative or Reform govt they would be extremely unpopular too.
Burnham has gone too early - he should have taken over in 2027 and portrayed himself as a change candidate in 2028. It will be very difficult to portray himself as a change candidate when he has been there for a couple of years.
Mandelson would have been easily survivable by somebody with more popularity.
From a party POV, he should have made benefit reform a confidence issue and then quit then if it hadn’t passed. Letting that go just gave the PLP the magic money tree. Burnham will have to grapple with that too but he will start with goodwill.
The WFA cut seemed like an attempt of cod-Thatcherism. No Labour MP went into politics to cheer cutting benefits.
You want to reduce the welfare bill, but are a Labour PM? What do Labour MPs like? Benefits targeted to the poorest, perhaps?
So announce all the old age extras are going in a blender. The result will be means tests/taxed, so as to target the poorest pensioners.
Then you sell that to the MPs as a reform that makes the poor better off, while being fiscally prudent.
Politics is clearly about money for the politicians.
Omnium
2




