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Jacob Rees_Mogg says the Tories should stand aside for ReformUK in Denton & Gorton.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lILQAd8XG7c

Well Jacob Rees_Mogg can just sod off, this is a democratic country where no matter how small the Conservative vote is in this constituency that small minority of voters still deserve to have the right to vote for the party of their choice in this by-election! Voters already have the powerful tool of tactical voting if they so wish, but its just wrong to simple deny those that don't want to do this the right to vote for the party of their choice regardless of the impact on other parties candidates chances and the eventual outcome of the result.

Reform are currently digging themselves a big hole with their gimmicky do as we say, but not as we do idea of democracy. They don't appear to believe in giving their own party members a voice in leadership contests, and despite just weeks ago when they were campaigning to make defecting MPs hold by-elections, they and their newly defected Conservative MPs are now refusing to hold by-elections in these constituencies. So this protest party is good at talking the talk, but not walking the walk so much. The Reform party has now become the new UKIP fiefdom just as it was run and controlled by Nigel Farage on Trump steriods!

Now to say that I am not a fan of Reform Scotland would be an understatement, I really find it utterly depressing that we are going to lose so many good opposition MSPs who are either standing down or will lose their seats in the May election because Reform are going to split the Opposition vote even further and this will probable let another SNP/Scottish Green coalition back into power for another five years while Holyrood remains utterly broken and not fit for purpose with no hope of that changing under them if they get another term in power.

But there are clearly people in Scotland who support and want to vote for Reform as the polling shows, but you will not ever see me asking this party not to fight the Holyrood election in May and because the best way to beat them is to make the argument that while they are quite rightly another choice they don't have the best policies to sort Scotland's issues out and they will in so many seats and the List vote split the Opposition vote further and let the SNP with the Scottish Greens back into power for another five years.

If you follow Scottish politics closely enough, you will sadly know of some of the real talent on the Opposition benches who are already standing down and leaving in May and who have given up in frustration while having made an amazing contribution to Holyrood and were passionate about making it a more effective and accountable Parliament that delivered for the public rather than the now too powerful North Korean level secretive SNP administration that now has seen one brave Scottish journalist come out and call it a banana republic as so many of us have been saying for ages with barely any interest from the UK media...

The question about the "North Korean" level of secrecy amongst the SNP is not just a matter of political tactics. There are more than credible rumours about decisions taken under Salmond and Sturgeon that suggest that camper vans are merely the tip of the iceberg. If we look at the behaviour of the SNP in recent years, it becomes a whole lot easier to understand if we assume that they have something to hide. Many have suggested that corruption - hanging together to avoid being hanged separately- lies at the heart of SNP discipline. The SNP are, and should be, a fading force. Unfortunately both the political culture at Holyrood, and a lot of self serving in the Scottish government continues to support the SNP status quo. More and more Scots want to see the changes you suggest, but the silent centralisation on Bute House is fossilizing an inept, even corrupt political culture in place.

It will not end well.

Does the polling imply that voters believe Farage less able to deliver on policy than even Starmer ?😲

If it is like 2005 then implication is that if Farage supports it then enough voters think it must be a bad idea and they'll switch support for it to make a material difference.

The problem for Reform is Farage is marmite. Some love him but plenty despise him due to Brexit. They won’t overcome that and that will harm them.

I don't think they just despise him due to Brexit. It's also the racism and grifting.

Personally I think its his highly punchable face, but whatever.

Does the polling imply that voters believe Farage less able to deliver on policy than even Starmer ?😲

If it is like 2005 then implication is that if Farage supports it then enough voters think it must be a bad idea and they'll switch support for it to make a material difference.

The problem for Reform is Farage is marmite. Some love him but plenty despise him due to Brexit. They won’t overcome that and that will harm them.

I don't think they just despise him due to Brexit. It's also the racism and grifting.

And because many more sensible voters know the smell of snake oil...

"@LukeTryl

Labour leapfrog into second in this week’s voting intention on 22%. Reform’s lead drops to 7 on 29%, with the Tories third on 20%.

➡️ REF UK 29% (-2)
🌹 LAB 22% (+2)
🌳 CON 20% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 13% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 10% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

MoreInCommon
N = 2,016 | 23 - 25/01| Change w 21/01

Leader approvals - it’s very close at the top with Davey on -12 and Badenoch and Farage on -14. Starmer is far behind on -41 though this is higher than he’s been since Autumn, which from qual seems to reflect a recurring international affairs bounce."

https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2016426715556262299

9 of the last 13 polls have Reform under 30.

The teal balloon is definitely deflating (presumably leaking Zyklon-B). Probably a combination of the tory asylum seekers, the MAGA adjacency and attenuation of the novelty factor.