Best Of

Opinium for the Observer, changes from a fortnight ago

Ref 27 (-2)
Lab 21 (=)
Con 17 (+1)
Grn 15 (+1)
LD 12 (+2)

Starmer best rating for 6 months at -38

I know it's a stupid question with a bajillion moving parts, but where is the likely tipping point between Reform narrowly winning everywhere to them narrowly losing everywhere?

I hope to cover this soon but my rough and ready calculation says it isn't about the vote share but the range between the parties, at is roughly 4% between the top 3.

It is entirely possible that the party that wins the popular vote at the next general elections finishes fourth in seats.

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181

BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann

If this happens my forecast of a modest recession is going to need to be upgraded.

I think we're about four weeks away from a depression.

At work we've already made contingencies for a full scale WFH within weeks, like March 2020.

Fill your tanks lads and lasses. Present prices are extortionate but they may well get a hell of a lot worse.

You say that, but...




Part of the reason we are so vulnerable to this crisis is that our incentives for the switch to EVs have been so distorted. Norway registered seven petrol cars last year. Seven.

That chart is quite compatible with fuel prices being extortionate.

Our price is mostly tax, which does not go on the roads. It is extortionate.

There's a simple choice, get an EV.

I charge our EVs at 6p per kWh.

Only because you’re rich, have a private driveway, and good credit to buy an expensive new car.

If you’re poor, live in an apartment, and have crap credit, that isn’t an option.

EVs are one of the most significant wealth transfers from poor to rich in decades.

Why don’t the poor just make more money?

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181

BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann

If this happens my forecast of a modest recession is going to need to be upgraded.

I think we're about four weeks away from a depression.

At work we've already made contingencies for a full scale WFH within weeks, like March 2020.

Fill your tanks lads and lasses. Present prices are extortionate but they may well get a hell of a lot worse.

You say that, but...




Part of the reason we are so vulnerable to this crisis is that our incentives for the switch to EVs have been so distorted. Norway registered seven petrol cars last year. Seven.

That chart is quite compatible with fuel prices being extortionate.

Our price is mostly tax, which does not go on the roads. It is extortionate.

There's a simple choice, get an EV.

I charge our EVs at 6p per kWh.

While my local petrol station offers to charge EVs at 75p per kWh.

We need a solution for those who don't have private driveways, not an "I'm alrite Jack" attitude.

@TSE - how are you getting electricity at 6p/ kwh? I'm on the Octopus flexible tarriff which since the Iran war seldom goes uch below 20, even at night. It used to go down to practically 0 overnight, but alas no more.

I am on a 12 month fixed EV tariff that started in January.

With which supplier?

Eon

Currently is 8p per kWh but thankfully I fixed it for 6p.

https://www.eonnext.com/tariffs/next-drive/smart

Thanks. I reckon I'm about 4 months off getting an EV so starting to consider that sort of detail.

Sorry why is WFH back on the menu?

Because staff won't have enough petrol to get into work and secondly if you're not in the early part of a three year deal as a business your energy costs are going to go through the roof from the summer onwards so it is cheaper to close to the office.

And the wider benefits of reducing demand for those who really need it - emergency services, goods deliveries etc etc

We're going to have a de facto lockdown.

Don't be alarmist.

This was the scenario my bank (with a little input from myself) on the 3rd of March.

Planes no longer flying in that area/getting shot down. ME countries might not have the weapons to stop the missiles/drones.

Think the Ever Given on speed.

Very little oil leaving the area so the West seizes up.

A limited US invasion of Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz.

Increase in fuel prices destroys demands and savings defaults increase.

A nuke/dirty bomb being deployed by either side.

Not quite Threads.

MERS 2.

So the world economy seizes up.

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5473921#Comment_5473921

I've been thinking Trump is probably capable of nuking Iran if he got desperate enough but the fall out would effect neighboring allies wouldn't it? That would mean Trump selling his allies down the river and of course, he wouldn't do that....

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181

BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann

If this happens my forecast of a modest recession is going to need to be upgraded.

I think we're about four weeks away from a depression.

At work we've already made contingencies for a full scale WFH within weeks, like March 2020.

Fill your tanks lads and lasses. Present prices are extortionate but they may well get a hell of a lot worse.

You say that, but...




Part of the reason we are so vulnerable to this crisis is that our incentives for the switch to EVs have been so distorted. Norway registered seven petrol cars last year. Seven.

That chart is quite compatible with fuel prices being extortionate.

Our price is mostly tax, which does not go on the roads. It is extortionate.

There's a simple choice, get an EV.

I charge our EVs at 6p per kWh.

While my local petrol station offers to charge EVs at 75p per kWh.

We need a solution for those who don't have private driveways, not an "I'm alrite Jack" attitude.

@TSE - how are you getting electricity at 6p/ kwh? I'm on the Octopus flexible tarriff which since the Iran war seldom goes uch below 20, even at night. It used to go down to practically 0 overnight, but alas no more.

I am on a 12 month fixed EV tariff that started in January.

With which supplier?

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181

BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann

If this happens my forecast of a modest recession is going to need to be upgraded.

I think we're about four weeks away from a depression.

At work we've already made contingencies for a full scale WFH within weeks, like March 2020.

Fill your tanks lads and lasses. Present prices are extortionate but they may well get a hell of a lot worse.

You say that, but...




Part of the reason we are so vulnerable to this crisis is that our incentives for the switch to EVs have been so distorted. Norway registered seven petrol cars last year. Seven.

That chart is quite compatible with fuel prices being extortionate.

Our price is mostly tax, which does not go on the roads. It is extortionate.

There's a simple choice, get an EV.

I charge our EVs at 6p per kWh.

While my local petrol station offers to charge EVs at 75p per kWh.

We need a solution for those who don't have private driveways, not an "I'm alrite Jack" attitude.

@TSE - how are you getting electricity at 6p/ kwh? I'm on the Octopus flexible tarriff which since the Iran war seldom goes uch below 20, even at night. It used to go down to practically 0 overnight, but alas no more.