Best Of
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
73% don't support Reform. Up from 71%.Opinium for the Observer, changes from a fortnight agoThank goodness 85% don't support the Greens.
Ref 27 (-2)
Lab 21 (=)
Con 17 (+1)
Grn 15 (+1)
LD 12 (+2)
Starmer best rating for 6 months at -38
Getting there...
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
The Mail on SundayI'd say it's more Israel and its government doing their best to drag the UK into a conflict they started for exclusively their own purposes.
Sarah Ferguson explored a TV project to clone the late Queen’s corgis, with replicas sold worldwide. Talks with Hollywood producers framed it as a way to raise funds. Critics cite welfare and ethics concerns, noting pet cloning is costly, uncertain and controversial.
The Sunday Telegraph
Israeli government explains to Starmer that Iranian missiles can now hit UK, and encourage UK to join with them in the National Interest of UK Security. Starmer and his government doing their best to cover this up, and hide the facts behind: security concerns restricts what can be discussed.
kinabalu
4
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
Sorry why is WFH back on the menu?Because staff won't have enough petrol to get into work and secondly if you're not in the early part of a three year deal as a business your energy costs are going to go through the roof from the summer onwards so it is cheaper to close to the office.
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
Opinium for the Observer, changes from a fortnight agoThank goodness 85% don't support the Greens.
Ref 27 (-2)
Lab 21 (=)
Con 17 (+1)
Grn 15 (+1)
LD 12 (+2)
Starmer best rating for 6 months at -38
1
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
I think we're about four weeks away from a depression.https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181If this happens my forecast of a modest recession is going to need to be upgraded.
BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann
At work we've already made contingencies for a full scale WFH within weeks, like March 2020.
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
So, I'm a little confused by his analysis.There is a lot of guff spoken about renewables - the biggest piece of guff about them being that they are cheaper than gas. This is a provable untruth, but it is still repeated with the same enthusiasm as a North Korean ovation for Kim Jong Un.I didn't say on here. But out there in politics world Reform fuckheads - and they are fuckheads - have filled people's head with all kinds of guff about renewables.There are positives from this war, even if we do see energy prices go gaga.Not sure I have seen many people on here say Iintead of renewables.
We could be pretty self-sufficient as a nation. And have made huge strides forward in recent years. Reform fuckheads smashed the Milliband / Cameron / May / Boris / Sunak consensus on renewables. But "lets get rid of wind and solar and use more oil and gas" looks not just really stupid but practically traitorous.
Whilst I wholly agree with the voices saying lets drill more oil / gas, those same voices also lean towards "instead of renewables". It should be "in addition to renewables"
Most of the commentary has been instead of importing oil and gas. Something with which I think you agree.
The fuckhead - to use your rather florid term - is Miliband who somehow thinks importing hydrocarbons is more climate friendly than using our own.
Milliband is a dick, but he is less wrong than Tice et al who want us to turn our energy security over to Putin.
A 2025 Substack by David Turver has this useful table (you may have to blow it up if PB does a micropic):
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/renewables-are-more-expensive-than-gas
Now, granted, this was in May 2025.
The current gas price has shot through the roof - AI has it currently at £126 per megawatt hour. That makes it still cheaper than any renewable bar solar on CFD.
For natural gas he has the cost as #75 per MW/h, which is #61 fuel, and #15 carbon credits.
Which raises a little bit of a question: like how are you capturing operating and capital costs? #75 might be the marginal cost of production for an existing gas plant (i.e. the point at which the value of electricity exceeds the cost of fuel and carbon credits).
But it's not a fully loaded price. Nobody would build a CCGT if you only got the price of fuel plus the price of carbon credits. You need to get your capital and operational costs covered too.
So, it seems he's comparing the cost of energy from existing plants (excluding operating costs), agains the fully loaded cost of a KwH from other sources. He also doesn't seem to capture capacity payments in there, which is a little lazy.
rcs1000
6
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
@atrupar.comIf anyone ever had any doubt about Trump's guilt that nails it. Mueller did a reasonable job within the ridiculous constraints, and Barr then put a spin on his summary, and the Congress completely flunked holding Trump to account, but dozens of other people were successfully prosecuted.
Trump: “Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
glw
1
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
@chadbourn.bsky.socialHave to be "senior" to be allowed to tell that big a lie...
A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera that Iran was not behind the missile attacks on Diego Garcia and denies any involvement.
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
More that Norway has savage taxes on ICE - always did.Perhaps that's because they're not thick enough to stop exploiting their own hydrocarbons, therefore they have plenty of money to make the switch.You say that, but...Fill your tanks lads and lasses. Present prices are extortionate but they may well get a hell of a lot worse.I think we're about four weeks away from a depression.https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181If this happens my forecast of a modest recession is going to need to be upgraded.
BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann
At work we've already made contingencies for a full scale WFH within weeks, like March 2020.
Part of the reason we are so vulnerable to this crisis is that our incentives for the switch to EVs have been so distorted. Norway registered seven petrol cars last year. Seven.
When the Model S Tesla came out, since EVs were exempt from the tax, it was cheaper than a small hatchback.
So right from the start, EVs were the cheapest option, by far.
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2035453862920728630Being stolen doesn't mean you can't get the messages. For most people, using most apps, on most phones, they'd be restored when signing into your accounts again.
EXCL: Morgan McSweeney's mobile phone with texts to Peter Mandelson was stolen.
These messages may be lost forever - meaning there there will be gaps in The Mandelson files published by No10.
glw
2



