Best Of

Afternoon all.
Was taking a look at the Reform polling decline after last nights Opinium. They were last as low as 27 with them straddling the 2025 LEs (only a couple of 29s since, all others 30 plus) and were at 27 with them as far back as Jan 2025. The same goes for YouGov and Find Out Now - back to pre LE 2025 levels.with other pollsters they are running a point to two points above the run in to 2025 LEs.
The point i think that will prove crucial is that they are hitting these levels on a sharpish downward trajectory and not the sharp upward one early 2025 saw. This suggests at least the possibility of an undershoot versus expectations. Im of the opinion as we stand that this will show itself in a very poor Holyrood showing (possibly even falling below the Tories, LDs or Greens in seats, very probably below Labour), a poor London result, perhaps 4th in wards won and no more than 1 or 2 councils and failing to come first in Wales. Then id take a look at thr 73 seats they are defending - how many of them are lost?

The polls may turn of course and they have the virtual standing start premium of lots of gains but the potential for narrative shift exists

As you say though in most polls Reform are polling about as well as before the LE2025, they are about tied in Wales for the lead, likely to win the most or second most list seats at Holyrood and make gains in outer London suburbs. We are a long way yet from saying Reform are in real decline

Doing 30 braking versus doing 30 accelerating.

Unless heavy tactical anti Reform votes this year though Reform will likely see similar gains, especially in the country council and redwall large town and northern and Midlands cities voting and in Wales

I am not so sure about Farage in Wales as I once was. Yes, we love the racism and misogyny, but has the gloss been taken off by Nathan Gill and Farage's recent assertion that Welsh is a foreign language and Welsh language speakers who don't want to speak English can f*** off from where their ancestors came from in 800 AD and earlier. Eight hundred AD some years, it is worth mentioning is before the Huguenot Farage's ancestors left France.it is worth mentioning

Goodwin seems about as careful and credible an author as Naomi Wolf.

EXC: .@GoodwinMJ’s new book “Suicide of a Nation: Immigration, Islam, Identity” is out now, and I’m only 5 chapters in and have found a huge amount of what appears to be false quotes and basic misinterpretations of data, that appear to be AI hallucinations.

Matthew, can you explain the claims you made in the book that I’ve outlined in the below thread? ..
https://x.com/andytwelves/status/2035669425567744140

Wasn’t one of his research projects complete BS.

He’s not an academic anymore by any sense of the word. He’s a right wing grifter and has moved Reform into a very stupid direction in my view.

They have become completely obsessed with Islam and vote rigging since Gorton.

I’m not sure he was ever an academic. I met him at the Transatlantic Studies Conference in Nottingham in 2005. He was working on his PhD at the time. After dinner, a group of us sat outside with drinks putting the world to rights. My former supervisor was there, a couple of academics I respected from here and across the Atlantic, a number of postgrads, etc.

At some point, Goodwin piped up and started pontificating on various issues (none of which we had actually been speaking about, so desperate was his need to be heard or involved) and reflected not only his interest in the right but also Roger Eatwell’s (his supervisor) interest in populism. The wonderful Ken Kennard - who was then a reader at Kent (I think) and never short of a story or two from a previous life - muttered “who the f*** let Genghis in?”

Badenoch made a big mistake supporting the war. It’s not fatal but it shows she still doesn’t really understand the pool she is supposed to be swimming in.

I get the kneejerk "support America" notion. Ordinarily that would have been the way forward for a Conservative leader.

But Gilead isn't America. It used to be, but isn't. And backing the paedo king is not a long term strategy...

I don't get it, and it shouldn't be the reflexive action for a conservative leader, regardless of who is running the US. As a matter of fact, ruinous foreign conflicts that cause chaos and have no plausible off-ramp are not a unique feature of Trump's US - they are the norm for that country.

However, the attention is now going to switch to the domestic impact of the war, and here the Tories are on far safer ground, because they are on the record opposing loony Net Zero policies and supporting drilling the North Sea. Unless Sir Useless does another very big u-turn here, it is going to get very messy for him.

Hang on, the "loony net zero policies" are Tory policies. Leader after leader after leader. On the day Liz Truss blew up her government it was an opposition debate on Fracking and the SofS stood there are the dispatch lauding their policies on net zero and renewables.

So they're not "loony net zero". They are the established and consensual policies of both parties.

Also worth bearing in mind that although the true loon Ed Miliband has accelerated the retreat from the North Sea, it was the Tories who started this madness with their open ended windfall tax madness.

Indeed on a wider front this is Badenoch's problem. So many of the Labour policies she is now deriding and opposing were initially introduced by the Tories including when she was in Cabinet.

And the electorate rejected them. So you come back with a different offer.

It's not really a problem for Kemi. She wasn't running the previous Tory Government, and she wasn't fronting any of the Net Zero bits. Since becoming leader, she has been clear and on the record in opposing the current Net Zero plans, and wanting to drill in the North Sea. The Government's energy policy is in tatters, and this will be a feeding frenzy. Sir will find it very difficult to move Milliband on, but the longer he takes the worse it will be.

Increasing North Sea drilling would do nothing to help UK energy prices in this time of crisis. Prices are set on global markets and increased North Sea drilling would have little impact on global supply.

It might alter the global price of oil a shade, but what it will do is enable the UK exchequer to take advantage of the price spike, offsetting some of the economic impact. Increasing the gas supply however can absolutely affect the domestic price.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2035730140953461069

’ The president doing this is crucial. I've seen the polling, but I really hope the American people will be with him because he's doing this to make the whole world safer" -- NATO Secretary Mark Rutte

What is Rutte's game? Is it to try and prevent Trump going full tonto and abolishing NATO?

Whatever it is, it's well outside of his brief, which he NATO policy.
He should not be speaking for European foreign policy outside of that.

I think he fancies himself as a 'Trump whisperer'. Or is just trying to stay personally relevant. Or is engaged in some attempted soft cop hard cop dynamics. Whatever, I wish he'd desist.

I think Malcolm is correct.

Any adult who calls Trump 'Daddy' has issues and not helped if you are head of NATO

Badenoch made a big mistake supporting the war. It’s not fatal but it shows she still doesn’t really understand the pool she is supposed to be swimming in.

I get the kneejerk "support America" notion. Ordinarily that would have been the way forward for a Conservative leader.

But Gilead isn't America. It used to be, but isn't. And backing the paedo king is not a long term strategy...

I don't get it, and it shouldn't be the reflexive action for a conservative leader, regardless of who is running the US. As a matter of fact, ruinous foreign conflicts that cause chaos and have no plausible off-ramp are not a unique feature of Trump's US - they are the norm for that country.

However, the attention is now going to switch to the domestic impact of the war, and here the Tories are on far safer ground, because they are on the record opposing loony Net Zero policies and supporting drilling the North Sea. Unless Sir Useless does another very big u-turn here, it is going to get very messy for him.

Hang on, the "loony net zero policies" are Tory policies. Leader after leader after leader. On the day Liz Truss blew up her government it was an opposition debate on Fracking and the SofS stood there are the dispatch lauding their policies on net zero and renewables.

So they're not "loony net zero". They are the established and consensual policies of both parties.

Also worth bearing in mind that although the true loon Ed Miliband has accelerated the retreat from the North Sea, it was the Tories who started this madness with their open ended windfall tax madness.

Indeed on a wider front this is Badenoch's problem. So many of the Labour policies she is now deriding and opposing were initially introduced by the Tories including when she was in Cabinet.

And the electorate rejected them. So you come back with a different offer.

It's not really a problem for Kemi. She wasn't running the previous Tory Government, and she wasn't fronting any of the Net Zero bits. Since becoming leader, she has been clear and on the record in opposing the current Net Zero plans, and wanting to drill in the North Sea. The Government's energy policy is in tatters, and this will be a feeding frenzy. Sir will find it very difficult to move Milliband on, but the longer he takes the worse it will be.

Increasing North Sea drilling would do nothing to help UK energy prices in this time of crisis. Prices are set on global markets and increased North Sea drilling would have little impact on global supply.

Except this is not strictly true in reality. Or at least it would not be if we had kept a sensible energy policy.

One of the consequences of shutting down the UK North Sea has been the massive knock on effect on refineries. This has not yet impacted petrol refining but has massively reduced the capacity for diesel refining. So we have to import a lot more diesel which makes it both more expensive on a day to day basis and more prone to the impact of sudden jumps in the oil price.

This is why the price of diesel has jumped far more than petrol.

And given that so much of our distribution network relies on diesel transport this is also why the issues in the Middle East will have a much bigger effect on inflation..

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2035730140953461069

’ The president doing this is crucial. I've seen the polling, but I really hope the American people will be with him because he's doing this to make the whole world safer" -- NATO Secretary Mark Rutte

What is Rutte's game? Is it to try and prevent Trump going full tonto and abolishing NATO?

Europe lacks the leadership of a Tony Blair, so he feels the need to step up and stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Trump.

You've managed to cheer me up there, William. There isn't much to be thankful for right now, with this Iran craziness, but you’ve managed to find something - as the Middle East flares up bigtime yet again Europe lacks the leadership of a Tony Blair.