Best Of

I suspect the infamous, statistically irrelevant, Find Out Now poll has allowed Labour to frame the narrative as a two horse race between them and Reform

Labour being 5/1 against on Betfair suggests no-one sees this as a 2-horse race with Labour. Was that a typo in the header and Greens was meant?

Betfair's prices are:-
Green 1.86 (implying a 54% chance of taking the seat)
Reform 3.15 (or 32%)
Labour 6.2 (or 16%)

My feeling is Labour is value at the price but I've nothing to go on other than it ought to be a safe Labour seat which is why Burnham wanted it. Unless Labour activists effectively strike over Burnham's rejection by the NEC, which is possible, 11/2 looks too big. That said, the market probably knows more than me. The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

In the constituency and on social media, Labour are pumping out bar charts like this.

'I expect all the main traditional parties will be doing similar at the next GE ie only Labour-Tories-LDs can beat Reform here (and the Greens can also do that in the 4 seats they hold)

I am waiting for the Lib Dems to formally complain about that bar chart.

Go on, make my Monday.'

Tories, Labour, Greens, they are all using LD barcharts now given the rampaging Reform hordes coming over the parapets of their seats and given their common enemy is also the LD enemy I doubt Davey will complain

I suspect the infamous, statistically irrelevant, Find Out Now poll has allowed Labour to frame the narrative as a two horse race between them and Reform

Labour being 5/1 against on Betfair suggests no-one sees this as a 2-horse race with Labour. Was that a typo in the header and Greens was meant?

Betfair's prices are:-
Green 1.86 (implying a 54% chance of taking the seat)
Reform 3.15 (or 32%)
Labour 6.2 (or 16%)

My feeling is Labour is value at the price but I've nothing to go on other than it ought to be a safe Labour seat which is why Burnham wanted it. Unless Labour activists effectively strike over Burnham's rejection by the NEC, which is possible, 11/2 looks too big. That said, the market probably knows more than me. The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

In the constituency and on social media, Labour are pumping out bar charts like this.

'I expect all the main traditional parties will be doing similar at the next GE ie only Labour-Tories-LDs can beat Reform here (and the Greens can also do that in the 4 seats they hold)

I am waiting for the Lib Dems to formally complain about that bar chart.

Go on, make my Monday.'

Tories, Labour, Greens, they are all LD barcharts now given the rampaging Reform hordes coming over the parapets of their seats

(Edit - formatting seems to be messed up... my bit below)
You may be interested to learn that my daughter was telling me that all her friends (who mostly voted LD) are all now planning to vote Conservative in Brentwood and Ongar to keep Reform out, if things stay as they are.

As may I in Romford, now Rosindell has defected. I may need a large drop of brandy before and after if it comes to that!

I think there is a trend there. Soft/Centrist Tories found a temporary home with the LibDems rather than holding there noses and voting Reform. Certainly a trend here on the South Coast.

Off topic and one for the economic historians. When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

The Bretton Woods Conference in (I think) 1944?

Russian TV is getting more and more unhinged by the day.

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2018214371139182770

Here’s the news anchor saying that Russia need to send nukes into space to take out Starlink satellites, SpaceX blocked Russian drones from using them over Ukraine.

They somehow got hold of a batch of them from somewhere, and SpaceX took about 48 hours working with Ukranian intelligence to get the Russian ones shut down without affecting the legitimately-obtained Ukranian receivers.

(He has no idea how Starlink actually works, with thousands of tiny satellites).

Where America leads, the rest of the world shall follow.

The Kepler constellation (now renamed Amazon LEO) is being launched now.

The Chinese are beginning several. And have applied to the ITU to put 200,000 satellites in orbit. That’s right, two hundred thousand.

ESA/Arisne are declaring that Ariane 6 is awesome and there is no need, in Europe for reusable launch. Just yet. Maybe in a few years.

Does nobody regret that our view of the night sky is being ruined?

I suspect the infamous, statistically irrelevant, Find Out Now poll has allowed Labour to frame the narrative as a two horse race between them and Reform

Labour being 5/1 against on Betfair suggests no-one sees this as a 2-horse race with Labour. Was that a typo in the header and Greens was meant?

Betfair's prices are:-
Green 1.86 (implying a 54% chance of taking the seat)
Reform 3.15 (or 32%)
Labour 6.2 (or 16%)

My feeling is Labour is value at the price but I've nothing to go on other than it ought to be a safe Labour seat which is why Burnham wanted it. Unless Labour activists effectively strike over Burnham's rejection by the NEC, which is possible, 11/2 looks too big. That said, the market probably knows more than me. The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

In the constituency and on social media, Labour are pumping out bar charts like this.

'I expect all the main traditional parties will be doing similar at the next GE ie only Labour-Tories-LDs can beat Reform here (and the Greens can also do that in the 4 seats they hold)

I am waiting for the Lib Dems to formally complain about that bar chart.

Go on, make my Monday.'

Tories, Labour, Greens, they are all LD barcharts now given the rampaging Reform hordes coming over the parapets of their seats

(Edit - formatting seems to be messed up... my bit below)
You may be interested to learn that my daughter was telling me that all her friends (who mostly voted LD) are all now planning to vote Conservative in Brentwood and Ongar to keep Reform out, if things stay as they are.

As may I in Romford, now Rosindell has defected. I may need a large drop of brandy before and after if it comes to that!

Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
Better late than never.

For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.

If the PM wants to try and get ahead of the story, he needs to straight up admit it was his mistake, and/or that Mandelson lied to him, and offer an unequivocal apology.

As most people who have ever met Mandelson know, he is a straight forward shit. Indeed a friend who was a senior figure in the broadcast media when Mandelson was beginning his rise to New Labour fame, and despite his own pro-Labour views, described PM as "genuinely the most evil" politician he had ever dealt with.

The comments here, at the time of his appointment were pretty clear eyed that he was a devious and untrustworthy shit- at best. If the flotsam and jetsam of PB knew that PM was a wrong 'un, then the idea that Starmer did not is simply for the birds. he took the risk, knowing it was a risk, and perhaps reassured by some bromides from the Dark Lord, that he could be effective in using his back channels with the TrumpScum. Well, as they say, that has not gone well.

We can only hope that this greedy. unscrupulous, sinister, vain and -yes- evil man has finally been expelled from the British body politic, The doors should not just be closed behind him, but slammed.

My conclusion, after a number of decades experience, is that if someone looks dodgy, or incapable, or naive, or narcissistic, is that they almost certainly are. Taking people at face value usually is the best course.

And pay attention to what they ACTUALLY say. Don't be too clever about it. Don't interpret.

Ishmael, formerly of this parish used to say ‘if someone shows you who they are, believe them’

Sage advice.

Ishmael culturally appropriated it from Maya Angelou.

I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.

I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

I suspect we are very much into breeches of the Official Secrets Act at the very least..

Question for Starmer: "If evidence of this had come across your desk while you were head of the CPS, would you have chosen to prosecute?"

I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.

Is there not a Big House, where we take those whom we no longer trust to safely remain part of society?

There's an empty Big House in the middle of Dartmoor I believe. Ideal.

A bit of Radon never did anyone any harm.

Newcastle United players displaying all the class I would expect from them.

Watch: Newcastle mascot abandoned by players before Liverpool defeat

Club say they were unaware of the incident but pledge to make amends with the young supporter

Newcastle United will reach out to the family of a mascot who was left standing alone on the pitch at Anfield after she had been ignored by the club’s players before kick-off.

Telegraph Sport contacted senior figures at the club after a video circulated on social media of the young girl looking lost and confused before Newcastle’s 4-1 defeat by Liverpool on Saturday evening.

Club officials were not aware of the incident but have pledged to look into what happened and to put things right for the young supporter.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/02/01/watch-newcastle-mascot-abandoned-by-players-liverpool/

Compare the entitled Geordies how they treat a mascot to how Sunderland, their near neighbours, how they treated little Bradley Lowery.

I guess that’s Saudi money for you.

Nice to see Villa lose too.

Villa were massively outperforming xG, and now they've regressed to the mean. Backing them while every shot they had was going in while none of those they faced did was like buying into a bubble