Best Of

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?

Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.

Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.

Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.

Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:

- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough.
- Ref UK committed to reverse.
- Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.

One to watch.

(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.)
-

I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.

What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.

That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.

I am a convert to the 20, after being opposed to it in the start. The roads in towns are so much safer. You can also pull out easily from side roads.

Most newer cars also have a limiter which means you don't have to keep monitoring your speed.

I was chatting to a chap from South Wales the other week. He says he loves driving at exactly 20 mph and watching the queue build up behind him. And if they get too close, he'll slow to 18...

There are a few who do this, but it in itself is dangerous causing anger and tailgating, even unsafe overtaking

The speed in these 20mph zones is not enforced until you reach 27mph

As far as the present position is, most councils are or have reviewed and reinstated some of the 30mph which have generally been accepted

I know someone who got done for 24 in a 20 mph zone in London and Google AI says 24 - 25.

I'm currently having lessons for my Advanced Drivers Test and speed limits are important for that and I struggle with some 20 and 30 limits at the margins and also don't want the distraction of keep checking so I am going to set my limiter on. Annoyingly I got told off for driving too slowly on my last lesson at one point on a country lane. They expect good progress. It was a bit weird as my wife thinks I drive too fast on country lanes.

The rule of thumb is a 20% margin of error - 10% for your speedometer and 10% for the police device. So 24 in a 20, or 84 on the motorway

Behave yourself. This is a full time job for me. Enforcement threshold is 10% + 2mph.

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?

Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.

Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.

Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.

Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:

- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough.
- Ref UK committed to reverse.
- Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.

One to watch.

(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.)
-

I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.

What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.

That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.

I am a convert to the 20, after being opposed to it in the start. The roads in towns are so much safer. You can also pull out easily from side roads.

Most newer cars also have a limiter which means you don't have to keep monitoring your speed.

I was chatting to a chap from South Wales the other week. He says he loves driving at exactly 20 mph and watching the queue build up behind him. And if they get too close, he'll slow to 18...

Jimmy Carr speed limit joke (50 seconds, language nsfw):-
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3dM7IF1HB1A

Starmer/Reeves in full panic and change IHT for farmers

Have they said they'd reverse that? I'd be surprised. It would lead to a revolt not least from me.

BBC News - Government waters down inheritance tax plan for farms
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e9n3y28g1o

This is the best Christmas present me, my family and my friends could have had. I can now safely sleep at night, that is how bad it has been. Especially for those older than me with serious health issues. Bad news for agricultural valuers of course who would have made a fortune over the arguing the toss over the values of farms. It takes my estate out of the danger zone and so we can now look forwards to building the shed which we have needed for many years.

I had expected this to become a jockeying point when the new Labour leader was selected or else it to be put off for a year, and a year and a year.

They pointed the shotgun at the whole farming industry. We stood up to them and they have blinked. But we won't forget, no we won't forget ...

That is the whole point

The farmers will not forgive or vote labour because of this

They also voted en masse for Brexit and then realised they had screwed themselves. They are the ultimate selfish opportunists who believe the world owes them a living. Of course they won't vote labour.

British farmers do appear to be cretinous, as a class.
Brexit is exhibit 1.

However, if you care about land use and food quality, then you need to care about farmers.

Reeves’s problem is she actively hates much of the country, including farmers.

The amount of political capital burnt in this thing is incredible. Ultimately, the correct decision, tax should be targeted at investors and companies buying land. The vast majority of farm estates will now be exempt, providing they make use of the £5m spouse allowance

Maybe you’re a farmer, or live rurally.
I’m not, I live in Manhattan FFS.

But the solution here is obvious to both of us.

How the hell does Reeves and Treasury get it so wrong?

The Labour party are no longer the party of postmen, coal miners, unionised workers and the working man (and woman) they are stuffed full of policy nerds, think tank advisers and Politics grads with less business experience than your average 5 year old

Starmer/Reeves in full panic and change IHT for farmers

Have they said they'd reverse that? I'd be surprised. It would lead to a revolt not least from me.

BBC News - Government waters down inheritance tax plan for farms
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e9n3y28g1o

This is the best Christmas present me, my family and my friends could have had. I can now safely sleep at night, that is how bad it has been. Especially for those older than me with serious health issues. Bad news for agricultural valuers of course who would have made a fortune over the arguing the toss over the values of farms. It takes my estate out of the danger zone and so we can now look forwards to building the shed which we have needed for many years.

I had expected this to become a jockeying point when the new Labour leader was selected or else it to be put off for a year, and a year and a year.

They pointed the shotgun at the whole farming industry. We stood up to them and they have blinked. But we won't forget, no we won't forget ...

That is the whole point

The farmers will not forgive or vote labour because of this

They also voted en masse for Brexit and then realised they had screwed themselves. They are the ultimate selfish opportunists who believe the world owes them a living. Of course they won't vote labour.

British farmers do appear to be cretinous, as a class.
Brexit is exhibit 1.

However, if you care about land use and food quality, then you need to care about farmers.

Reeves’s problem is she actively hates much of the country, including farmers.

The amount of political capital burnt in this thing is incredible. Ultimately, the correct decision, tax should be targeted at investors and companies buying land. The vast majority of farm estates will now be exempt, providing they make use of the £5m spouse allowance

The people benefiting from this change are those sitting on a highly tax efficient asset worth many millions who quite sincerely and genuinely want to keep it that way and don't see why they should pay the same tax as say someone running a productive business.

We have to concede an extremely effective lobbying exercise by wealthy landowners but we don't really need to agree with the principle of it. It's far more egregious than WFA for example.

Those who are genuinely worried about family farming would be far better off looking at *incomes* - for instance, supermarket buying practices - and food security.

But this lobbying has been all about protecting capital investment.

It's like houses - those who have houses are treated far better than those without when it comes to IHT. No wonder the values are distorted.

Sure it is about protecting capital values. If I had the capital I would want to protect it too. Land values are artificially boosted because of their usefulness in tax avoidance. One of the consequences of this is to make farming unaffordable unless you own the land already.

Starmer/Reeves in full panic and change IHT for farmers

Have they said they'd reverse that? I'd be surprised. It would lead to a revolt not least from me.

BBC News - Government waters down inheritance tax plan for farms
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e9n3y28g1o

This is the best Christmas present me, my family and my friends could have had. I can now safely sleep at night, that is how bad it has been. Especially for those older than me with serious health issues. Bad news for agricultural valuers of course who would have made a fortune over the arguing the toss over the values of farms. It takes my estate out of the danger zone and so we can now look forwards to building the shed which we have needed for many years.

I had expected this to become a jockeying point when the new Labour leader was selected or else it to be put off for a year, and a year and a year.

They pointed the shotgun at the whole farming industry. We stood up to them and they have blinked. But we won't forget, no we won't forget ...

That is the whole point

The farmers will not forgive or vote labour because of this

They also voted en masse for Brexit and then realised they had screwed themselves. They are the ultimate selfish opportunists who believe the world owes them a living. Of course they won't vote labour.

British farmers do appear to be cretinous, as a class.
Brexit is exhibit 1.

However, if you care about land use and food quality, then you need to care about farmers.

Reeves’s problem is she actively hates much of the country, including farmers.

The amount of political capital burnt in this thing is incredible. Ultimately, the correct decision, tax should be targeted at investors and companies buying land. The vast majority of farm estates will now be exempt, providing they make use of the £5m spouse allowance

The people benefiting from this change are those sitting on a highly tax efficient asset worth many millions who quite sincerely and genuinely want to keep it that way and don't see why they should pay the same tax as say someone running a productive business.

We have to concede an extremely effective lobbying exercise by wealthy landowners but we don't really need to agree with the principle of it. It's far more egregious than WFA for example.

Those who are genuinely worried about family farming would be far better off looking at *incomes* - for instance, supermarket buying practices - and food security.

But this lobbying has been all about protecting capital investment.

It's like houses - those who have houses are treated far better than those without when it comes to IHT. No wonder the values are distorted.

IHT is theft!

(I didn't press the troll button by accident did I when quoting you?)

What I cannot get my head around is the principle of IHT allowances which penalise people according to what assets they own. The most obvious is the RNRB - a couple with an estate worth £1m and children etc., their estate pays 140K tax or not at all depending on whether they rent or own their house.

Hey that's how the Tory party wanted things to work - and remember for some strange reason UK Governments want houses to be expensive and restricted...

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?

Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.

Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.

Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.

Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:

- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough.
- Ref UK committed to reverse.
- Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.

One to watch.

(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.)
-

I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.

What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.

That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.

I am a convert to the 20, after being opposed to it in the start. The roads in towns are so much safer. You can also pull out easily from side roads.

Most newer cars also have a limiter which means you don't have to keep monitoring your speed.

I was chatting to a chap from South Wales the other week. He says he loves driving at exactly 20 mph and watching the queue build up behind him. And if they get too close, he'll slow to 18...

There are a few who do this, but it in itself is dangerous causing anger and tailgating, even unsafe overtaking

The speed in these 20mph zones is not enforced until you reach 27mph

As far as the present position is, most councils are or have reviewed and reinstated some of the 30mph which have generally been accepted

Public Service announcement!

That is patently untrue. The 27mph prosecution trigger is a myth.

I hate the 20mph default, it is not easy to adhere to without the limiter deployed, but if it has saved the life of just one child (and the stats are compelling) it is worth its weight in Go Safe fines.

Team Nigel and the Tories are indulging in a Labour style hostage to fortune culture for demanding the return to a default 30mph limit. If there was any non-right wing media left they would be all over the change of speed limit on news of the first avoidable fatality.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/20mph-speed-limit-update-wales-32892181

What do PC think?

Don't know, tbh, but they certainly tend to be cautious about alienating their core supporters. Hence their opposition to the banning of fox-hunting when it was introduced by Blair - didn't want to antagonise the sheep farmers.

Do we know where they stand over the latest development, banning drag-hunting?

Not devolved, is it? In which case it's academic. But no, I dunno, nor can I find anything new.

Well, yes and no.

Technically academic in that Labour can push the ban through the Commons regardless of the potential opposition of a handful of PC MPs.

But this is politics: who do you stand with, and what are your values? What's most important: animal welfare or trad country pursuits?

In the case of Plaid, do they back their rural core-voters as they did in the late 90s which would give Welsh Labour a line of attack, or close that off and risk the ire of the farmers of Caernarfon and Ceredigion?

Starmer/Reeves in full panic and change IHT for farmers

Have they said they'd reverse that? I'd be surprised. It would lead to a revolt not least from me.

BBC News - Government waters down inheritance tax plan for farms
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e9n3y28g1o

This is the best Christmas present me, my family and my friends could have had. I can now safely sleep at night, that is how bad it has been. Especially for those older than me with serious health issues. Bad news for agricultural valuers of course who would have made a fortune over the arguing the toss over the values of farms. It takes my estate out of the danger zone and so we can now look forwards to building the shed which we have needed for many years.

I had expected this to become a jockeying point when the new Labour leader was selected or else it to be put off for a year, and a year and a year.

They pointed the shotgun at the whole farming industry. We stood up to them and they have blinked. But we won't forget, no we won't forget ...

That is the whole point

The farmers will not forgive or vote labour because of this

They also voted en masse for Brexit and then realised they had screwed themselves. They are the ultimate selfish opportunists who believe the world owes them a living. Of course they won't vote labour.

British farmers do appear to be cretinous, as a class.
Brexit is exhibit 1.

However, if you care about land use and food quality, then you need to care about farmers.

Reeves’s problem is she actively hates much of the country, including farmers.

The amount of political capital burnt in this thing is incredible. Ultimately, the correct decision, tax should be targeted at investors and companies buying land. The vast majority of farm estates will now be exempt, providing they make use of the £5m spouse allowance

Train drivers on up to £80,000 a year categorised as ‘working class’

The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/train-drivers-working-class-salaries-ons-fql8dbhjm

Detectives in the police force would be earning at least as much as train drivers if not more.

More police officers are likely to be graduates than train drivers too, though being a train driver is a skilled and important job

Just had a look at pay scales. Fuck me Im underpaid as a senior lecturer at a top 10 U.K. uni… Should have followed Dads footsteps into the police.

Only be high heid yins getting that cash, inspectors and above for sure, lower ranks will be less