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Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch

Here’s how they related to welfare:

“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.

“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”

I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.

He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:

- in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax
- If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare
- At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers
- Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression
- Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations

That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending

Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression

Morning all.
With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war!
108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?

Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.

The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader

Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.

I disagree, for personal reasons

What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)



The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.

Not long after I was diagnosed with high-functioning autism - more than two decades ago now - I was told that I could claim for Disability Living Allowance (which PIP replaced).

It's possible to construct a logical argument that my life is more difficult than a normal person's as a result of being autistic (and therefore would qualify), but I took (and take) the view that it wasn't so much more difficult that I wanted to go through the process of persuading someone that I was mentally disabled and incapable enough to require financial assistance from the state. There has to be a threshold somewhere, and it surely shouldn't be so low that I would qualify.

It might be that the large percentage increases (most likely from a low base) are due to people being encouraged to claim in similar circumstances, with improved diagnosis of young women with high-functioning autism or other conditions that are moderately debilitating.

FWIW, my wife also never made a claim, despite her condition (hypermobile EDS) preventing her from working, because we've been able to live off my income, and making a claim felt like it would take more effort than she had, which she'd rather use for something more enjoyable.

The system seems to be simultaneously too difficult for many genuinely needy to claim, and yet paying out to a credulity-straining number of people.

Morning all.
With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war!
108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?

Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.

The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader

Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.

I disagree, for personal reasons

What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)



The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.

Um, it's growth statistics. Growth from 10 to 30 is an increase of 200%, but growth from 1,000,000 to 1,100,000 is an increase of 10%. You need to know the absolute change as well as the relative change.

I'd be a DK, DK, and stay out of it.

Not to say the rationale for action isn't there, but we're a small country with few resources, little influence and huge debt. Countries like that need to sing small and it doesn't necessarily rule out an 'honest broker' role at some point.

Good morning, everybody.

Well, I think we need a bit of context here before we accept that the UK is a small and weak state.

In a world of 193 nation states, The UK has the sixth largest economy in the world. Britain has internationally respected armed forces, including a significant nuclear arsenal, and it is a major player in NATO. It is a permanent member of the United Nations security council.
In terms of largest government debt, British public debt per capita is well behind Japan, the US, Canada, France, Ireland and Italy and not radically worse than Germany,
In terms of soft power, the English Language is the most widely spoken in the world, British regulations in shipping, insurance, finance, are generally adopted internationally, British pop music is arguably the most listened to across the planet.

Admittedly we have allowed ourselves to be overshadowed by the United States, but objectively the UK is not insignificant. I take your point that we still have convening power, but we also have kinetic power, although we would not choose to use it in the middle east.

Morning all.
With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war!
108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?

Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.

The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader

Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.

I disagree, for personal reasons

What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)



The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.

It could be an example of this: