Best Of

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

One of my fears is that Ukraine cannot keep up this intensity of warfare indefinitely, and that as the support from Europe falters, they may reach a breaking point before Russia does. And then, when Russia wants to have another go at Europe, they will benefit from Ukrainian industry and the Ukrainian people that they have coerced into fighting for them.

Europe reeks of a desperation for peace. It only emboldens Russia to push for more.

Zelensky has already said he would agree to a ceasefire on current lines, as has Europe but Putin wants more than that which they reject

Russia can keep on pushing for more because Putin has the security of knowing that he can offer a ceasefire at any time, and there is no question that it will be accepted. There is thus no risk for him that in pushing for more he might risk Russian becoming overextended and losing some of what he has. The European desperation for peace thus encourages Putin to prolong the war.

The only way to break out of this dynamic is to commit to a strategy for victory.

If Europe were that desperate for peace they would already have accepted Putin's preferred peace terms.

There is zero chance of forcing Russia out of Ukraine until Trump leaves office and a new Democrat President might give the extra funds and arms needed for Zelensky to be able to do so, at best a ceasefire on current lines is all that can be done for now

That's just not true.
While I acknowledge it's unlikely, since their various leaders are just too cautious, Europe has the capacity on its own to defeat Putin. But it would require a serious collective commitment which isn't yet there.

It's not impossible that the Trump overreach and outright hostility towards Europe leads to the penny dropping.
I'm not betting on it but it's considerably more than a non zero chance.

It would need massive austerity and slashing of welfare states and health budgets or massive tax rises to fund massive increases in European arms manufacturing to send to Ukraine which European electorates just aren't willing to do. The slight increase in defence budgets already approved is all they will back but that can at best ensure stalemate, not victory without US support as well

It really wouldn't. Russia's GDP is approximately $2.2trn. EU GDP is $21trn and ours is another $3.6 trn so our combined GDP is comfortably more than 10X Russia's. Russia had a massive advantage in terms of stored hardware at the start of the war but that is now almost completely exhausted. What is required is the will and in particular the willingness to break with the US by acting unilaterally and contrary to their apparent wishes. That is not an easy decision given the role the US has played in our defence for 80 years now but I think it is inevitable that break will come.

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

Britain probably not best placed to advise others on European unity, unfortunately.

That sounds like the whole history of European 'unity' with each country looking for its own advantage over the other members of the Union

Oh sure, and the French are the absolute worst but I think it takes a certain lack of self awareness to think that a country that has done more than any other in recent years to weaken European unity and advance Putin's divide and rule strategy has any credibility in this space.

In terms of defence Britain has done far more to strengthen Europe than any of the traditional EU major players. You only have to look at the JEF or the Mutual Defence Pact that the UK signed with Sweden and FInland prior to their accession to NATO. This is proper practical stuff rather than just talking about it. And it cannot be hindered by the pro-Russian elements within the EU.

India is about to start producing drones for Russia's war in Ukraine. Europeans are desperately talking about peace to keep in with Trump, but the peace talks seem to be only a diversion to stop Europe from using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight for survival.

The situation feels really bleak, and reportedly Starmer was the driving force behind pushing the target data for NATO's new 5% spending target out to 2035, so the British PM is a main component in the axis of denial in Europe that is holding it back from grasping the reality of the precarious position Europe is in and of taking decisive action to turn things around.

What's the good news?

Starmer should take a leaf out of President Trump's book and warn Modi that any drones will trigger the immediate cancellation of all Indian visas. He won't, of course. Something something international law.

Partly, but mostly realpolitik that we aren't the USA and even the USA struggles with its demands from countries the size of India.

Actually Britain and America are equally important for the Indian diaspora. Russia, on the other hand, is not.

Good luck convincing Modi to take orders from Starmer.....

Modi depends on a lot of NRI money and the UK has a huge and fairly enthusiastic support base for Modi. Banning all types of work and student visas as well as suspending the new trade deal would be appropriate IMO. Maybe even putting up restrictions on visitor visas. I say this as a British Indian so it brings me little joy to suggest such measures but supplying Russia with drones that will be used to kill people in Ukraine is beyond acceptable and we shouldn't accept it. Even if it means our tourist and education sectors suffer for a while.

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

One of my fears is that Ukraine cannot keep up this intensity of warfare indefinitely, and that as the support from Europe falters, they may reach a breaking point before Russia does. And then, when Russia wants to have another go at Europe, they will benefit from Ukrainian industry and the Ukrainian people that they have coerced into fighting for them.

Europe reeks of a desperation for peace. It only emboldens Russia to push for more.

IMHO, enough of Europe is willing to back Ukraine so as to enable them to keep fighting. Of course, we need to do more than that. Just turn on the taps, in terms of supplying money and munitions.

Reposting this from the end of the last thread, as I think the endgame of whether or not Europe stands up to the Trump administration's attempt to sell out Ukraine, and our future security, is rather nearer in time even than the next change of Tory leader.

Necessary reading for any remaining apologists for the geostrategic nonsense the US administration is currently perpetrating.

WARNING: LONG THREAD 🧵
Dear Americans,
Your political and media class has sold you a very convenient fairy tale for decades - the tale of how your tax dollars pay to defend freeloading Europe.

While it's an emotionally satisfying narrative, it's also wrong.

THE U.S. DOES NOT SUBSIDIZE EUROPEAN DEFENCE.

You are not running a charity, you are running an empire. And empires are costly.

Your forward deployments, your bases, your carrier groups, etc. - they are the pillars of a global security architecture that mainly serves you: to protect your trade routes, your currency, your corporate supply chains, your ability to project force anywhere on the planet in hours and days, not months.

Let’s walk through this like adults, and not emotional toddlers, shall we?..
https://x.com/BiankaB12/status/1997407679556485515

If, as seems likely, we're going back to 'spheres of influence' geopolitics, then Europe (for which I primarily mean the UK and the EU) have two choices:

1) Accept being a part of the US's sphere of influence. That's probably looks much like the status quo for the UK or France, but looks far more perilous the further east you go. As it would be up to the US and Russia to agree the boundaries between their respective spheres of influence.

2) Demand that Europe is collectively has it's own independent sphere of influence, and that we are willing to defend our boundary from Russia's, assuming no help or support from the US. In which case, I'd question why we'd continue to host bases from the US.

Not allowing Ukraine to be forced to capitulate to American demand is a key first step to establishing option 2 as our future.

Reposting this from the end of the last thread, as I think the endgame of whether or not Europe stands up to the Trump administration's attempt to sell out Ukraine, and our future security, is rather nearer in time even than the next change of Tory leader.

Necessary reading for any remaining apologists for the geostrategic nonsense the US administration is currently perpetrating.

WARNING: LONG THREAD 🧵
Dear Americans,
Your political and media class has sold you a very convenient fairy tale for decades - the tale of how your tax dollars pay to defend freeloading Europe.

While it's an emotionally satisfying narrative, it's also wrong.

THE U.S. DOES NOT SUBSIDIZE EUROPEAN DEFENCE.

You are not running a charity, you are running an empire. And empires are costly.

Your forward deployments, your bases, your carrier groups, etc. - they are the pillars of a global security architecture that mainly serves you: to protect your trade routes, your currency, your corporate supply chains, your ability to project force anywhere on the planet in hours and days, not months.

Let’s walk through this like adults, and not emotional toddlers, shall we?..
https://x.com/BiankaB12/status/1997407679556485515

Reposting this from the end of the last thread, as I think the endgame of whether or not Europe stands up to the Trump administration's attempt to sell out Ukraine, and our future security, is rather nearer in time even than the next change of Tory leader.

Necessary reading for any remaining apologists for the geostrategic nonsense the US administration is currently perpetrating.

WARNING: LONG THREAD 🧵
Dear Americans,
Your political and media class has sold you a very convenient fairy tale for decades - the tale of how your tax dollars pay to defend freeloading Europe.

While it's an emotionally satisfying narrative, it's also wrong.

THE U.S. DOES NOT SUBSIDIZE EUROPEAN DEFENCE.

You are not running a charity, you are running an empire. And empires are costly.

Your forward deployments, your bases, your carrier groups, etc. - they are the pillars of a global security architecture that mainly serves you: to protect your trade routes, your currency, your corporate supply chains, your ability to project force anywhere on the planet in hours and days, not months.

Let’s walk through this like adults, and not emotional toddlers, shall we?..
https://x.com/BiankaB12/status/1997407679556485515

Where the Americans do have a point is that the do not owe us anything and we have been very content to sit under their umbrella. Of course it suited the Americans too when confronting the USSR but the key was always their interests, not ours. Now that they have lost interest in Russia (except as a source of bribes, natch) we have to look after ourselves. Which is fair enough but also a somewhat uncomfortable adjustment.

The Americans have zero point at the moment, and to pretend we should treat their attitude with any sympathy is absurd.

If they were saying as you do that we have to look after ourselves, then it would be a betrayal of an alliance which has lasted since shortly after the end of WWII. It would be a massive detriment to both them and us, but if they are so determined, then fair enough, so be it.

But they are not saying that.

They have abandoned any pretence of funding Ukraine; they have made it clear that they will not materially participate in any postwar security guarantees; but they nonetheless are trying to dictate what is in effect a partial surrender on Russia's terms - while simultaneously trying to cut commercial deals with Putin.

That would destroy Europe's security for a generation. We should not be allowing that.