Best Of

On topic, I've essentially given up on the Conservatives.

They are totally irrelevant in opposition - even if Reform do engage in bouts of fratricide - and Labour are finding it perfectly possible to enact policies they espoused in govt but never followed through upon because they were more interested in pissing contests.

Right now, I expect the decline to continue and, if nothing changes, for them to go backwards even further at the next GE.

Serious question - and putting VAT on private schools to one side, if you can - as someone who seems to be a fairly traditinal but pragmatic Conservative, how do you view Labour in practice? It seems to me as a centrist liberal that they are doing a fairly good impression of a moderate conservative (small c) government, continuing many of the stated policies of the previous government but actually starting to execute some of them.

From my POV they are even worse than I'd feared, but what about you?

I’m normally a Labour voter but voted Lib Dem as in Eastbourne that’s the way to remove the Tories . I’ve also voted Lib Dem in Surbiton . Labour have been awful and I don’t like this chasing of Reform votes and they refuse to acknowledge the elephant in the room . Without Brexit the black hole wouldn’t exist and they need to stop thinking it’s still 2016 . The public especially with what’s going on in the USA want closer links with the EU especially on trade .

Thank you, interesting. I can't imagine most Labour voters are very happy with what they're seeing. I think Labour would haemorrhage votes to a left wing party, if one existed with a charismatic leader. A Reform of the left.

interesting that the current Labour leader, a former public prosecutor, says he "likes and respects" a convicted felon who has no respect for the truth, the law or international conventions - role models today, eh?

No sane person who has empathy and a shred of humanity can like or respect Trump . I wish Starmer would just STFU with his fawning .

Thank you, interesting. I can't imagine most Labour voters are very happy with what they're seeing. I think Labour would haemorrhage votes to a left wing party, if one existed with a charismatic leader. A Reform of the left.

interesting that the current Labour leader, a former public prosecutor, says he "likes and respects" a convicted felon who has no respect for the truth, the law or international conventions - role models today, eh?

No sane person who has empathy and a shred of humanity can like or respect Trump . I wish Starmer would just STFU with his fawning .

In Starmer's defence he can't really say out loud that the President of the United States is a c***. Back benchers and Conservative politicians in opposition should not be constrained by such etiquette.

Ed Davey isn't constrained in his criticism.
Elon Musk recognised this and called him a "snivelling cretin"!

Indeed? I'm surprised Musk was so forthright, although I have to say I would have gone a lot fur...oh, sorry, is the 'he' in question Ed Davey?

How can it be that there's such an empty chair in British Politics? The LDs haven't turned up for a very long time now.

Thankfully the lib dems have rarely been in government and long may it continue

I would have voted 'coalition' ahead of Tory if I'd had the chance in 2015.

I voted tory in 2010...would have voted labour to keep the lib dems out

FFS Pagan, give it a rest for god sake. Why are you blaming the lib Dems for your own inadequacies? Did a LibDem candidate hurt you in the past? Steal your bike or sandals?
Take your heart off your sleeve and put it inside where it belongs.

These from the president of the Kyiv school of economics:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1903794404520812694

Most people I know—Ukrainians, Americans, and my social media crowd—dislike or even hate Trump. They’re afraid he’ll cut a deal with Putin and sell out Ukraine.

I disagree. Trump could offer Ukraine a real chance to end the war.

The two are hardly mutually exclusive.

To conclude, there is of course an alternative - continue to put pressure on Russia and hope it will collapse. I think this is what Reagan did. But I don’t see any appetite for that between the US and Europe, although Europe is willing to go some on that direction.

But that might not be enough. If Russia collapses, it is due to its internal processes and political forces, but this is a risky strategy. And I don’t want to bet Ukraine’s future on that.

Russia's experience in Afghanistan puts a lie to that. It is perfectly possible for a 'superpower' (and Russia is hardly one of those any more) to be beaten in countries far poorer than Ukraine. Also witness the American experience in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Iraq.

Sadly, the sort of shite being spoken in the quotes above just gives Putin and Russia hope that their political shenanigans are working, where their military is failing.

Securing the best outcome for Ukraine doesn't seem to matter in this analysis. They are simply a proxy to inflict damage on Russia.

Russia invaded Ukraine. Peace through the defeat of Russia seems the best, and most ethical, result

Destruction of Russia's hydrocarbons industry can be achieved for the loss of very few Russians. The means exist within Ukraine, but could certainly be expedited by the use of German (and indeed, American) cruise missiles.

Without its hydrocarbons, Russia has no means to fund its war. Or indeed, feed its people.

They way to beat Russia:

1. destroy its oil and gas refining and storage facilities

2. wait for the economy to collapse - weeks, not months

3. offer the Russians financial assistance - as soon as the last of the Russians return to pre-2014 borders. And all the POWs are returned. And the stolen children too.

These from the president of the Kyiv school of economics:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1903794404520812694

Most people I know—Ukrainians, Americans, and my social media crowd—dislike or even hate Trump. They’re afraid he’ll cut a deal with Putin and sell out Ukraine.

I disagree. Trump could offer Ukraine a real chance to end the war.

The two are hardly mutually exclusive.

To conclude, there is of course an alternative - continue to put pressure on Russia and hope it will collapse. I think this is what Reagan did. But I don’t see any appetite for that between the US and Europe, although Europe is willing to go some on that direction.

But that might not be enough. If Russia collapses, it is due to its internal processes and political forces, but this is a risky strategy. And I don’t want to bet Ukraine’s future on that.

Worth quoting the middle passage you have missed out:

Everyone is afraid that Trump will sell Ukraine out, but I don’t think it will happen.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine will like the conditions of peace, but Ukraine will be able to move on and develop 9/

Ukraine is in a much better condition than Finland after the Soviets imposed reparations on it, political conditions, and took its territory. And Finland is a winner in that war because people in Finland today leave much better than in Russia 10/

So, this assumption that Trump will be able to secure conditions for Ukraine that will allow it to develop and stay independent is why I believe Trump is a better deal than Biden 11/

If this assumption is wrong, then, of course course, my analysis is wrong.

But what is true that there is no alternative to Trump now. There is no world in which Trump can be convinced, by words, to act differently.

I agree with that last point.

But his assumption is a nonsense. Trump doesn't care about Ukraine and he admires Putin as he admires Russia. All of his actions have either been designed to further Putin's agenda or so wilfully stupid even British Gas would fire him for incompetence.

The whole analysis is therefore, on his own admission, wrong. It's wishful thinking and smoke and mirrors. No wonder he's an economist.

Just delusional stuff if he thinks it unlikely Trump would sell out Ukraine.

And there's a clear alternative to Trump: Europe getting its act together.

Did you read his first five points?

1. The alternative - Biden’s strategy - has been more damaging for Ukraine

It focused on escalation management and failed. No path to victory, no path to peace. No talks with Putin. No timely sufficient weapons for a real counteroffensive

2.U.S. willingness to support Ukraine has been steadily declining

Even in 2024, under Biden, it was nearly impossible to pass the supplemental aid package. The drop in support is real—regardless of how unpopular that fact may be

3. The Ukraine mobilization problem is real

The casualty rates while significantly lower than in Russia are substantive. Ukraine is unwilling to sacrifice its people the way Russia can. It is exactly why it is different from Russia - Ukraine values life

4. The Ukraine immigration problem is real

Families split apart, in Ukraine and abroad. Some high human capital left. It is still possible for people to return, but another two-three years of war will force Ukrainian refugees integrate in Europe and elsewhere for good

5. The chances of post war economic recovery

As the war takes a bigger tall, it becomes more difficult to maintain the economy. The critical economic capabilities become eroded, making it more difficult and lengthier for Ukraine economy to rebuild after war

If you're going to keep shilling for Putin/Trump at least change your bloody avatar!

Would it be good if Ukraine could live peacefully and start to recover? Of course.

Would it have been better if Russia had never invaded? Of course.

Is the price of a part of a country subject to Russian domination, unable or not allowed to defend itself from its poisonous neighbour and without protection from further rapine too high a price to pay? Of course.

This war goes on until Russia is defeated or agrees to stop. Defeat means that their conventional forces are repelled, just as Hussein's were when he was thrown out of Kuwait. Only then will Ukraine be safe. Only then can we hope to recover their stolen children, their destroyed cities, their damaged power plants, their future.

It is our responsibility to do all we reasonably can to bring about that Russian defeat. For the sake of Ukraine, for the sake of peace in Europe and for the sake of our own security.

These from the president of the Kyiv school of economics:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1903794404520812694

Most people I know—Ukrainians, Americans, and my social media crowd—dislike or even hate Trump. They’re afraid he’ll cut a deal with Putin and sell out Ukraine.

I disagree. Trump could offer Ukraine a real chance to end the war.

The two are hardly mutually exclusive.

To conclude, there is of course an alternative - continue to put pressure on Russia and hope it will collapse. I think this is what Reagan did. But I don’t see any appetite for that between the US and Europe, although Europe is willing to go some on that direction.

But that might not be enough. If Russia collapses, it is due to its internal processes and political forces, but this is a risky strategy. And I don’t want to bet Ukraine’s future on that.

Worth quoting the middle passage you have missed out:

Everyone is afraid that Trump will sell Ukraine out, but I don’t think it will happen.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine will like the conditions of peace, but Ukraine will be able to move on and develop 9/

Ukraine is in a much better condition than Finland after the Soviets imposed reparations on it, political conditions, and took its territory. And Finland is a winner in that war because people in Finland today leave much better than in Russia 10/

So, this assumption that Trump will be able to secure conditions for Ukraine that will allow it to develop and stay independent is why I believe Trump is a better deal than Biden 11/

If this assumption is wrong, then, of course course, my analysis is wrong.

But what is true that there is no alternative to Trump now. There is no world in which Trump can be convinced, by words, to act differently.

I agree with that last point.

But his assumption is a nonsense. Trump doesn't care about Ukraine and he admires Putin as he admires Russia. All of his actions have either been designed to further Putin's agenda or so wilfully stupid even British Gas would fire him for incompetence.

The whole analysis is therefore, on his own admission, wrong. It's wishful thinking and smoke and mirrors. No wonder he's an economist.

Really shocking story in the ST today about Franchise colleges and the hundreds of millions that have been stolen for non existent students from Romania in the main signing on to get student loans and, of course, grants which are then shared between the colleges, the lead Universities and the providers of the students.

The scale of it is almost beyond belief. Those involved in both the franchise colleges and indeed in the Universities have surely acted illegally and dishonestly. Hundreds of them really need to go to jail and the franchise colleges involved need to be closed. What this does to a sector already struggling, god alone knows.

I don't have an electronic account but for those that do: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/revealed-colleges-student-loans-fraud-pd7wlgb3v

Full piece:
https://archive.is/20250323103854/https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/revealed-colleges-student-loans-fraud-pd7wlgb3v

This paragraph almost sums it up:

"Leaked government figures show that the number of Romanian nationals living in the UK applying for a student loan increased from 5,000 in 2015-16 to 84,000 in 2023-24, suggesting 15 per cent of the Romanian population in Britain was paid a student loan last year."

We are being taken for fools and a corrupt public sector is just looking the other way.

BTW, that 15% suggests that there are currently 560k Romanians living in the UK. I mean, how?

We can't afford scams like this anymore.