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Rachel Reeves is preparing to give more than a million low-paid workers a pay rise in the budget, despite warnings from businesses that she risks “pricing jobs out of existence”.

The Times has been told that the chancellor is likely to confirm a rise in the national living wage of about 4 per cent, from £12.21 to at least £12.70, in an effort to deliver on her pledge to improve living standards.

The government will also commit itself to extending the living wage to people between the ages of 18 and 21 as part of a commitment to “raise the floor” on wages.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/pay-rise-autumn-budget-rachel-reeves-wddm8cnrd

Funny how those who drivel on endlessly about copying Denmark never mention that it doesn't have a minimum wage.

The minimum wage should be scrapped, not raised, as it distorts the labour market by forcing business to pay people more than they're worth, raising unemployment, reducing competitiveness and the incentive to increase productivity amongst those who need it most, increasing compliance costs and inflation. In fact it's hard to think of a more damaging policy (though the looking through the current government's actions gives a pretty long list of them).

But understanding the harm done needs politicians and journalists to think things through for thirty seconds, so we're stuck with it unfortunately.

The counter to that is we've had massive immigration and yet we haven't see massive unemployment - indeed, the minimum wage serves as a disincentive for firms to rely on cheap labour. As long as Labour keep cutting migration (and targets dodgy outfits swerving the rule) then I can't see that changing to a large degree.

In terms of the benefits bill, in theory you need wages at the lower end to rise pretty quickly to provide an incentive for people to work (in reality I don't think you can see this effect too much because the marginal utlity of cash for someone on UC means they can tolerate fairly low wages and still want to work - conditions are much more important IMO).

Indeed, if we take @Fishing's argument to its logical conclusion, slavery should never have been abolished.

It seems there is a pool of people unable to find work for whatever reason (and there may be several) who chase jobs, apply and get nowhere. That's not people who are making no effort (a different group) but those who cannot even get their foot in the door of employment whether it's through lack of qualifications, lack of experience or a lack of something else.

That latter group is large and by far the biggest issue. Often, they just aren't the kind of person who is particularly employable unless you have a highly tolerant and benevolent employer.

It's actually quite rare for the financial incentive to be a problem - even if their EMTR is something like 70% people still tend to want to work because 1) they don't run their lives with spreadsheets like PBers 2) the value of additional income is far higher than for the typical PBer, because it's often the difference between food on the table or not 3) people do recognise that living on benefits forever is not a source of happiness, particularly given the sanctions and other tribulations that DWP have in place.

Indeed. I was involved in the recruitment for a lower grade post handling records. The shortlisting process (before AI) weeded out the obvious and we got down to the last six. Of that six, two stood out on paper and both interviewed very well. We had a really tough job splitting them even on evaluation scoring but by the time we'd decided, both had found better paid work elsewhere.

The other four interviewees were much weaker - it wasn't their academic qualifications which were the problem or even the lack of experience but we were left with the thought they were socially inept, barely able to hold a conversation and interact with others.

Some people are like that - not everyone is gregarious, there are those who find basic social situations very difficult especially with people they don't know. In a workplace, you need to be able to communicate with and basically interact with not just your immediate colleagues but others and whether it's down to technological or societal changes, it's much easier to be alone and lonely than it ever was.

There's a lot in this about self-promotion and self-confidence and I wonder if education is part of the problem (and the solution). It's easy to be in the background in a class of 30 or 40 - less easy when it's 15 or 20. A generation or two of children in overcrowded, underfunded schools come out the other side and we wonder why they find "the real world" so difficult.

The problem is that conventional interviews tend to favour confident extaverts (bullshitters in common parlance), while in many jobs introverts are better at the job, being much more likely to prepare properly rather than just wing it.

We adjusted our medical student interviews for this reason, with a mix of stations including comprehension and problem solving.

Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson

No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.

So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage

How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?

Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.

I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now

Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.

The median voter is now voting Reform

To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.

Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.

Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.

Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson

No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.

So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage

How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?

Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.

I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now

Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.

The median voter is now voting Reform

The modal voter, yes.

The median voter is someone between the very left of the Conservatives and the right of the Lib Dems. Like always.

(Doesn't mean that position is popular or correct, but it is where the median nearly always is.)

It was but now if on economic terms you put the Tories right of Reform then the median voter probably is voting Reform, certainly in England with Labour just behind.

In cultural terms if you put Reform to the right of the Tories, then the median voter is perhaps voting Tory but with Reform just behind

Median implied some kind of scale. I think modal would be better.

What does the mean voter mean?

Ones that don't buy their round.

Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson

No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.

So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage

How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?

Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.

I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now

Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.

The median voter is now voting Reform

The modal voter, yes.

The median voter is someone between the very left of the Conservatives and the right of the Lib Dems. Like always.

(Doesn't mean that position is popular or correct, but it is where the median nearly always is.)

OK, as nothing too world-shaking is happening today, here is a list of my ten biggest recent wrong political predictions, in no particular order:

1. Remain would edge the referendum
2. the current government would get a 6 month-1 year honeymoon in the polls
3. we'd have got rid of Northern Ireland by now
4. Kamala 24 by the narrowest of margins
5. Boris would last a full term
6. the Ukraine war would be over by now
7. UK GE 2024 vote shares. I got the margin between Lab and Con almost exactly right, but grossly overestimated the proportion of the vote the top two would get and underestimated Reform's share. I got the GE 2019 shares pretty accurate though.
8. Truss would be more competent than she was
9. Cameron would win an absolute majority in 2010 (I remember meeting Kwasi Kwarteng just before the election and telling him that. He disagreed with me and turned out to be right)
10. Labour would be the largest party in a hung Parliament in 2015

I find auditing oneself in this way a good means of curbing the arrogance that can build up if you only remember your triumphs. I don't think there's a common thread there, and I've made plenty of accurate predictions to offset against them, but that's why, though I post on this site from time to time, I don't engage in the activity from which it gets its name ...