Best Of

Evening, P.B.

My relative-in-law quite upset today. A large family tour of impeccably liberal, anti-Netanyahu relatives of my wife went on a large family tour to north-east London for retrace the roots and steps of their Jewish ancestors.
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All was going well, and a lovely family day out in the autumn sun, until a passer-by, possibly from Somalia or somewhere in the same region, overhead that the group was Jewish. He started swearing and threatening the whole group, and screaming at them to stop bombing the Palestinians, in between spitting on them. Two of the group were very liberal healthcare workers who calmed him down, from both a professional and political point of view, before he got violent.

Family day partially ruined. The hatred out there is still very raw and real, particularly after two years of the conflict.

The irony is that Gaza, though tragic, is an irrelevant distraction to the conflict that really matters to the free world, which is in Ukraine. But many people are much more passionate about Gaza. Putin can only be delighted by that. However the war ends, I think future generations will judge us harshly for not helping the brave Ukrainians a lot more.

Without question, the outcome of the Ukraine war is vastly more important to any European than the outcome of the war in Gaza.

Tony Blair's video trying to persuade us to support ID cards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alnNJ3vR9qY

Real-time monitoring of the entire population, both physical and online, combined with AI, facial recognition, cloud-based computing, will enable the Government to know every detail and action of your life and retrieve it at a moment's notice

When people ask me why I have turned so vehemently against this Government, it's because they have grown so far from their left-wing roots that all they have left is warmed-over right-wing shit like this. This is just awful.

The Labour Party has never been about liberty in the general sense. The idea of the Labour Party is that they will come up with the ideal solutions (in the centre) and the solutions will enacted on the country.

There is even a level of incomprehension there - during the negotiations over the Coalition government, the Labour Party negotiators (such as Ed Balls) assumed that the Lib Dems would drop their opposition to the ID card databases, because it was a well meaning policy.

Quite. Anyone who inherently associates liberty with the left and authoritarianism with the right is likely brainwashed or entirely ignorant of politics. But it's a misrepresentation so widespread that it allows the left to get away with terrible liberties (and indeed the retraction thereof).

It would be amusing to hear ID cards unironically described as 'right wing shit', were it not for the fact that a lot of people genuinely believe this...

Tories are fiddling around the edges - same as Labour. And performative "we'll cut the civil service" - because *everyone* knows there's an army of penpushers - without being about to specify whom.

An idea: the Big Picture. Tories say "our national debt is grotesque. It's built over decades, including under our watch. A system which we now need to change. So we're going to make significant cuts"

A starter for 10. Our road network is shagged, the bits we do cost £stupid. Why don't the Tories propose private toll motorways? Easy planning clearance for companies who want to build tolled bypasses of the worst bits. We get new stuff without paying for it, it's pay and play for users.

UK companies only, though.
Way too much of our infrastructure is overseas owned, and it's a part of what's effed our balance of payments.

But before any of that, planning reform, so that it doesn't cost £stupid.
Like every other bit of infrastructure we now build.

In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?

The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.

How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..

The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,

London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.

Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland

Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?

Spurious logic at best.

Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).

I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.

Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.

Labour are of course whacking
up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them.
East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences

Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.

Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction

Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..

Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners

Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.

"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."

Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.

As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South

As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.

We downsized twice.
4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms
to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001
to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011
releasing equity for the kids both times.
No regrets at all.

HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.

No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.

Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South

"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"

Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.

And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.

It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them

Not true at all (even, and especially, in the case of goodies received before death). You will get a very nasty shock if you become an executor and apply that doctrine.

Also because children don't automatically get the goods.

Yes true and even goodies applied before death are liable for inheritance tax if the parents don’t last seven years.

Inheritance tax is paid by the children NOT the parents ultimately once they are both dead.

Once the parents are both dead in 90% of cases the estate goes to any children

Gifting your home to your children doesn’t work either. HMRC class it as a gift with reservation, and the local authority will class it as deliberate deprivation of assets so it won’t even be protected from care costs.

My father has cunningly gotten around this problem by not having any assets, good man.