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Boris wasn't good. JRM on C4 news sounded defiant but strangely distant from reality this evening. Interviewer going through the motions but no-one thought it meant anything. As if for both of them their day in the sun is over.

This feels sad, as Boris has real genius, and it is incredible that he could not exercise a minimal moral discipline in order to keep the job he had craved. JRM seemed to have got on the wrong bus and stayed on after everyone else knew it was going to the wrong destination.

BTW, Owenpatersongate meant and means far more than Partygate in the long run. Politically the second is absurd. The first is sinister.

Who counts now right at the top now and soon? No-one would have guessed this at the end of 2019. Sunak, Starmer, Forbes, Hunt, Badenoch, Streeting. It could be much worse.

On topic, my impression is that he's screwed, and looking at a something like a six week suspension (and, inevitably, recall petition).

Not massively confident on that prediction, I must say, but maybe 60%.

Enough Tories on the panel were extremely skeptical, and his performance was poor. Plus the severity for a Commons nerd is high and I can't see this as tap on the wrist territory.

I think people grossly underestimate the likely penalty if they find against him. He's gone all in here and actually made it really hard to classify as minor. I just don't see the "guilty and five days suspension" thing that some journos are touting as credible. I actually find not guilty more likely than guilty but trivial.

On the Commons vote on accepting the report, again I think people overestimate support for Johnson. Post-Paterson, I think plenty enough Tories beyond the usual Never Johnson mob will just say "my hands are tied - let him stand in a by-election if he wants".

Sir Bernard Jenkin will not.

I suspect Costa and Walker won't either.

The striking thing is how much the Tory MPs managed to make Johnson squirm today.

They will rap him on the knuckles but they won't vote to suspend him for fear of deselection by their local Conservative Associations

If Johnson is not properly censured there will be a national outrage. I am not sure you understand this.

There will be a national outrage from people not voting Conservative or RefUK but Tory MPs don't care about them as they have near zero chance of voting Conservative at the next general election anyway and they don't form the membership of their local Conservative Association who will decide whether or not to reselect them

There will be national rage from this conservative supporter, and your descent into attempts of blackmail just affirms you are still very much in Johnson's camp

You voted Blair in 1997 and 2001 and have wavered away from the Conservatives pre Rishi anyway. The Conservatives would lose more votes to RefUK enabling a recall of Boris than they would lose to LAB or the LDs not doing so. At most a few days to a week suspension maximum

Did you not find Johnson's circus act this afternoon an utter disgrace?

He just cannot move on from his devotion to Johnson despite suggesting he supports Sunak

There would be civil war in the Conservative Party, deselections of Sunak loyalist MPs and defections of Conservative voters to RedUK if Boris is suspended for 10 days or more leading to a recall. As I said Tory MPs on the cttee will vote for a suspension for Boris of a week max

Gosh. What a load of old bollox! At times your finger is a long way from the pulse

Worrying news about whats happening to pilots now.

I’m being notified by passengers on a Southwest flight departing Las Vegas that the captain became incapacitated soon after takeoff this morning. He was removed from the flight deck and replaced by a non Southwest pilot who was commuting on that flight. This is now the fifth pilot incapacitation that I’m aware of in the past two weeks. I will post more details as they become available.

@SouthwestAir

@USFreedomFlyers

@DocPeteChambers

@LTCTheresaLong

@P_McCulloughMD

5:55 PM · Mar 22, 2023

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Think you may be on the wrong site. This isn't pilotical betting.

Yes, it is political botting