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Re: Spot the outlier – politicalbetting.com
Presumably no, which is the issue of computer-says-no idiots, following the Process State.There is no mention of whether it was SORNed.“My car which has always been parked on my drive was of no use to me and I did not insure it on renewal as I will never drive again and have surrendered my driving licence.""Bedbound pensioner, 84, convicted of not insuring car she'll never use againPaywalled. Can't see a rather critical issue. Is it on the road, or on her drive?
An 84-year-old woman who is bedbound and reliant on daily care has been convicted of a driving offence after failing to insure a car"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/pensioner-convicted-car-insurance-bedbound-single-justice-procedure-dvla-b1261313.html
If the former, then the alternative is, I suppose, being accused of dumping - which may not be preferable these days?
Also, did she respond to the notice?
The Process is to SORN, you have not followed Process, so you must be prosecuted.
The logical response to that response would instead be "OK, if the car is on drive and you are not driving it again and have surrendered your licence, you need to SORN it, we will assist you with that". Rather than "we will send you to court for not following Process".
Re: Spot the outlier – politicalbetting.com
Yes, remember 2015GE and how Martin "Kaboom" Boon reacted to this, by self-censoring his polls.
Being an outlier is uncomfortable, but it doesn't mean you're wrong. It is high-risk though: you are feted as a genius if you're right, and pilloried if you're wrong.
Being an outlier is uncomfortable, but it doesn't mean you're wrong. It is high-risk though: you are feted as a genius if you're right, and pilloried if you're wrong.
Re: Spot the outlier – politicalbetting.com
To be fair, at least May announced policies. Instead of Starmer's ending of trial by jury in most cases, throwing away British sovereign territory and paying for the privilege, and hiking taxes to pump directly into benefits. Not to mention the probable (we'll see) approval for the Chinese 'embassy'.Yes, she got found it. I lost money because I thought no-one would ever touch Jeremy Corbyn. Her style of privately deciding what to do and then refusing to engage, communicate or listen really pissed people off.2017 was a bonkers time.Fair enough. I recall Martin Boon making a fool of himself over it, though.Yes, remember 2015GE and how Martin "Kaboom" Boon reacted to this, by self-censoring his polls.It was Damian from Survation who self censored his own poll.
Being an outlier is uncomfortable, but it doesn't mean you're wrong. It is high-risk though: you are feted as a genius if you're right, and pilloried if you're wrong.
Perhaps he was simply too confident of the result and the outcome (incorrectly) on his Twitter feed.
I was told the week Mrs May announced the election the Tory private polling had the Tories winning a majority of 294 and potentially over 300 if Scotland played ball.
I have no doubt that poll was kosher (I think the best public poll had the Tories winning a majority of around 200).
The irony is that the polling led Mrs May to propose the dementia tax thinking a hefty majority was in the bag.
OGH and I made a hefty profit selling the Tories at 395ish seats.
Thankfully, I traded out my position to near neutral on the night itself.
Re: Spot the outlier – politicalbetting.com
The Rubik's cube...my son is getting interested in it. Can anyone disabuse me of the notion that it is a performative attempt at looking clever when all anyone really does to solve it is to learn a dull and repetitive algorithm?Probably better for brain and soul than electronic games so encourage him. Give him a peace prize or something.
Foxy
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Re: Spot the outlier – politicalbetting.com
Given how shit a sporting weekend it has been so far for me, I fully expected Max Verstappen to complete the Devil's trifecta this afternoon by winning the F1 title.As a Wolves supporter, it's been a great weekend, because we don't lose until Monday.
Re: Ed Miliband’s chances of succeeding Starmer are sizzling like a bacon sarnie – politicalbetting.com
WrongIf you are genuinely pro growth you will argue for immigration. People who don't like immigration will accept the trade off of less growth, which is essentially Starmer's position. Coincidentally, and I think it is coincidental, Polanski's suggestion of immigration for menial jobs was the unspoken policy of previous governments because it's one of the few levers they can pull to improve the economy.The unrestricted immigration and extreme nimbyism puts Polanski in competition with the LibDems though.I don't think so. Polanski isn't going for the Reform vote.Polanski made a major error there. Migrants come here to do the jobs we don’t want to do.Polanski made a big mistake with that comment as it not only highlighted migrants for jobs that Brits don't want to do but also denigrated an entire profession to the business of 'wiping bums'.Right, they've bought into a certain idea of the countryside, that they don't want disrupted. And they're insecure because they aren't rooted in their community. And they might have left London because "it's changed so much". They might not actually be that well off either - they have accumulated wealth through the happy accident of buying a terraced house in London at the right time. So they're economically insecure too. It makes sense. But among the left liberal denizens of my bit of London - the absolutely most tofu eating of the Remainer wokerati, seriously - this is not an argument I have ever heard.They tended to be people who’d cashed in a house in London for a lovely stone house with land.Maybe Wiltshire attracts that sort of person. It's not an argument I have ever heard anybody make round here.I’ve met people like that. In Wiltshire, there were some incomers to Malmesbury who fought against development on a mishmash of Green/Nimby excuses. After some wine, they would comment that if a factory got built locally, then wages would go up - which would hit them.Show me you don't know any Remainers, without saying you don't know any Remainers.The sort of people who hated Brexit because they lost their minimum wage cleaners and babysitters.It shows his privilege and comfortable middle-class position, though.One has to think like a Labourite.Labour would be better served by worrying about the Greens and piss diamonds than Reform.
The objective here is to consolidate the left-wing vote in an environment where Labour is bleeding heavily to the Greens and Lib Dems, and in the next election its base alone might put it in contention in a 4-way fight. It isn't to win over "floating voters" to Reform/Tories, and non-Labour voters rooting for Wes Streeting are like non-Tory voters rooting for Rory Stewart.
So, I'd say Ed Miliband has a real chance.
Polanski was not good on QT. His ‘let’s get migrants over to do the jobs we don’t want to do’ is not the winning line he thought it was. As Kelly Osborne found out in the USA.
Which is where most Greens now come from.
Strangely, the locals (pushed into the housing estate over the hill) all voted…
I found it interesting that they’d acquired the attitude of the Squirearchy with it - what they want is economic & social stasis. At least locally, for them.
Ironically at the time of Brexit our cleaner was not from the EU. Whereas now our cleaner is from the EU. And our child minder was from the PB Tory saintly caste of "white British", although we don't employ her any more as our kids are too old. We still see her and her family from time to time, though. We pay our cleaner £17/hour. Nobody I know saw EU membership as a source of cheap domestic labour, we certainly didn't.
I know far more about social care than I would like due to family situation and this kind of labelling is appalling frankly.
But we all make mistakes and it was live TV and he is a newbie. The best bet for him is to explain himself more and apologise.
Or, knowing how he operates, do a tic tock of him being a carer for a day on the front line etc.
Reminiscent of Kelly Osborne in the US on The Voice. But at least she was challenged for her supremacy.
Being pro-immigration doesn't have a plurality on PB but has significant support and puts clear green water between the Greens and the overcrowded anti-immigrant vote of Mahmood/Jenrick/Farage.
I suppose Polanski isn't even pretending he wants economic growth though.
There are multiple ways to achieve growth without importing labour.
Investing in productivity is one way. Another is moving the economy towards higher paid, higher productivity industries that already exist.
Cheap importer labour is the cheap boiled sweets of economics - feels good at first. Terrible as a long term diet.
Re: Spot the outlier – politicalbetting.com
Those pointing to FON as the truthful heretics ought to be careful what they wish for... The same company picks up a very high Green share.
Pretty sure that's also due to the aggressiveness of FON's enthusiasm filter. Nigel and Zak have fans, Keir notoriously doesn't.
I'm which case, FON probably gets low turnout elections righter than high turnout ones
Pretty sure that's also due to the aggressiveness of FON's enthusiasm filter. Nigel and Zak have fans, Keir notoriously doesn't.
I'm which case, FON probably gets low turnout elections righter than high turnout ones
Re: Ed Miliband’s chances of succeeding Starmer are sizzling like a bacon sarnie – politicalbetting.com
It looks nothing like Sadiq Khan. No wonder I didn't get it.This is the greatest visual pun you will ever see and I can understand why people think I came up with it.The Wreath Of Khan
Re: Ed Miliband’s chances of succeeding Starmer are sizzling like a bacon sarnie – politicalbetting.com
Agreed. Being forced to download apps just to buy something is a complete no-no for me as a basic security issue. (Quite apart from the possibility of the QR code or the website in question being fake, like those put on stickers over car-parking site notice QR codes.)It makes my life considerably harder. Particularly if I don't have my phone. Or I do have my phone but it has no battery.Anyone else fed up with "scanning a QR-code" and "downloading our app" ?No, it makes my life so much easier.
I'm fed up being obligated to interface with the world around me though my phone.
Honestly, the tech of 2007 was entirely fine.
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Re: Ed Miliband’s chances of succeeding Starmer are sizzling like a bacon sarnie – politicalbetting.com
Anyone else fed up with "scanning a QR-code" and "downloading our app" ?Like this?
I'm fed up being obligated to interface with the world around me though my phone.

Battlebus
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