Best Of

Keith Kellogg, the most pro-Ukraine member of the Trump administration, is leaving his post in January. That's not a great sign and reflects the extent to which he's been sidelined in favour of pro-Russian Witkoff.

The US has stopped funding Ukraine.
It's already made clear that European NATO is likely on its own in the face of a Russian attack.
The Trump administration is now massively unpopular with its own electorate.

Why now should we be paying quite so much attention to what they want in Ukraine ?

The same Russia that cannot beat Ukraine? I don’t want to seem caomplacent but I’m fairly sure NATO-USA would be ok vs the paper tiger.

What do you think would happen if Russia launched 4 dozen cruise missiles at Britain?

The French would surrender.

On Ukraine, I presume order of events is this.

Trump sends his demand to the UK and other members of NATO, as well as the EU. He tells them that unless they back it, the US will leave NATO (which Trump has always wanted to do).

The ball is then in Europe's court.

Europe can afford to tell the US to fuck off. They can also point out to the adminisrtation that it is US arms manufacturers who would pay the highest price for the disentegration of NATO.

I don't know what Europe will do. Hungary supports Russia, of course.

Poland and the Baltics are the most hawkish.

The rest of Europe ... well, we'll see. Europe has the ability to ensure Russia's defeat. But so long have they been prepared to hide behind the US's coattails, that they do not seem willing to confront the new reality.

They also know that Trump could well impose another round of tariffs on Europe if they fail to fall into lin.

I hope that the leaders of Europe - Mertz, Macron, Starmer and Meloni - have the balls to stand up and do what is not just right, but what is long term the one with the most positive outcome. The problem is that they want to be reelected. And their economies are already creaking.

We need someone in Europe with balls and vision and strength. Will that person arise, or will Europe fold?

One potential problem is that Europe is reliant on the US for a lot of critical defense technology. For example, the storm shadow/scalp-eg missiles contain US components, so we required US permission for Ukraine to use them to strike targets inside Russia. If there's an acrimonious parting of the ways with the US then Europe is seriously fucked in the short term. Now, maybe Trump would be happy to keep selling stuff to Europe, but this means that Europe finds itself in a weak strategic position with lots of bad choices.

We need to keep Trump onside as much as possible, for as long as possible, and then use that time to prepare to be able to survive a rupture. But not at the cost of abandoning Ukraine.

It's a truly awful position to be in. Things are going to get worse before they get better.

We shouldn't be targeting targets inside Russia anyway, arms should be provided to Zelensky to maintain current lines

If you force Ukraine to fight with one arm tied behind its back then they will lose. If you don't want Ukraine to lose then you have to help them hit Russia where it hurts, and where it's most effective.

On Ukraine, I presume order of events is this.

Trump sends his demand to the UK and other members of NATO, as well as the EU. He tells them that unless they back it, the US will leave NATO (which Trump has always wanted to do).

The ball is then in Europe's court.

Europe can afford to tell the US to fuck off. They can also point out to the adminisrtation that it is US arms manufacturers who would pay the highest price for the disentegration of NATO.

I don't know what Europe will do. Hungary supports Russia, of course.

Poland and the Baltics are the most hawkish.

The rest of Europe ... well, we'll see. Europe has the ability to ensure Russia's defeat. But so long have they been prepared to hide behind the US's coattails, that they do not seem willing to confront the new reality.

They also know that Trump could well impose another round of tariffs on Europe if they fail to fall into lin.

I hope that the leaders of Europe - Mertz, Macron, Starmer and Meloni - have the balls to stand up and do what is not just right, but what is long term the one with the most positive outcome. The problem is that they want to be reelected. And their economies are already creaking.

We need someone in Europe with balls and vision and strength. Will that person arise, or will Europe fold?

On Ukraine, I presume order of events is this.

Trump sends his demand to the UK and other members of NATO, as well as the EU. He tells them that unless they back it, the US will leave NATO (which Trump has always wanted to do).

The ball is then in Europe's court.

Europe can afford to tell the US to fuck off. They can also point out to the adminisrtation that it is US arms manufacturers who would pay the highest price for the disentegration of NATO.

I don't know what Europe will do. Hungary supports Russia, of course.

Poland and the Baltics are the most hawkish.

The rest of Europe ... well, we'll see. Europe has the ability to ensure Russia's defeat. But so long have they been prepared to hide behind the US's coattails, that they do not seem willing to confront the new reality.

They also know that Trump could well impose another round of tariffs on Europe if they fail to fall into lin.

I hope that the leaders of Europe - Mertz, Macron, Starmer and Meloni - have the balls to stand up and do what is not just right, but what is long term the one with the most positive outcome. The problem is that they want to be reelected. And their economies are already creaking.

We need someone in Europe with balls and vision and strength. Will that person arise, or will Europe fold?

Europe and Canada would agree to a ceasefire on current lines as would Zelensky but not Trump's initial proposals

Yes:

Europe and Zelenskyy would take:

- current lines
- no restrictions on armed forces
- ability to enter into alliances

Russia wants

- more Ukrainan territory
- Ukraine to be a puppet state

I hope Ukraine and Europe hold their nerves.

Actually, I hope Europe (and the UK) stops being reactive. It's time to announce something outrageous as the price for peace (Putin's resignation and prosecution for war crimes + all Ukrainian lands). And then it's time to take Russian assets that are frozen and use them to back up Ukraine to the hilt.

Just like the UK government and the economy you have to break the loop where all you are doing is reacting to the other party's moves and switch it round. So Ukraine needs to start affecting Russian energy exports and power generation, and Russia needs to be the one who is reacting.

Sadly, the West's politicians are either venal or weak.

Europe and Ukraine must hold their nerve.

Cede on this and it’s a total capitulation.

Cutting power bills for datacenters and loading increased prices on consumers is monumentally stupid.

About twenty years ago, South Africa said "what do we have loads of?" and thought "coal"!

They decided they would promise cheap power to people who build aluminium smelters and the like, so that they could bring industry to South Africa.

It worked, and it didn't work.

They brought some industry to South Africa, but at the expense of rolling blackouts for the population because these facilities got contracts that gave them first dibs at power.

It totally fucked up the South African economy.

At least, though, they got a few jobs out of it.

How many people do you think work in an AI datacenter? You build one where power is cheap and cooling easy, and you sign up customers from all over the world. Norway and Iceland are the obvious places. Or somewhere both sunny and with lots of gas for backup (like Texas, Arizona or Nevada).

There is literally no competitive advantage to us. There are no jobs. And it would fuck over British consumers.

It is hard to think of a stupider economic policy. Except possibly $2,000 'tariff checks' when you're running a 6% budget deficit.

On Ukraine, I presume order of events is this.

Trump sends his demand to the UK and other members of NATO, as well as the EU. He tells them that unless they back it, the US will leave NATO (which Trump has always wanted to do).

The ball is then in Europe's court.

Europe can afford to tell the US to fuck off. They can also point out to the adminisrtation that it is US arms manufacturers who would pay the highest price for the disentegration of NATO.

I don't know what Europe will do. Hungary supports Russia, of course.

Poland and the Baltics are the most hawkish.

The rest of Europe ... well, we'll see. Europe has the ability to ensure Russia's defeat. But so long have they been prepared to hide behind the US's coattails, that they do not seem willing to confront the new reality.

They also know that Trump could well impose another round of tariffs on Europe if they fail to fall into lin.

I hope that the leaders of Europe - Mertz, Macron, Starmer and Meloni - have the balls to stand up and do what is not just right, but what is long term the one with the most positive outcome. The problem is that they want to be reelected. And their economies are already creaking.

We need someone in Europe with balls and vision and strength. Will that person arise, or will Europe fold?

Europe and Canada would agree to a ceasefire on current lines as would Zelensky but not Trump's initial proposals

Yes:

Europe and Zelenskyy would take:

- current lines
- no restrictions on armed forces
- ability to enter into alliances

Russia wants

- more Ukrainan territory
- Ukraine to be a puppet state

I hope Ukraine and Europe hold their nerves.

Actually, I hope Europe (and the UK) stops being reactive. It's time to announce something outrageous as the price for peace (Putin's resignation and prosecution for war crimes + all Ukrainian lands). And then it's time to take Russian assets that are frozen and use them to back up Ukraine to the hilt.

Just like the UK government and the economy you have to break the loop where all you are doing is reacting to the other party's moves and switch it round. So Ukraine needs to start affecting Russian energy exports and power generation, and Russia needs to be the one who is reacting.

Sadly, the West's politicians are either venal or weak.