Best Of

She has an impressive back story. Not only the first student from Manchester Polytechnic to become a deputy Prime Minister but possibly the first one to get a decent job. There's a lot to like. She's achieved what she has the hard way and she's not a sleazeball. In a choice between her and Farage only the creepiest would choose Farage.

Thankfully, I think the age of choosing Prime Ministers by back story has probably passed. The daft obsession with optics, vibes, what sort of sofa do they have, belongs to an age of 2000s budget surpluses and feels very anachronistic when we're staring down the barrel of an economic crisis.

C'mon, whether a pol would be a traitor or a faithful appears to be of vital importance currently.
Or at least in the minds of those politicians desperately trying but failing to find the common touch.

Disclaimer: never watched an episode of this programme so no real idea what these terms refer to.

Me neither - thought I was the last person on earth.

Nor me. The only 'reality' I do is Bake Off.

We resisted Traitors until last week. Then we succumbed and binge watched Celebrity Traitors. It turns out the rest of the country is right, it's addictive.

Westminster Voting Intention:
THE LAST EVER IPSOS WITH SKS LAB in 2nd


RFM: 33% (-1)
LAB: 18% (-4)
CON: 16% (+2)
GRN: 15% (+3)
LDM: 12% (=)

Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov.
Changes w/ 11-17 Sep.

I don't suppose you would be up for a bet on that?

Yes £20 Charity of our choices.

Terms would be SKS has to be leader at the time of the VI Poll. Which has to be an Ipsos Mori one

Joint 2nd is void

So you win if Lab are clear 2nd during the time SKS is still leader.in an Ipsos Mori Poll

Bet settles in my favour if they have not been in clear 2nd by the time SKS is ousted or resigns.

Is that OK with you

I must admit, I'm a bit surprised you are so optimistic on Labour retaking the lead so quickly.

Remember - a Reform government would rapidly lose its majority. MPs quitting - I didn’t know I’d have to go to London. Others thrown out for shockingly being unveiled as massive racists. Others thrown out for squabbling with the boss.

Drawing the (fairly weak) weak analogy about how many Republican Congressmen and Senators have been willing to suck up whatever Trump wanted them to do perhaps implies that whilst there may be ructions in such a Government, there might not be that many expelled from Parliament.

Rupert Lowe and James McMurdock are still there.

Speaking of the Republican Party and Reform UK, what if MAGA does splinter further, or what if Trump becomes completely toxic, how does that affect Reform here? If there is some smoking gun, a photo of Trump with topless underage girls, what happens to #1 Trump fan Nigel Farage?

There was an attempt by Phil Moorhouse on A Different Bias to develop that thesis late last week. I did not find it quite convincing; it felt like a bit of a stretch.

I found Farage's links to Steve Bannon a more convincing narrative.

And also his running away from the questions he was asked in that congressional committee some time ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R313AhDnPAA

Short of anything criminal which I do not expect, I think it depends on how Farage is perceived by the elements of his support coalition (which is different between his base and his supporters). There was recent large scale polling (10k+ sample) by Hope Not Hate exploring that, which is an interesting contrast to the parallel work they did before the 2024 Election.

In my thinking it is important to distinguish between the Reform care and fringe.

Phil Moorhouse also did one exploring the latest HNH assessment of "tribes of Reform supporters".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K_8BP3_WQo

This is the current version of their "5 tribes of Reform supporters", which is imo a decent set of labels than last time for identifying groups to address. But it needs some commentary to elucidate.


There are decent summaries here from the Welsh TUC:
https://nation.cymru/news/five-groups-of-people-support-reform-uk-but-theyre-not-all-racists/

Interesting, though as with characterising the left categories like 'thoughtless idiots', 'fat bloke in pub', 'simplistic ignoramus', 'seeker of riots' are omitted, perhaps out of politeness. Have 'libertarians' all vanished too?

Helpful would be a list of 10 or so really substantial things Reform would do to make all these groups dance in the streets, bring back happy days and get Reform re-elected.

When a GE gets near the issue of how to be elected is interesting but secondary. The deeper issue is policy and actual realisation and implementation of it. Governments have not found this easy recently. Why do I think Reform might find it hard too?

Good morning

Reform do not have the answers, but the more relevant question is why has the electorate become so disillusioned that Reform or the Greens may well have a big say in the next GE

The truth is the established parties have failed and simply have no answers because they fear the truth will not get them elected

Is enough attention being paid to this conundrum:

1) It currently appears to me that only two parties, at most, could possibly lead (minority or majority) the next government - Reform and Labour
2) About 65% of the population don't want a Reform government and won't vote for one
3) About 75% of the population don't want a second Labour government and say they won't vote for one

Therefore there might be something wrong with proposition (1). But I have no idea what it is. And there can't be no party who can lead the next government (as minority or majority) because the laws of maths don't allow it and nature abhors a vacuum.

Enlightenment?

There's almost always a majority who vote against the election winner.
It's not a conundrum. It's a cornerstone of FPTP.

Thanks. I take that point, but in the olden days to win on FPTP you needed plus or minus 40% to win and the two majoe parties were much less far apart - there was a reasonable degree of 'losers consent.

Now, on the polling, about 80% don't want to vote Labour, and they are intensely disliked. Fewer, 65%+ don't want Reform, but it is reasonable to expect that they feel quite or very strongly anti-Reform.

So, as things stand (obviously stuff will change) there are both large and strong populations who really don't want Labour, and really don't want Reform, to a degree different from the past.

60% didn't want Thatcher. We got Thatcher anyway. FPTP is shite.