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YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

RefUK 27%(+1),
CON 17%(nc),
LAB 17%(-3),
GRN 16%(+1)
LDEM 15%(nc),

According to YouGov, the 17% for Labour is, they believe believe, the lowest we have shown them on and the Green score is their highest.

Needless to say, it's an unusual result with four parties within 2 points of each other.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1983053821849817502

Labour and the Tories now tied and only just ahead of the Greens and LDs shows that both the main parties are finding it difficult to distinguish themselves. Labour are losing votes to their left to the Greens and to the centre to the LDs and the Tories have already lost the right to Reform and under Kemi are losing centrist voters to the LDs as well.

Reform ahead clearly but only on 27% so still very vulnerable to anti Farage tactical voting

It's a fascinating time to be involved in politics! There is a very simple message from the electorate - they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more. The party who can offer the most convincing fix for the mess will win.

You don't think the winner will be the Party offering the most attractive illusion?

I think there are two more cycles: Reform and then radical left (Green or Sultana) And then we may consider facing up to our problems. But we are not at rock bottom yet.

Radical Left would be apocalyptic.

No-one would come out with any private assets intact out the other side, and it'd take us decades to recover, and many of us never would.

Interesting question? Would we prefer a Corbyn/Foot type government or Farage/Trump type of Government?

I appreciate it sounds like a choice of which foot would you like to shoot, but if I had to choose I would go for Corbyn/Foot because although they might be worse at running the economy (maybe?) they aren't obviously destroying the democracy. Further left and of course that is also a possibilty

Foot was a democrat, yes.

I would not be confident that a government led by Your Party would uphold democracy.

WRT Farage/Trump, I think that the latter is obviously willing to threaten violence against opponents, and to overturn constitutional norms. Farage is more of a Captain Mainwaring/Colonel Blimp-type character.

It seems to me that Captain Mainwaring, bumptious but fundamentally kind-hearted, and (Powell and Pressburger’s) Colonel Blimp, old-fashioned but honourable, are much better figures than the fear-mongering, economically illiterate charlatan Nigel Farage.

Farage is actually a spiv. And not an endearing one.

Honestly I suspect why anyone should CARE about the number of black people in ads. If black people want to make as much tits of themselves as white people singing about Tesco Clubcard in a random street, why shouldn't they?

Not sure that many do.

What many DO care about is this that those who commission and make the adverts deciding who should be in them based on the colour of their skin.

It is cynical and sickening.

But are they?

As opposed to putting out adverts that shift the most breakfast cereal to the most customers?

Which is pretty cynical, but that's the advertising business for you.

If Roger is typical of the industry, then I'm not sure why we're surprised by anything that they turn out.

Do I take that as a compliment? One of the first commercials I shot was for British Telecom shops. The storyboard showed a family of three going into a British Telecom shop then looking around at phones. The soundtrack was''Let's go to the hop' changed obviously to 'shop'.

I cast a man a woman and a pink poodle and a black boy of about 12 who could really dance. All dressed like Teddy boys and girls. The Agency producer said he thought the client might not be happy. I said if they didn't like it ask whether the problem was the black boy. That would cure them of any hang ups if they had them.

None at all. they were delighted. That was 1987.Very rare at that time to have any black people in commercials. As a stills photographer doing fashion I shot lots but not on TV.

Honestly I suspect why anyone should CARE about the number of black people in ads. If black people want to make as much tits of themselves as white people singing about Tesco Clubcard in a random street, why shouldn't they?

Not sure that many do.

What many DO care about is this that those who commission and make the adverts deciding who should be in them based on the colour of their skin.

It is cynical and sickening.

Not really. It’s just advertisers wanting to make sure that all their potential customers are represented. The same people who care about this are the same people who think that peak oppression is that golliwogs are no longer ok.

I've kept out oof this because its a topic in which all opinions are wilfully misinterpreted. The crime she has committed is noticing. Dont be under any illusions that activist groups havent been counting. It's what they do, they count and they count. They enter organisations through DEI, through external consulting and the shake down begins "it's a nice company you have here, it would be a shame if anything happened to it".

The only thing the Reform MP did was notice the cultural revolution that has been happening.

I have some very modest insights into the casting process because my daughter has an agent and is occasionally considered for advertising roles. She is mixed race so you'd think she should be in every ad going as part of the cultural Marxist assault on British values via the medium of Domino's adverts, but no, she hasn't appeared in any.
From conversations with her agent I know that there has probably been a bit of a fad for casting non-white actors (ie my daughter's ethnically ambiguous look is 'in' currently) but I am somewhat doubtful that this is more than a passing fad borne of white guilt (especially as putting minority 'talent' on screen can deflect from the lack of diversity behind the camera). I also know that the media industry like a lot of things is heavily concentrated in and around London, so the pool of available actors skews non white a lot more than elsewhere in the UK (I can see this from the other children at the agency). Also, London creatives' idea of what is 'normal' will be dictated by what they see around them. Just as someone who lives in eg Lincolnshire will have their perception skewed in the opposite direction.
But I suspect the main reason you see a lot of mixed race families especially in ads is that the firm is trying to appeal to as broad a range of people as possible. It is a commercially driven decision.
As someone who is actually a member of a mixed race family I find it disturbing in the extreme that there are people out there who find it triggering to see families like mine on their TV screen. Are we not an example of the 'integration' they claim to want to see? What is it about us that these people find so threatening? Would we be safe if people like this were in power? I am not sure.

Good morning

I think Lammy's performance yesterday was a sad reflection on our politics as he ranted and raved at the dispatch box that must have had the victims of this woeful affair watching in despair

Passing the buck, then laughing, gesticulating, and pointing is exactly the reason politics is in the gutter at present

It may delight some but I expect the public turned away in disgust

I understand your reaction, but perhaps you have missed what he is reacting to.

The Tories are pretending that everything happened after they were demolished last year. All Labour. So we now have Coutinho attacking the policies she literally crowed about as SofS for Energy, Jenrick stood outside an asylum hotel he opened as SofS demanding it be closed etc etc etc.

Jenrick says there needs to be an independent enquiry of the kind he never enacted when it happened under his watch. Braverman went one further, huffing and puffing about this release until someone pointed out the Exact Same Thing happened when she was Home Secretary. Badenoch saying "the Tories have a plan to" do all the things they didn't do for 14 years.

So yeah, Lammy got angry, because your party are grifting hypocrites. And its all over social media, elected Tories and their shills posting stuff that just gets laughed at. People aren't stupid, they remember last year, the year zero strategy isn't working. And Jenrick is supposed to be next in line...