Best Of

Morning all

I enjoy wittering on about the Conservative Party - I know it annoys the "old school" Tories who proliferate on here.

The party is approaching a crossroads (not as in a fictional suburban Birmingham hotel). It's quite clear there is a niche (not perhaps a large one but one nonetheless) for a party determined to talk about sound finances and being supportive of business and aspiration (the details on that to follow presumably).

The corollary of that is recognising some form of immigration (specialist, professional, skilled but not exclusively) is needed to foster economic growth, raise tax revenues and cover our spending commitments whether they be welfare, defence or debt interest repayments. That's not to advocate uncontrolled mass immigration by any stretch but acknowledging there is a strong economic argument for importing (as well as developing internally) the skills required to grow the economy.

In the current mood, such a party might not poll well but might have the advantage of sounding coherent - sometimes you need to say what's right, not necessarily what people want to hear (Stodge's Eleventh Law of Politics).

The other side of that is looking at other parties realistically and seeing with whom these objectives can best be advanced or achieved in any future Parliament without an overall majority for any one party.

Theer are three options - first, move closer to Reform and accept the likely role of being a junior partner in a Government led by Farage and Tice. That means encouraging your voters to vote Reform in any seat where the Conservatives have no chance and Reform do. Second, move away from Reform and toward other parties as part of a broad anti-Reform movement - encourage your voters to vote tactically in any constituency where the Conservatives have no chance against Reform and choosing the party (whichever it may be) most likely to stop Reform.

The third option is to do neither and adopt the good old Alliance policy of equidistance. If you want sensible Conservative policies, vote Conservative would seem the obvious approach. There's an old adage "to thine own self be true" but first you have to decide what that "own self" really is and in what it believes.

This is the challenge which afflicted the Alliance and the Lib Dems from the mid 1980s to 2010 - in an unstable and potentially chaotic post-election Parliament, you might be the kingmaker - on whose head do you put the crown?

Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.

Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case

Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy

Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.

According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.

The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/24/rishi-sunak-only-politician-see-witness-statement-china-spy-case

Almost exactly as predicted.

..Drafts of a statement provided to DNSA included the term 'enemy' but he removed this term from the final draft as it did not reflect government policy."
Collins said he sent a final version of the draft to the prime minister at the time, Rishi Sunak, and his special advisers.
He said at this point, police were told he "could not call China an 'enemy' as this did not reflect government policy"...

I mean, I get it.
Starmer is pretty crap.

But the continual attempts to blame him for the previous government's policy blunders and controversies are getting a bit wearing.

I find it increasingly bizarre that so many on here return to the question of Brexit at every opportunity, even if the links require the most tortuous of reasoning. Anyone who persuades themselves that it is still Brexit that is driving Reform or their voters is deluding themselves. The country has moved on, Brexit is neither the land of milk and honey promised or the disaster predicted. We have so many real and profound problems to address, not only economic (although they are particularly acute) but also cultural and social.

This is true and not true. Brexit as a distinct issue isn't driving Reform voters, it's in the past, however Reform voters were overwhelmingly Leavers (if old enough) and the set of attitudes, preoccupations and concerns (centred around immigration but not only that) which led them to vote for Brexit is pushing them towards Reform now. If (god forbid) Farage wins the next GE it will largely be because he's persuaded most of Johnson's 2019 Get Brexit Done coalition to come out and vote for him. "You told them what you wanted, they didn't listen, tell them again and this time for real".

Obviously many who voted for Brexit are now voting for Reform but I really don't believe Brexit itself has much to do with it. Their current obsessions are
(1) immigration, especially illegal immigration which they think is much bigger than it actually is, as opposed to legal migration which is vastly bigger than they appreciate.

(2) Frustration that the government in particular but the public sector in general is simply not providing the services that they want, whether that is hospital or GP treatment in a sensible time, education for their kids, care for elderly relatives, decent roads, etc etc.

(3) A widely held perception that Labour has proven to be every bit as "useless" as the Tories in failing to address these problems and that the mainstream parties are simply not listening to people like them. Much of this is because they are being persuaded that there are simplistic and easy solutions when there is not but there is also enough truth in this to scare the mainstream parties.

Farage is using the same techniques and, well, lies, to build up these perceptions as he did Brexit. Its what he does. But unless and until so many people can simply move on from Brexit they will not get an audience from these supporters. This is so self evident even Starmer got it although I see that Reeves is back falling into the trap again.

I agree with most of that. My point is more that the Leave v Remain political identity divide forged by Brexit is still salient in our politics. It's the former pool where Farage is fishing and if he wins it will be off the back of a voter coalition looking very similar to Johnson's in 2019.

It wasn't leave v remain, it was the not doing that well versus the well off and nothing has changed...

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/study-finds-wealthy-more-likely-to-have-voted-for-brexit

Messier even than that;

From that press release:

People living in left-behind areas were more likely to support Brexit than those living in prosperous areas. The gains of Brexit were perceived to be greater in areas of the country that had experienced economic decline. But within those areas, given people's preferences, we show that wealthier individuals were more likely to vote for Brexit, and poorer individuals were more likely to vote for Remain.

Which sort of fits the Red Wall stereotype. Also the Eastern Wall aspect of the Reform map. Kent and Essex aren't poor, but they are distinctly second-tier Home Counties.

A tricky tangle of problems to solve, especially since many of the things that might help economically (more tax for more public spending; becoming more like London/Manchester) are culturally taboo.

The next general election is going to be all about tactical voting. Britons are very good at tactical voting and centre-left Britons are especially good at it. One thing that I am a little more sure about today is that there is a majority of us who really hate Reform and its dishonest and divisive approach to politics, and I think that this majority may be more effective than people expect at locking Reform out of power.

Rather a shame, though, that there's unlikely to be any interest from that present majority to address the issues that motivate others to become Reform voters.

I don't think that is right at all. Labour is absolutely focused on fixing the asylum system so that those without a valid claim can be deported quickly, it is focused on cutting the huge backlog it inherited in the NHS, it is focused on housebuilding to deal with the massive housing shortage it inherited... but all of these things take time and so we will only see the results in coming years. To deal with the country's problems we need competence and steady progress, not populist slogans, scaremongering and scapegoating.

We do, but sadly competence isn't something I've associated with this government so far in its short service.

They have already started to reduce the NHS waiting list (slowly) after it rose from 2mn to 8mn under the Tories. Money is tight and the machinery of government has atrophied in recent decades so I don't expect spectacular improvements, but behind the scenes this government has started the slow process of turning things around, IMHO.

Sorry if posted already but a Welsh journalist take on the result, sad to read in the closing paragraph that they have faced numerous threats of violence for being a reporter.

https://willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/plaid-smash-reform-to-win-in-caerphilly

No need to apologise - it's a fascinating report. Also his comment on behaviour and style of the candidates and their party leaders, SKS scoring null (he never came), and the acknowledgement speecxh of Mr Whittle.

'Laughing at the fact he had attempted to win this seat over a dozen times he said:

“Ladies and gentlemen, you will forgive me, I’m not used to speaking first in these election counts.”

He then added:

“Whilst we are perhaps euphoric in some parties tonight, I would respectfully ask that you remember the reason we are having this by election.

“I am very proud to pay tribute, and this is hard, to Hefin David and to his family and friends, I extend my personal sympathies. He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes. But I promise you, I will walk the same path that he did. And I can pay no finer tribute to an excellent man.”'