Best Of
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
I don't know if it's been mentioned, but apparently it's the Rapture tomorrow.
Coincidentally, my parents are in Utah on holiday. I'll tell them to look out for it
Coincidentally, my parents are in Utah on holiday. I'll tell them to look out for it
Cookie
5
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
Bit harsh on Davey there.I am Spartacus. Never, ever will I vote for that scum.Interesting numbers.Ed Davey just finished an interview with Beth Rigby on Sky
Like Space Kadets, something has repulsors.
I don't Lib Dems doing any more than Confidence and Supply, having had their fingers burnt last time.
Do we have any verdicts on the Conference yet? Do we get a Glee King and Glee Queen?
Problem is he is not top billing at present
I really hope the UK voters reject Farage's ugly and divisive proposals
I certainly will as will my good lady
Nigelb
6
Re: The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com
My fear is that once again, no matter how ridiculous and delusional Farage's proposals are, people are going to be genuinely astonished to learn that you can apply for ILR having been here for 5 years. A lot of people who would have been quite relaxed about foreigners coming here to do unpleasant and low paid jobs for a time will not have appreciated the rights that are given as a matter of course to those who do them.It always comes down to a sense of control - it really does feel like we have essentially open borders and provide housing, NHS, benefits to all who come, no questions asked. Boriswave + boats.
The response of the government rather gives the game away on this, stating that they are in the process (honest) of extending the period to 10 years. Whether Farage's solutions have any credibility he has succeeded once again in demonstrating that the established parties are universally seeking to pull the wool over the eyes of the British public and many will be a lot more annoyed about that than any alleged imperfections in his solution.
I dislike the notion that you have to earn a certain amount to live and work here though - low paid agricultural workers allow British people to sit in an office earning money; carers looks after our parents. Those people should have access to the NHS and other public services on a temporary basis. If they commit to the UK and demonstrate they can live within our laws, then ILR should be offered under reasonably strict criteria, not automatically.
I disagree entirely with the idea of deporting those who already have ILR. That seems like a grotesque betrayal of many good people who have built their lives here.
Eabhal
5
Re: The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com
I am disappointed not one of you has acknowledged my brilliance with the headline on this.Oh I got it, just didn’t want to give you the satisfaction
Clearly the Dunning-Kruger test pun is too subtle for you all.
eek
6
Re: Nobody is willing to sacrifice themselves for the King of the North – politicalbetting.com
Just back from 🇺🇦- from the most intensive startup conference I ever visited - Defence Tech Valley.
- Number of battle-proven Ukrainian Defence startups is still growing. More importantly - they keep developing new features & products so fast that sometimes it's difficult to recognise a company 6 months later.
- Old EU Defence companies have still a huge challenge adapting to the speed of changes on the frontline. Their products are outdated & 10x more pricey - and not in high demand in Ukraine.
- A growing number of the sharpest European founders are entering defence tech. And they understand that they have to spend most of their time in Ukraine.
- Defence Valley was heavily dominated by drones. Countless FPVs, 60+ UGVs and everything around the drone ecosystem . But there are still big challenges in some areas.
- There is still no clear winner who could replace DJI for ISR. Yes there are some promising products, but nothing at scale on the frontline yet. The interceptor drones segment seems to have the biggest growth in 2025 - at least 50 companies are building something but 5–7 are ahead of others with real combat success. There was a very impressive lineup of bombers, but on the frontline Baba Yaga is still dominated by Vampires with 50% market share. And finally - the most needed thing is still CHEAP mid-strike: 60–200 km drones.
- I had nonstop meetings with Ukrainian military who are extremely eager to use any new tech - without any red tape or delay. Defence Valley is the only Defence event in the world, where you can talk with soldiers who came directly from the frontline. Some elite drone units like Khartia, Azov, K2, 3rd Brigade, Achilles. Rarog even had their own stand. And those folks are the fastest at implementing new stuff into combat.
- My favourite product was definitely a 12-meter underwater drone from Toloka. With a range of up to 2,000 km & payload of up to 5 tons. And it was great to meet with Pink Flamingos indeed! And her family is much bigger than known.
- Most of the companies showed products that are still very rough - not finished - but already having REAL combat tests. Most Ukrainian founders don't know the EU market, are bad at marketing/sales, but they are fast builders..
https://x.com/ragnars/status/1969671365461442788
- Number of battle-proven Ukrainian Defence startups is still growing. More importantly - they keep developing new features & products so fast that sometimes it's difficult to recognise a company 6 months later.
- Old EU Defence companies have still a huge challenge adapting to the speed of changes on the frontline. Their products are outdated & 10x more pricey - and not in high demand in Ukraine.
- A growing number of the sharpest European founders are entering defence tech. And they understand that they have to spend most of their time in Ukraine.
- Defence Valley was heavily dominated by drones. Countless FPVs, 60+ UGVs and everything around the drone ecosystem . But there are still big challenges in some areas.
- There is still no clear winner who could replace DJI for ISR. Yes there are some promising products, but nothing at scale on the frontline yet. The interceptor drones segment seems to have the biggest growth in 2025 - at least 50 companies are building something but 5–7 are ahead of others with real combat success. There was a very impressive lineup of bombers, but on the frontline Baba Yaga is still dominated by Vampires with 50% market share. And finally - the most needed thing is still CHEAP mid-strike: 60–200 km drones.
- I had nonstop meetings with Ukrainian military who are extremely eager to use any new tech - without any red tape or delay. Defence Valley is the only Defence event in the world, where you can talk with soldiers who came directly from the frontline. Some elite drone units like Khartia, Azov, K2, 3rd Brigade, Achilles. Rarog even had their own stand. And those folks are the fastest at implementing new stuff into combat.
- My favourite product was definitely a 12-meter underwater drone from Toloka. With a range of up to 2,000 km & payload of up to 5 tons. And it was great to meet with Pink Flamingos indeed! And her family is much bigger than known.
- Most of the companies showed products that are still very rough - not finished - but already having REAL combat tests. Most Ukrainian founders don't know the EU market, are bad at marketing/sales, but they are fast builders..
https://x.com/ragnars/status/1969671365461442788
Nigelb
5
Re: The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com
My apolitical Russian mother's family left Russia in 1927 not because they passionately disagreed with the Revolution but because it was increasingly mandatory to support the current government line *which frequently changed*. They moved to Danzig/Gdansk, and found it was in some ways worse, with the future Gauleiter living next door and flying the Nazi flag (they put up a Soviet flag as a way of avoiding guilt by association). My grandfather, very talented in languages, started a second legal career in Berlin. They sheltered Jewish families in Gdansk and muddled on until 1937, when the trend was clear, and then used banking connections to move to Britain, except my grandfather, who started a third civil legal career in Argentina. The idea was that the family would join him once he was established, but WW2 intervened and stopped all civilian traffic; by the time it resumed the amicable separation was permanent. Fed up with Continental fanaticism, my mother loved the apolitical British and enthusiastically adopted British nationality, speakig English without an accent very quickly. She refused to teach me Russian, on the basis that bilingual kids didn't have a solld allegiance, and we were British, full stop. She voted Tory throughout her adult life on the basis that they were blessedly free of dogma - she revised her opinion on the arrival of Thatcher, and joined Chelsea Labour Party so as to support me, though she'd turn up to branch meetings wearing her fur coat and looking distinctly out of place. She bonded with the one genuinely working-class member, who recognised her genuine friendliness, but regarded the various earnest middle-class leftists with suspicion.I suppose it's always worth considering that politicians only support part of their party's platform, just like the rest of us. I usually vote Tory in general elections but it's unlikely I support 50% of their manifesto, just I agree with less of the other parties'. If I support 40% of the LibDems' manifesto then I am close to switching (and in fact I normally vote Lib Dem in local elections)I can never fathom why anyone who has committed themselves to one political party, even if only for career reasons, would change straight over to another party. In that situation, I would be spending at least 6 months as an independent.I think we underestimate the extent to which politicians are people and their relationships matter to them. A defection may be as much about a relationship someone has developed with a politician in another party that they find is surprisingly like-minded, then it is about ideology or career ambitions.
You'd expect a MP to support a bit more of their party's platform, but platforms change and other parties may become better at representing their views
Strange background! I've never disowned it, any more than I've disowned my teenage communist sympathies that reacted against my apolitical parents. We are all creatures of our environment.
Re: The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com
I just watched this clip of Erika Kirk’s eulogy for her husbandWe'll expect a change in your commentary from now on then - kinder, gentler, broader in spirit, seeking to spread not hate and division but love and togetherness.
Wow. WOW WOW WOW
https://x.com/__injaneb96/status/1969913302454309147?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Probably the most powerful example of speech-making I’ve seen this decade. Deeply moving. Made me stop and think. Watch it
kinabalu
7
Re: The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com
I maintain this drawing/painting is a million times worse than anything the critics of Charlie Kirk have ever said about him. I thought it was Sam Smith.


Re: Nobody is willing to sacrifice themselves for the King of the North – politicalbetting.com
If this site is representative of public opinion then we’re heading for dark times. That’s all.
MelonB
7
Re: Nobody is willing to sacrifice themselves for the King of the North – politicalbetting.com
Are they seriously going to suggest this for people with Indefinite Leave to Remain/Settled Status. This is entirely bonkers involving millions of absolutely ordinary people who have made their home, lawfully, here for years.Daily Telegraph - "Nigel Farage will pledge to eject hundreds of thousands of legal migrants in an unprecedented reversal of Britain’s relaxed border rules.I can't read the details because I am not a Telegraph subscriber, and nobody else seems to have the story yet.It must be resisted by anyone with a moral compassThis country must stand united against this evil policyI've several Indian colleagues who live over here. Difficult to know what to say truthfully to them if they mentioned any of this. 'Get out while you still can'?
Farage pledges to expel hundreds of thousands of migrants
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/09/21/farage-reform-pledges-expel-hundreds-thousands-migrants/
The Reform UK leader will unveil plans to force all migrants with permanent residency to reapply for visas under stricter criteria including a higher salary requirement and a better standard of English.
The party would also change the law to prevent foreign nationals from accessing the British welfare system. The party claims this would save £234bn over the lifetime of the average migrant.
Writing in The Telegraph, below, Zia Yusuf, Reform’s policy chief, said the changes would lead to “hundreds of thousands of people having to apply and ultimately losing their settled status in the UK” on a staggered basis to prevent disruption to businesses."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/09/21/farage-reform-pledges-expel-hundreds-thousands-migrants/
Edit. I don't subscribe to the Telegraph but this article appears to be free to read?

