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Re: The challenge for the Conservatives – politicalbetting.com
It's impressive for a party to have a split before it has a name.
Do keep up!
Re: The challenge for the Conservatives – politicalbetting.com
Good morning, everyone.
Thank goodness, seems Labour may well axe the two child benefit cap.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy917g0420o
With our ballooning surplus and endlessly overflowing national coffers, I'm ever so grateful they've found a way to finally spend some of our excess cash.
Thank goodness, seems Labour may well axe the two child benefit cap.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy917g0420o
With our ballooning surplus and endlessly overflowing national coffers, I'm ever so grateful they've found a way to finally spend some of our excess cash.
Re: The challenge for the Conservatives – politicalbetting.com
Very good thread as all the other ones have been, even though one can quibble with some of this detailed arguments (bumping us up in the PISA education rankings by getting teachers to produce literate and numerate students was a big and under-reported Conservative achievement, working class jobs were vanishing long before 1991 - 1973 is a better date to choose, there is very little chance that the Conservatives would take part in a GNU under Starmer - they will want Labour to own that train wreck completely).
But overall threads like this are pb at its best.
But overall threads like this are pb at its best.
Fishing
8
Re: The challenge for the Conservatives – politicalbetting.com
Very good thread lead.
Brexit has been a triple whammy. Firstly, a classic case of egregious over-selling followed by failure, or under-delivery, according to view. If you reprise the leave campaign it isn’t unreasonable to have expected a dramatic reduction in immigration and a super-funded health service free of waiting lists. In both cases precisely the opposite has happened.
Secondly, it took the government’s eye off of every other ball for the best part of five years, while the Tories played out their internal divisions across the media as pitiful political psychodrama. Tories still misunderstand that the appeal of “get Brexit done” wasn’t, mostly, because people were itching for Brexit, but that they wanted Brexit “done with”, expecting the government to turn its attention to all the other stuff after. Did that happen? No - the Tories under Johnson and Truss just moved to other non-Brexit psychodramas and internal divisions, and never got back to the day job.
Thirdly, Brexit - or rather the way in which it was done - drove away from the Conservative ‘coalition’ a bunch of political talent and a slice of political support, pulling the party to the right at just the moment when a rival was setting out its stall on the same ground, and hence now they find themselves trapped without a solid base.
The one element missing from the lead is the demographic one - that a decade of pandering to economically inactive pensioners has left the Tories with pitifully low levels of support amongst those in work, and with a support base that is moving off the electoral register at three to four times the rate for voters of the other parties.
It is hard to see any prospect of Tory recovery until there has been a complete turnover of political generation, with new young leadership untainted by the failures of the past, and with something to say to younger folk (which in a Tory context means those aged below 60). Those Tory MPs working with Shapps to recover their seats need to come to terms with the fact that the party doesn’t need them, any more. Indeed the Tories best chance is for Reform to transform into a vehicle for older failed-once Tory retreads while they move on to pastures new. Right now there is very little sign coming out of the party that they’re even at first base in terms of either the required thinking or the required change.
Brexit has been a triple whammy. Firstly, a classic case of egregious over-selling followed by failure, or under-delivery, according to view. If you reprise the leave campaign it isn’t unreasonable to have expected a dramatic reduction in immigration and a super-funded health service free of waiting lists. In both cases precisely the opposite has happened.
Secondly, it took the government’s eye off of every other ball for the best part of five years, while the Tories played out their internal divisions across the media as pitiful political psychodrama. Tories still misunderstand that the appeal of “get Brexit done” wasn’t, mostly, because people were itching for Brexit, but that they wanted Brexit “done with”, expecting the government to turn its attention to all the other stuff after. Did that happen? No - the Tories under Johnson and Truss just moved to other non-Brexit psychodramas and internal divisions, and never got back to the day job.
Thirdly, Brexit - or rather the way in which it was done - drove away from the Conservative ‘coalition’ a bunch of political talent and a slice of political support, pulling the party to the right at just the moment when a rival was setting out its stall on the same ground, and hence now they find themselves trapped without a solid base.
The one element missing from the lead is the demographic one - that a decade of pandering to economically inactive pensioners has left the Tories with pitifully low levels of support amongst those in work, and with a support base that is moving off the electoral register at three to four times the rate for voters of the other parties.
It is hard to see any prospect of Tory recovery until there has been a complete turnover of political generation, with new young leadership untainted by the failures of the past, and with something to say to younger folk (which in a Tory context means those aged below 60). Those Tory MPs working with Shapps to recover their seats need to come to terms with the fact that the party doesn’t need them, any more. Indeed the Tories best chance is for Reform to transform into a vehicle for older failed-once Tory retreads while they move on to pastures new. Right now there is very little sign coming out of the party that they’re even at first base in terms of either the required thinking or the required change.
IanB2
7
Re: Joyous and civic update – politicalbetting.com
Geography, of course. Like his father, his grandfather, his uncle and his geography teaching grandmother (who met his grandfather studying geography at Durham).Out of interest what’s he looking to study?My son’s going through his applications for a second time at the moment (he applied last year, got his A levels and decided on a gap year) and it’s interesting how his assumptions about where’s good are very different to mine, based on his reading of actual subject rankings.It’s one of those weird choices for kids which a lot don’t have access to school insight to at deep levels - a lot of the time the best university isn’t “the best university”. In my case the career I wanted (at the time) made sense to go to UCL as it was the best place to do it and also had the benefit of being a top university but I can see how often people miss out on a career course (for want of a better way of putting it) because nobody is there to tell them that actually, if you want to do forensic archeology you are best going to Dundee.Down to Sue Black probably who was prof of forensic anthropology and anatomy in Dundee for 15 years. My pal painted this portrait of her.A bit niche but they always seem to be the go-to on archeology and crime docs when they need bones studied and skulls “brought to life” so they are either great at forensic archaeology or a bit twisted.I imagine it's largely the video game education that they provide? The art school also has a decent rep I think.Dundee did pretty well too in a recent league table (might have been the Graun one).Just across the Tay from the 'dee. I hope Leon is not encouraging the carrying of knives and axes.St. Andrews will be top of the table next year, if @Leon’s daughter has her father’s elevated IQ.Oxford and Cambridge fall out of top three UK universities for first timeAmazing how little damage the whole Gaddafi thing did to LSE's reputation.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/oxford-cambridge-oxbridge-latest-university-news-nqfc3xmrh (£££)
- LSE
- St Andrews
- Durham
- Oxford
- Cambridge
- Imperial
- Bath
- Warwick
- UCL
- Bristol
I’m hoping that these days with the internet students can research it themselves and find best options but I imagine there are still plenty going for bigger name universities and then losing out on specialised jobs to people who had the info on where was a good conveyor belt.
Back in the mists of time, when maths was witchfraft and magic, I remember Warwick being considered one of the best in the world for certain “types” of maths courses but people insisting on going to Oxford or Cambridge for the cachet, which is fair enough, but it does end up warping the system.
He’s just been to the Durham open day and I’m on the LNER to join him. It was second on his list but perhaps it should leapfrog to the top.
MelonB
5
Re: Joyous and civic update – politicalbetting.com
Three comments on the smoking discussion:
1. In WW II. American soldiers got a smoking ration. (And could buy more at at a PX -- which they sometimes stepped outside and sold to foreigners.)
2. Cosmopolitan magazine was quite late to tell its readers about the dangers of smoking; Readers Digest was early, partly, no doubt, because they did not accept advertising.
3. The reduction in smoking in the US during my life time is one of our biggest health achievements -- ever.
1. In WW II. American soldiers got a smoking ration. (And could buy more at at a PX -- which they sometimes stepped outside and sold to foreigners.)
2. Cosmopolitan magazine was quite late to tell its readers about the dangers of smoking; Readers Digest was early, partly, no doubt, because they did not accept advertising.
3. The reduction in smoking in the US during my life time is one of our biggest health achievements -- ever.
Re: Joyous and civic update – politicalbetting.com
I have a philosophy degree, and it's been very useful to me.Hear me out.Many people don’t end up working in an area related to their degree so the debt seems less worth it . Things are just so much tougher for younger people now .
Maybe getting 50k of debt (or 400k in the US) is actually the whole point of University.
I've been financially stretched many times in my life. When you've thrown your life savings behind a business idea, you have no choice but to make it succeed, otherwise all you have is a crushing mortgage and no job.
If you go to University, you have debt. Which means you have to work, or the debt will keep growing, and growing, and growing.
Indebted people work harder.
You see, when things don't work out, then at least I can be philosophical about it.
rcs1000
5
Re: Joyous and civic update – politicalbetting.com
I went to university as a mature student which meant I really knew what course I wanted to do . I loved it . The perfect blend of learning, great social life and some part-time work to help pay the bills .
I think 18 can be too young to really know what career you want . I finished the year before you had to pay tuition fees so just had the student loan thankfully .
I think 18 can be too young to really know what career you want . I finished the year before you had to pay tuition fees so just had the student loan thankfully .
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Re: Joyous and civic update – politicalbetting.com
Of course they haven't. You need a sense of humour to watch Monty Python.@DPJHodgesHave none of them ever watched Life of Brian?
So let me get this right. Corbyn and Sultana split from Labour. Then Sultana split from Corbyn. And now this new group has split from both of them.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1969068623869137216
5
Re: Joyous and civic update – politicalbetting.com
I went to university as a mature student which meant I really knew what course I wanted to do . I loved it . The perfect blend of learning, great social life and some part-time work to help pay the bills .If I were to give one piece of advice to 18 year olds, it would be not to go to university unless you know why you're going.
I think 18 can be too young to really know what career you want . I finished the year before you had to pay tuition fees so just had the student loan thankfully .
I went to uni at 18 because it was the next thing to do and it was expected. I did a subject because I'd been giod at it at school.
I went again at 31 to do a masters, with an eye on a specific outcome.
The latter was a far more rewarding experience and one I got a lot more out of.
Cookie
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