Best Of

The first poll in Runcorn and Helsby ahead of the upcoming by-election has Reform UK winning the constituency

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1900457587335643348

Anyone surprised?

How can anyone look at what has happened to America and still want British Trump with more MPs?

What they want is stuff to happen and things to work. They want GP appointments and an NHS waiting list of less than 6 months. They want the criminals warehoused. Some improvements on the high street would be nice.

Round here, the council is "consulting" about moving bin collections from once every two weeks, to once a month. The well off make extra arrangements. The poor people on the estates have a pile of stinking garbage. But they are all Deplorables or something. So that's all good then.

Telling people that nothing can be done and no one can do it, is a simple recipe for "Well, we will try this lot, then"

This is why Starmer is trying to do stuff.

Russia is moving into Belarus and now pointing out the Finland used to be Russian. Not the comments of someone worried about Trump.

Morning.

Any further info or links, on this ?

Worthwhile site to get an idea of alternative information. They monitor specific Russian bloggers and Russian media to get an idea of what Russians are being told. Allows anyone (including Presidents) to understand the optics on the other side.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2025

Thanks, will take a look there.

Some worrying comments from Musk this morning, considering that Thiel and Yarvin want to weaken the courts.

@elonmusk

Without judicial reform, which means at least the absolute worst judges get impeached, we don’t have real democracy in America

I am wondering what the new USA capitalist autocracy model will look like. I am assuming it will operate more on the Chinese model than the Russian one.

There is a lot of throwing around of the democracy word by the new administration. Expect more of this: without autocracy we’re not a true democracy.

It’s the tactic of populists the world over to conflate democracy with majoritarianism. Except in America they’re not even representing the majority.

I can only find one "by party" graph in the poll - support for sending troops to Ukraine. Reform UK out of line, as per the current usual.

I'd be interested to know which factions in Ref UK constitute the 20% difference. Commentary I have seen (TBF: social media of various types) suggests that they will be thinking "send the to the channel to stop the boats".

There has to first be a peace deal to enforce between Russia and Ukraine and second Russia would have to accept British peacekeeping troops none of which applies at present

Depressing that people are seriously defending the idea Russia should have a veto on what happens within a sovereign neighbouring country.

Putin says he will agree a ceasefire that leads to an 'enduring peace' but with conditions that Ukraine likely won't accept

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cgj5w6veqw6t

And Trump will pressure Ukraine to accept conditions - like no weapons shipments.

And Ukraine will reluctantly concede.

And then Russia will attack again in six months time.

And then weapons shipments to Ukraine would start again, maybe even from the US if Russia breached the deal

It'll be a bit late by then.

Why? A few months for Europe and Canada to invest in arms and defence via a ceasefire and if Russia breaches could then be deployed

Are we as NATO going to recapture Kyiv after Putin breaks the ceasefire and takes Ukraine.

No we didn't last time, just provide aid as before.

If Putin broke an agreed ceasefire US arms to Ukraine would also likely resume based on Trump's statements but a ceasefire has to be agreed first to break

Then your programme of rearming Ukraine after they have been captured by Moscow means you are too late.

Utter crap, the moment Russian troops broke a ceasefire arms would resume, they couldn't even capture Kyiv last time.

However Zelensky would have to have accepted a ceasefire on such terms anyway

Yeah but last time Ukraine had soldiers and weaponry. This time if they follow your advice they won't have soldiers and weaponry.

Why? They have soldiers and weaponry now which they could put in storage for if and when a ceasefire is broken.

If Putin and Zelensky agree a ceasefire that
is for them, you clearly would rather you and
your house were evaporated by a Russian
nuke!

Are you just being argumentative, or do you truly not understand how unbalanced Russia’s proposal is?

Well if it is that unbalanced Zelensky won't agree those terms anyway

Which is designed to make the US swing back towards Russia.

This whole thing is a game between the UK and Russia on who can swing Trump.

If Zelensky was sensible he would agree a
ceasefire on current lines but have it written in the agreement by Trump US aid and arms to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia would resume if Russian troops moved an inch beyond current Russian lines and refuse to sign without that in writing

A) sweet that you trust Trump
So Russia rearms and Ukraine doesn’t. And then Russia invades again. Doesn’t
seem… fair

Ukraine can rearm via its own factories
even under Putin’s terms, just not via imported arms.

And if Russia invaded then the US would also resume arms to Ukraine under the
terms I proposed Zelensky signs

How sweet that you trust Trump

Suggest you stick to the entrails of Tory party politics and polling data where you have sone clue what you are talking about

Putin says he will agree a ceasefire that leads to an 'enduring peace' but with conditions that Ukraine likely won't accept

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cgj5w6veqw6t

And Trump will pressure Ukraine to accept conditions - like no weapons shipments.

And Ukraine will reluctantly concede.

And then Russia will attack again in six months time.

And then weapons shipments to Ukraine would start again, maybe even from the US if Russia breached the deal

It'll be a bit late by then.

Why? A few months for Europe and Canada to invest in arms and defence via a ceasefire and if Russia breaches could then be deployed

Are we as NATO going to recapture Kyiv after Putin breaks the ceasefire and takes Ukraine.

No we didn't last time, just provide aid as before.

If Putin broke an agreed ceasefire US arms to Ukraine would also likely resume based on Trump's statements but a ceasefire has to be agreed first to break

Then your programme of rearming Ukraine after they have been captured by Moscow means you are too late.

Utter crap, the moment Russian troops broke a ceasefire arms would resume, they couldn't even capture Kyiv last time.

However Zelensky would have to have accepted a ceasefire on such terms anyway

Yeah but last time Ukraine had soldiers and weaponry. This time if they follow your advice they won't have soldiers and weaponry.

Why? They have soldiers and weaponry now which they could put in storage for if and when a ceasefire is broken.

If Putin and Zelensky agree a ceasefire that
is for them, you clearly would rather you and
your house were evaporated by a Russian
nuke!

Are you just being argumentative, or do you truly not understand how unbalanced Russia’s proposal is?

Well if it is that unbalanced Zelensky won't agree those terms anyway

Which is designed to make the US swing back towards Russia.

This whole thing is a game between the UK and Russia on who can swing Trump.

If Zelensky was sensible he would agree a
ceasefire on current lines but have it written in the agreement by Trump US aid and arms to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia would resume if Russian troops moved an inch beyond current Russian lines and refuse to sign without that in writing

A) sweet that you trust Trump
So Russia rearms and Ukraine doesn’t. And then Russia invades again. Doesn’t
seem… fair

Ukraine can rearm via its own factories
even under Putin’s terms, just not via imported arms.

And if Russia invaded then the US would also resume arms to Ukraine under the
terms I proposed Zelensky signs

How sweet that you trust Trump

Suggest you stick to the entrails of Tory party politics and polling data where you have sone clue what you are talking about

Fine I will stick sweetly on the sidelines and you can push us to nuclear war with Russia

It's fucked how not wanting a war with Russia (with a global nuclear conflict as a stretch goal) is dismissed by the warmongers, as a fringe opinion held only the uninformed and traitors.

Pretty much everyone is against war with Russia and global nuclear war.

For a change, why not make an honest argument for whatever the hell you think UK policy should be wrt Ukraine?

Being a working class Northerner, how do you lot pronounce Leominster?

I've pronounced it Lemster my entire life but somebody I heard the other day called it Leo Minster.

As a child did somebody play a cruel trick on me by telling me it was pronounced Lemster?

I think it's Lemster?

Never unless you are mental

It is pronounced Lemster, I have googled it.

I would never use Lemster, an abomination of the English language

How would you say Bicester, mister?

"Aah! Bicester!"