Best Of

‪Shashank Joshi‬ ‪@shashj.bsky.social‬
·
16m
Crikey. This is moving quicker than I expected. 'Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons.'

https://bsky.app/profile/shashj.bsky.social/post/3ljscagogzs2y

Well yes, the current Trump administration makes nuclear proliferation inevitable.

And with more (and more unstable) countries getting the bomb, it's only a matter of time before someone detonates one of the things.

When the history books are written in 50 years time - the greatest question that people won't get is how on earth did someone as inconsistent and unsuitable as Trump become President twice...

If there's anyone writing (accurate) history books

More likely the history books will asking how did the agendaist left seize control of the institutions of the west with no-one noticing. Why was Trump the person who noticed when thousands who saw themselves as more able than him just let it pass. Unlike Starmer, Biden wasn't an obvious Rubicon that should not have been passed. The change in the UK will be more understated but in many ways more vicious against those who have stolen the state from the people.

Back on topic I don't see a resolution.

The Palestinians believe that Israel is an occupying power ("from the river to the sea" is pretty unambiguous in terms of desired end state) and its very existence reason for the continued struggle, while Israel seems for the moment to be going nowhere.

It's certainly hard to see one right now. But things can change. Perhaps one day in America there will come to power a hard-nosed deal-making President who will use their leverage over Israel and its Arab neighbours in a forceful yet balanced way to force a two state solution.

I don't think many Palestinians, certainly the democratically-elected government of Gaza, wants a two-state solution.

I hear on the news that the EU is going to free up $800bn to rearm. SKS is talking about "boots on the ground."

Seems overkill to oppose Russia which is set to collapse any minute now according to PB war-watchers.

I don't think there are many on here or elsewhere that think Russia is about to collapse, though definition of what that may mean is likely to vary. Very few people predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, so it is possible, even if unlikely.

I myself, through having a personal connection with Ukraine, pray for the day when Putin dies or is overthrown, though what replaces him is almost as frightening. What is essential IMO, is that Russia must not be allowed to think that they have won. Their once assumed to be mighty military has been almost thoroughly humiliated by a much smaller one.

They will no doubt try to learn from this and rearm. We need to form a new alliance of democratic powers and release the US from what is clearly too big a burden for them, the grown-up burden of leadership. They can be reinvited to such a club if they return to being a beacon of hope and freedom such as they used to be. I also pray for that day.

*Raises hand* - I'm tentatively predicting the collapse of Russia, within 20 years or so. But there's a lot can happen between now and then. Very broadly, we are much better off if we are in a position to contain and shape the Russian collapse than if we are not. And importantly, the fewer people Russia is able to kill and the less of the world economy it is able to control between now and then, the better.

Russia is currently, clearly, a major threat to Ukraine, and if it is able to conclude its war in Ukraine favourably, it will be a major threat to our allies in Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia. This strikes me as a bad outcome and I do not understand the view of those who are indifferent to it.

However, while there are good and bad outcomes for what remains of the west, there are no good outcomes for Russia. If it loses, it has lost millions of people and most of its cash reserves for nothing and its people are likely to be a bit cross. If it wins, it has expanded its empire, but a significant share of its population will be sullen and resentful. History suggests this is more likely to be an expensive burden for it than a benefit.

FWIW, my prediction is that ... after this lot ... we are likely to have a new cold war with an iron curtain along wherever the final ceasefire / armistice line turns out to be.

I have no idea when Russia will collapse ... last time it took 30-45 years, depending how the start is dated.

One (not very likely, but more charitable than the obvious) theory about Mr Trump's actions is that he is concerned about the consequences of a complete Russian collapse in terms of China getting fuller Pacific access and a big chunk of Russia than he is about the consequences of collapsing Ukraine and handing it over to be dismembered.

From a USA Govt realpolitikal view, there is some logic to it.

Yes, I've thought along those lines. If and when Russia does collapse, who picks up the pieces? One way of making sure it's not China is by doing what Putin is now.
Possibly in 25 years time, the superpowers of the day (USA? China? Europe? None of them are by any means certain to still be powers in 25 years time) will be picking over the corpse of Russia like squabbling eagles over a dead elk.

Quite frankly, Britain is more likely to collapse than Russia

I hope your likelihoods don't inform your betting.

Given that Britain came within a large whisker of collapsing in 2014 - via Scottosh indy (which will return, one day) - then it's not like I am predicting something outlandish

Go listen to that David Betz podcast I linked yesterday

Ah that guy. You might also want to read his article about how Hungary is great and why Britain should not support the‘ stupid’ Ukraine war. He’s so balanced.

Yes, here's his opinion of the Ukraine war. Be a good centrist dad, and point out the bit that is insane -

"Now focusing on the Russo–Ukrainian conflict, it started a little more than two years ago. Was there any part of it in which it looked like it wasn’t going to be a stupid war?"


Betz: "No. It is paradigmatically stupid: unnecessary and unwinnable.

Moreover, it seems now obvious that the decision on the part of the West to pursue the war in the way that it has done was on the basis of a series of very flawed, even hubristic, assumptions, the primary one being that Russia was nowhere as economically strong and militarily capable as it has turned out to be."

"Can we label this war as ‘stupid’ even from a Ukrainian perspective?"

Betz: "From the Ukrainian perspective, it is a different story. But speaking from a Western perspective, with respect to the Western involvement in the Russo-Ukraine war, using Ukraine as its proxy, as essentially a meat puppet, it is a stupid war. Ukraine has been used very cynically, been ‘led up the garden path’ to use an English cliché. That’s what I’m what I’m talking about. I do think the Ukrainians are in a horrible position of having very limited, very limited choices. But they’ve been encouraged to do the stupid thing.

"They’ve been encouraged to effectively take actions which will probably result in the collapse of their country and the deaths of many hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians. It’s a country that has had something about a third to half of its population displaced abroad. Who knows if they will move back and of course, many, many thousands of their soldiers have been killed. I’m speaking primarily from the point of view of Western involvement. When it comes down to it, Ukrainians have been very badly used by the West, which will ultimately abandon them. "

https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/interview/hungary_-stupid-wars_west-russia-ukraine_peace_david-betz_interview/

I hear on the news that the EU is going to free up $800bn to rearm. SKS is talking about "boots on the ground."

Seems overkill to oppose Russia which is set to collapse any minute now according to PB war-watchers.

I don't think there are many on here or elsewhere that think Russia is about to collapse, though definition of what that may mean is likely to vary. Very few people predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, so it is possible, even if unlikely.

I myself, through having a personal connection with Ukraine, pray for the day when Putin dies or is overthrown, though what replaces him is almost as frightening. What is essential IMO, is that Russia must not be allowed to think that they have won. Their once assumed to be mighty military has been almost thoroughly humiliated by a much smaller one.

They will no doubt try to learn from this and rearm. We need to form a new alliance of democratic powers and release the US from what is clearly too big a burden for them, the grown-up burden of leadership. They can be reinvited to such a club if they return to being a beacon of hope and freedom such as they used to be. I also pray for that day.

*Raises hand* - I'm tentatively predicting the collapse of Russia, within 20 years or so. But there's a lot can happen between now and then. Very broadly, we are much better off if we are in a position to contain and shape the Russian collapse than if we are not. And importantly, the fewer people Russia is able to kill and the less of the world economy it is able to control between now and then, the better.

Russia is currently, clearly, a major threat to Ukraine, and if it is able to conclude its war in Ukraine favourably, it will be a major threat to our allies in Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia. This strikes me as a bad outcome and I do not understand the view of those who are indifferent to it.

However, while there are good and bad outcomes for what remains of the west, there are no good outcomes for Russia. If it loses, it has lost millions of people and most of its cash reserves for nothing and its people are likely to be a bit cross. If it wins, it has expanded its empire, but a significant share of its population will be sullen and resentful. History suggests this is more likely to be an expensive burden for it than a benefit.

FWIW, my prediction is that ... after this lot ... we are likely to have a new cold war with an iron curtain along wherever the final ceasefire / armistice line turns out to be.

I have no idea when Russia will collapse ... last time it took 30-45 years, depending how the start is dated.

One (not very likely, but more charitable than the obvious) theory about Mr Trump's actions is that he is concerned about the consequences of a complete Russian collapse in terms of China getting fuller Pacific access and a big chunk of Russia than he is about the consequences of collapsing Ukraine and handing it over to be dismembered.

From a USA Govt realpolitikal view, there is some logic to it.

Yes, I've thought along those lines. If and when Russia does collapse, who picks up the pieces? One way of making sure it's not China is by doing what Putin is now.
Possibly in 25 years time, the superpowers of the day (USA? China? Europe? None of them are by any means certain to still be powers in 25 years time) will be picking over the corpse of Russia like squabbling eagles over a dead elk.

Quite frankly, Britain is more likely to collapse than Russia

I hope your likelihoods don't inform your betting.

Given that Britain came within a large whisker of collapsing in 2014 - via Scottosh indy (which will return, one day) - then it's not like I am predicting something outlandish

Go listen to that David Betz podcast I linked yesterday

Ah that guy. You might also want to read his article about how Hungary is great and why Britain should not support the‘ stupid’ Ukraine war. He’s so balanced.

Yes, here's his opinion of the Ukraine war. Be a good centrist dad, and point out the bit that is insane -

"Now focusing on the Russo–Ukrainian conflict, it started a little more than two years ago. Was there any part of it in which it looked like it wasn’t going to be a stupid war?"


Betz: "No. It is paradigmatically stupid: unnecessary and unwinnable.

Moreover, it seems now obvious that the decision on the part of the West to pursue the war in the way that it has done was on the basis of a series of very flawed, even hubristic, assumptions, the primary one being that Russia was nowhere as economically strong and militarily capable as it has turned out to be."

"Can we label this war as ‘stupid’ even from a Ukrainian perspective?"

Betz: "From the Ukrainian perspective, it is a different story. But speaking from a Western perspective, with respect to the Western involvement in the Russo-Ukraine war, using Ukraine as its proxy, as essentially a meat puppet, it is a stupid war. Ukraine has been used very cynically, been ‘led up the garden path’ to use an English cliché. That’s what I’m what I’m talking about. I do think the Ukrainians are in a horrible position of having very limited, very limited choices. But they’ve been encouraged to do the stupid thing.

"They’ve been encouraged to effectively take actions which will probably result in the collapse of their country and the deaths of many hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians. It’s a country that has had something about a third to half of its population displaced abroad. Who knows if they will move back and of course, many, many thousands of their soldiers have been killed. I’m speaking primarily from the point of view of Western involvement. When it comes down to it, Ukrainians have been very badly used by the West, which will ultimately abandon them. "

https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/interview/hungary_-stupid-wars_west-russia-ukraine_peace_david-betz_interview/