Best Of
Re: Weekend at Donnie’s – politicalbetting.com
I don't think most people reflexively dislike Trump. No, they dislike Trump based on his actions and words, on his selling out of Ukraine, on his deranged economic theories, on his multiple reliably attested cases of sexual assault, on his habitual law-breaking, on how he used his charity to enrich himself, and many, many other examples. It's a considered dislike of Trump. An evidence-based disdain.Unheard article on Trump and architectureThose who reflexively dislike Trump will all now be writing opinion pieces on how traditional-looking buildings are horrible, and how modernist glass-and-concrete building is a sign of a wonderful future.
https://unherd.com/newsroom/trump-will-make-penn-station-beautiful-again/
Re: Weekend at Donnie’s – politicalbetting.com
Quarter of schools in England lack a physics teacher
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/sep/02/quarter-schools-england-lack-physics-teacher
That is because most of them are on here.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/sep/02/quarter-schools-england-lack-physics-teacher
That is because most of them are on here.
Re: Is Kemi the new IDS? – politicalbetting.com
I did read today that Jenrick's constituency of Newark is actually an anagram.Like IDS' statement he was educated at the University of Perugia, Badenoch's statement she was educated at Stanford if not entirely true won't inspire confidence in her with Tory MPs.She’s finished. She’s not going to get any better. She’ll probably get worse as she sinks below the waves and panics
However it is her party's poll rating that will be the biggest factor and her performance at PMQs, which like IDS is not magnificent.
She is shifting to the right, promising Milei style spending cuts, scrapping net zero by 2050 and withdrawal from the ECHR. If that still does not win back voters from Reform then expect her to be removed after likely poor local elections next Spring. Cleverly would likely be her replacement to try and hold to Sunak 2024 vote
Cleverly is a suicide note. It’s saying “yes we’re crap and irrelevant but please give us 13% of the vote so we can be like the Lib Dem’s”. Who votes for this centrist rubbish? No one. Or, about 13% of voters. Which will reduce you to about 30 MPs and that’s the end of you
Your only hope is Jenrick or Lam. Someone stridently right wing but with the heft of “a sensible Tory when it comes to economics”. That’s what may swing it your way from reform. People want populist hard right policies on migration and the rest but they don’t trust Reform on economics
There is still time for you to save yourselves. Undeservedly
DavidL
10
Re: Is Kemi the new IDS? – politicalbetting.com
Though there's a very plausible mechanism here; anything that breaks the "I eat too much because I'm depressed" > "I'm depressed because I'm obese" feedback loop is likely to have pretty strong positive MH effects.This is a notable result from an observational study of those on the new obesity drugs.I'm always slightly sceptical of these kind of results, because all too often people who are depressed come off their meds, and therefore are not included in the numbers.
GLP-1 receptor agonists will transform mental health over the next five years:
» Suicide: 58% reduction
» Depression: 37% reduction
» Substance use disorder: 42% reduction
n=174,000 obese adults who initiated GLP-1RAs in a target trial emulation published yesterday.
https://x.com/therealRYC/status/1962213801635569738
Re: Is Kemi the new IDS? – politicalbetting.com
On more important matters our 30 year gilt rates reach a 27 year high of 5.64% today. The consequences for Reeves' budget are horrendous as, of course, they are for our future wellbeing. We are simply becoming a worse and worse risk. We have incompetent and delusional leadership which is incapable of delivering the most pitiful cuts by a party that are frankly insane as well as stupid.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
It is a race to the bottom with France. Which country will crash first? France basically doesn't have a government. They do not have the ability to cut their deficit just as we do not. Their borrowing as a share of GDP exceeds even ours. Both countries are in terrible trouble. One pretends to have a government. Both have electorates who are capable of believing 6 impossible things before breakfast.
DavidL
8
Re: Is Kemi the new IDS? – politicalbetting.com
For Trump's 'death of Stalin' weekend fans:It can't be brain surgery. I mean, they would go in through his arse for that.
Christopher Webb
@cwebbonline
Today’s press pool photo shows Trump leaving the White House this morning.
I enhanced the image. And seriously, can an expert explain what the hell is happening to his forehead? Right above his nose and right brow.
https://x.com/cwebbonline/status/1962543250000200003
ydoethur
5
Re: Is Kemi the new IDS? – politicalbetting.com
Let me check my ethics meter.You surely wouldn't want to profit financially from Donald Trump’s misfortune?You can still get 8/1 on him leaving office this yearHmmm, that's almost tempting.
Nope, not a twitch.
Re: They Change Their Sky, Not Their Soul – politicalbetting.com
I don't think that we can ethically say that because we happen to be further from (e.g.) Afghanistan than (e.g.) France, all Afghani refugees should go to France. In practice, most refugees already end up in countries close to where they started - the boats stand out as the obvious exception, but it is an exception.If you arrive here from France, you are not fleeing persecution.Ultimately this is the issue for many, many people. Legally the applicant does not have to claim asylum in the first safe country. Morally people in this country think that they should.
So either piss off somewhere else, or live destitute on the street. Your choice.
If you are being attacked in your home and you flee, where do you go for help? The closest door or the one with the nicest furniture?
Because those in France are asylum shopping, to many it diminishes the strength of the claim.
Now PB'ers will no doubt now reel off a list of things why this post is wrong (factually, morally, legally) but to the person on the Clapham omnibus this is what they think. And its why my next door neighbour, unprovoked, told me he was listening to Farage "because he's right".
Rather, we should announce stricter criteria, probably including some connection with Britain (language, relatives) but allow applications to the nearest British Embassy. Having relaxed criteria but applying them only to people who cross the Channel invites the boats issue.
Re: They Change Their Sky, Not Their Soul – politicalbetting.com
No, trying to go slowly.Was he Russian?I just got a fucking parking ticket from the fucking Faroe Islands. This has to be a record. How do you even do that? The whole place is a desolate lava scape shrouded in ice. It’s like getting caught speeding on NeptuneThe captain of our cruise ship got one as well in the Faroes when he accidentally dropped his anchor on some undersea cables !!!
Re: They Change Their Sky, Not Their Soul – politicalbetting.com
As I've said, I think we all agree that we want no boats and no asylum hotels. That's government policy. That has widespread support.Indeed but again you miss the point that this is way beyond these agitators and is becoming the view of many of the population that the whole issue is unfair and has to be stoppedIt is a serious issue, yes. We agree on wanting to reduce the numbers coming over on boats and reduce the numbers staying in asylum hotels. However, those organising the hotel protests are objectively far right and racist. Those in the Epping Forest protests include, "Eddy Butler, a former British National Party (BNP) organiser previously linked to a violent neo-Nazi group; Callum Barker, an activist for the fascist Homeland Party; Toni Collins (AKA Ginger Toni), a key figure in the circle surrounding Tommy Robinson; Lance Wright, involved in the neo-Nazi music network Blood & Honour; former Combat 18 activist Phil Curson; and activists associated with the anti-Muslim group Britain First." See https://hopenothate.org.uk/2025/07/18/violence-at-the-bell-hotel-far-right-footprints-in-epping-forest/There are extremes on both the right and the left but on the question of the boats and asylum hotels, it is unhelpful to brand those protesting and objecting as far right and racist when this is a view shared across many in the population and of course Starmer and Cooper would not be talking about deportation and even reclusing parts of the ECHR if they did not know this is a serious issue for themYes, immigration has to be controlled (and it largely is). I think nearly everyone wants the boats to stop. It is government policy to get rid of migrant hotels. It is not far right or racist to want these things.I do not accept your generalisation that conservatives dont want genuine asylum seekers and do not forget it was the conservatives who offered sanctuary to Ukranians and those from Hong KongThe illegal immigrants who are trying to claim false asylum are to blame for any genuine asylum seekers being poorly treated. The temptation to put it on the public, who are rightly concerned about tens of thousands of chancers slipping into their society, should be resisted.I’m afraid the conversation has moved on . Reform and the Tories don’t want even genuine asylum seekers. If you’re non white and here legally you’re likely get more abuse as the atmosphere becomes even more toxic .
I doubt many people are against genuine refugees being given a home and integrated into British life, but what we are actually getting is thousands of young men with no real claim to be here, making Britain resemble the third world they came from
Immigration into the UK has to be controlled, and it is not helpful for some to label those wanting the boats and migrants hotels to be stopped as far right and racist, because this has spread way beyond the far right to many in the population who just want fairness
Everyone, no matter their ethnicity, living here are integral to our community and if someone can stop the boats this issue will lanced
However, clearly some of the people protesting outside hotels and some of the people posting here are more generally anti-immigrant and want, in the words of one poster, more white babies.
Both conservative and labour governments have singularity failed to address the problem which is spinning out of control
And the public dont just want the boats reduced, they want them stopped altogether
Yes, you're right that past governments have done badly at delivering on this. It was worst under Johnson, but hotel numbers fell under Sunak and have fallen further under Starmer. Those coming over on boats has gone up and done and has proven harder to stop, but criminal action against people smugglers is up. The first deportations under the new deal with France start soon. I hope these will be successful in reducing boat numbers.
Yes, we want boats stopped altogether, but the way to do that is to reduce the current numbers. The public want a solution, but I don't think the public want to give up traditional British values to get a solution immediately as long as we're moving in the right direction.
In the mean time, we shouldn't ignore the far right agitators who are bringing disorder to our streets. We shouldn't pretend that Eddy Butler and Ginger Toni and Tommy Robinson have legitimate concerns. We shouldn't let people legally in Britain be terrorised in parks because they have brown skin.



