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I’m back in hospital

On my second day back at work on Thursday I got a pain in my ribs, but not on the side that I broke them three months ago. I managed the pain with ibuprofen and paracetamol, and managed to get through all four days ending yesterday. I imagined the pain was just a bad side strain

This morning the pain was ten times worse. My painkillers made no difference and breathing more than the shortest shallowest breath was agony. I called my Dad who drove me straight to Great Western Hospital in Swindon. The ECG, X-ray and CT scan seemed to indicate that the pain was just a bad strain, not heart or lung problems, and they were set to give me loads of morphine and send me home to take a week off

Then the blood test results came in. Apparently some inflammation measure and my white blood cell count were both worryingly high. So they’ve insisted I stay overnight so they can pump me full of antibiotics, because it might be sepsis

Unfortunately fourteen hours into my visit they still haven’t found a bed for me

Get well soon.

Selling us down the river is not an exaggeration.

So basically, translating from Kremlin-speak into human language:

Putin wants to be given what he has failed to conquer in 11 years (including nearly 4 years of full-scale war) -- and in return, he’ll promise not to conquer what he’s already written into his constitution as part of Russia, but has also failed to capture after almost 4 years of all-out war.

And this, apparently, is only the condition for a “ceasefire.”

After that, to reach a “peace treaty” and an “ultimate resolution of the Ukrainian question,” Ukraine would need to satisfy his “root causes of the crisis” demands: disarmament and dismantling of its defense forces, no NATO membership, replacing the legitimate Ukrainian government in Kyiv with a pro-Russian puppet one, banning all military aid, and abandoning further reforms, national revival, and alignment with the West...
https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1979873368523370734

That would be a suicide note.

And yet. It is less than he was asking for at Alaska. He is responding to the pressure of the attacks on the oil refineries.

If we can at least get Trump to keep the existing sanctions in place, then there's potential for Putin to be forced into a genuine negotiation.

It’s taking time but Putin is slowly moving his long list of demands, as almost every day another Russian oil refinery or storage facility goes up in smoke. At some point he’ll need to negotiate in good faith, although there’s little sign of it so far.

Meanwhile, the Russian autumn offensive has gone nowhere at the cost of many men and materiel, and the reality of war is now obvious to ordinary Russians in the form of queuing and rationing of petrol, which has gone up by 50% in recent weeks. The protest earlier in the week in St. Petersberg was also good to see.

The frustration in the frontline states when Trump rowed back on the Tomahawks was very obvious. Thing is, the Ukrainians have already split open Russian air defences and its getting worse for Russia by the day. Putin pulled out all the stops to get Trump to change course, which is a tribute to the pressure that Russia is now under. However, across the US the political climate has turned positive for the Ukrainians- Putin keeps playing Trump and Hegseth, but the voters don't like it, so pretty soon Trump will be between a rock and a hard place.

In Tallinn we are pretty weary- I got a question from the foreign office of a country I am close to asking if it was safe to travel in Estonia- which of course it is, but counteracting Russian threats and propaganda is a full time job. The Saatse "boot" (a 1km access road across Russian territory) has just been closed and a by pass road is being constructed in double quick time so that the Estonians can close the fence. Now the details of the air incursion have been released, it seems that the Russians delayed leaving, even after they were intercepted by the Italians- hence the loud discussion in NATO about the rules of engagement. At least now, the Finns will be able to intercept, providing that the Amari air police squadron have the Finnish planes in the friendly list. Defences are being updated, the "drone wall", mined death strip, and all, but investment is low and the Estonian economy is under pressure- the current government is likely going to get a kicking in the local elections announced later tonight.

Putin is being badly hurt, and yet is still trying to go all in, especially with the draft being extended to Moscow and St Petersburg, but it is all beginning to look a bit Black Knight- massive casualties, growing shortages of equipment, and the mincing machine spitting out thousands of dead Russians every week. So Trump's pathetic shilly-shallying is getting pretty short shrift and more military aid to Kyiv will be announced in the coming days.

Estonians know whose side they are on even if Trump doesn't.

Kruger delivers.

Reform are getting some thinkers behind them.

Keith Joseph of 2030s?



Zia Yusuf

@ZiaYusufUK

I’m delighted to welcome James Orr to Reform UK.

James is a brilliant academic, theologian, thinker.

He has been a bastion of common sense and patriotism at Cambridge University.

He has become a close friend, and is someone who I believe will have a pivotal role in shaping the future of this country.

James is now a senior member of our team, a senior advisor to
@Nigel_Farage
and he will bring even more talented patriots to the Reform family.


https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1979886492706037993

I’m sure he was on the Today programme as a Reform “brain” well before Kruger defected.

Nigel Farage appoints right-wing anti-abortion theologian as Reform senior adviser
Professor James Orr is understood to be close to JD Vance and influential in Donald Trump’s administration with his right-wing views on abortion and immigration
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/farage-james-orr-rightwing-theologian-reform-b2848126.html

1 in 3 women in the UK have an abortion during their life. Who here wants to send 1 in 3 women to jail?

Unless that's an exceptionally wide definition of abortion, including things like the morning after pill, I find that figure hard to believe.

Might be true, but it just doesn't feel right.

There are about 600 000 births and 250 000 abortions each year in the UK.

To really get a handle on the scale of the problem, we need to also include all the male emissions where the primary purpose is not procreation. Each one of those sperm could have gone onto to be a human. When men casually abort their sperm, it is little different in effect to physically murdering babies.

There might be a song in that...

How much you need to earn, to net take home 10k a month

🇬🇧 United Kingdom £205,000

🇮🇹 Italy £198,000

🇫🇷 France £172,000

🇺🇸 United States £165,000

🇨🇳 China £161,000

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates (Dubai) £120,000

No wonder so many people are leaving the U.K. for Dubai
https://x.com/robprogressive/status/1979438750737346981

I've no idea if the figures are accurate or even representative. What struck me is the cluster of France, USA & China, and the higher 2-node cluster of Britain and Italy.

It's a load of bollocks.

In the various debunkings I've seen online, the most interesting was that the UK median worker pays less in tax than a US median earner. A bit of a mindfuck given the narrative around tax at the moment:

https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1979580442237170080

The UK in recent years has shifted to taxing the rich more and middle income earners less.

Yes. We have a remarkably progressive system of taxation of income, though coupled with a regressive tax on housing (council tax).

We have a very regressive system of taxation at the low end when you include UC taper and NICs.

Our tax rate is quite U bend shaped.

The real problem with our tax system is NI which warps the whole thing atrociously. There should be no reduced rate over £50K and it should apply to all income, earned and unearned even after retirement.

In the spirit of Peter the Punter, £11K a month after tax and 60 years old. I am one who would end up paying a huge amount more if my own suggestions were adopted.

How much you need to earn, to net take home 10k a month

🇬🇧 United Kingdom £205,000

🇮🇹 Italy £198,000

🇫🇷 France £172,000

🇺🇸 United States £165,000

🇨🇳 China £161,000

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates (Dubai) £120,000

No wonder so many people are leaving the U.K. for Dubai
https://x.com/robprogressive/status/1979438750737346981

I've no idea if the figures are accurate or even representative. What struck me is the cluster of France, USA & China, and the higher 2-node cluster of Britain and Italy.

It seems entirely unsourced and an exaggerated claim as far as I can see, which is the guys Twitter habit.

And he's leaving out minor factors such as UK healthcare and other costs being from taxes as compared to take home such as say the USA, never mind currency conversions.

I'd say it's not worth debunking time.

@Gabriel_Pogrund
EXCLUSIVE w/
@ManuMidolo


Nigel Farage’s partner is embroiled in a criminal fraud investigation

Lauren Ferrari ran a eurosceptic group, which, auditors said, spent up to €200K in public funds in breach of rules

“Serious irregularities” were passed to OLAF, EU anti-fraud office, which launched a parallel probe into a sister entity of which Farage was member

Now, it can be revealed, OLAF secretly passed the case involving the groups to law enforcement

A Brussels court will deliver a judgement on the case within weeks

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1979653548850721004

Sssshhh!

Some consistent problems for Farage- questionable funding. Doubt we'll see a GBN investigation on this any time soon. However NF has quite the form here, who knows if it were to come out, at an inconvenient moment...

Betting positions should be factoring in the What Happens If of Farage not being a political figure by the next election. It could be health, it could be his back story. 5 and 6 will both have chunky dossiers, accessible by the Government.

Anyone really think Tice is going to inherit his mantle? If not and by the election Reform is on 3% rather than 30%, the world of domestic politics is almost unfathomable this far out.

While Reform is Farage and Farage is Reform, have a look at how the LibDems organise. If they lost Ed Davey (and one can only hope) the LD ground game will continue as they are very effective locally. Reform's success or failure will depend on what kind of organisation they can build locally and all eyes should be on how they cope with the 11 Counties they have under their control. Don't write them off yet.

Half of LibDem MP's have seats in the top decile (IMD measure). They dominate that decile having as many MP's as the other parties put together. That's incredible targeting.

As we saw in the local elections in Surrey heath and Guildford last Thursday, once the Lib Dems get in, they quickly turn their electoral inroads into fortresses. The size of the majorities of Lib Dem MPs are on average substantially higher than the Tories- yes, bad as 2024 was for Sunak, it could have been so much worse. So its an asymmetrical fight on the Lib Dem/Conservative axis- easier for Lib Dems to take more Tory seats than Tories to recover seats from the Lib Dems, especially if RefUK are stealing more Tory votes.

I do not think that RefUK are going to come anywhere close to a majority, the combination of lurking scandal, tactical voting against them and the "capricious" nature of the leadership are head winds that they will find extremely difficult to overcome,. The vagaries of FPTP notwithstanding, I think it more likely that the Conservatives recover enough to cancel RefUK gains in most places outside Lincs and the former Red Wall. With the Lib Dems set to hold and maybe even make gains, the conundrum is what happens to Labour, and that is not yet clear- still years from the next election and many courses open to them. Then the return of twenty or even thirty SNP MPs also confuses the maths still more. The rise of the Greens is interesting too. The Corbyn chaos of "your" party will not, in my judgement be so significant- Corbyn will be almost 80 at the next GE.

I am not sure either punters or the politicos are factoring in this increasingly higher chance for No Overall Control at Westminster, and that could be very interesting. If the numbers for a Con/RefUk coalition do not add up, and Labour/Green/Nat do not add up, then with a big block of MPs behind him, Ed Davey might not just be Kingmaker, but maybe even King. So all those rushing in to back a 320 seat gain for RefUK should take note that such a surge has *never* happened, and the maths in each seat has to fall exactly right- and their record high poll has only been 35%. Winning a majority on a third of the vote is possible- Labour just did it- but is is a fluke when it happens. I don't think RefUK can do it, especially when we see the amateurish way they run councils and themselves.

More and more, therefore, I think the numbers speak to a hung Parliament, and one which will find it extremely difficult to construct a government. We may look back with nostalgia on this current time in British politics as the calm before the storm.