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Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
Starmer: Palestine protesters should ‘respect the grief of British Jews this week’Good tweet. He’s better at that sort of thing, and foreign policy, than the cheesier party political stuff.
‘Peaceful protest is a cornerstone of our democracy – and there is justified concern about the suffering in Gaza – but a minority have used these protests as a pretext for stoking antisemitic tropes’
https://www.thejc.com/opinion/starmer-palestine-protesters-should-respect-the-grief-of-british-jews-this-week-gouq2cg9
Notable that based on my Embassy chats last night the French seem to rate him a lot. The classic dilemma: the politician who’s more popular abroad than at home. Gorbachev, Blair, Macron, Varoufakis, probably Khamenei. As opposed to the politicians more popular at home than abroad (Trump, Hitler, Stalin, Erdogan, Xi, Modi, Lula, Putin…)
MelonB
5
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
OT. It so happens that my sister and her vast family are members of the Heaton Park synagogue in Prestwich where the killing took place. They were there yesterday but thankfully undamaged. Indeed the last time I visited that synagogue was for the wedding of one of her children about five years ago.
I'm really not interested in getting into this anti semitism discussion particularly when it is as full of ignorance as it so often is on here when the leading racists take the stage.
But how is it after the wanton killings of newsmen babies small children photo journalists doctors nurses and at least 60,000 non combatents we know no details whatsoever about the life stories of any of them yet we are told out of respect for the synagogue attack all demonstations against the Gazan genocide should stop. Just don't offend Jews?
Does Netanyahu answer for anything? He is a proven liar and a butcher yet not a word from the Board of Deputies against him except that trying to charge him with genocide is an outrage.
I'm really not interested in getting into this anti semitism discussion particularly when it is as full of ignorance as it so often is on here when the leading racists take the stage.
But how is it after the wanton killings of newsmen babies small children photo journalists doctors nurses and at least 60,000 non combatents we know no details whatsoever about the life stories of any of them yet we are told out of respect for the synagogue attack all demonstations against the Gazan genocide should stop. Just don't offend Jews?
Does Netanyahu answer for anything? He is a proven liar and a butcher yet not a word from the Board of Deputies against him except that trying to charge him with genocide is an outrage.
10
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
I was born in 1943.Dad was born in 1939. Remembers snippets of the war but not much. Served in the guards rather than national service then straight into Wiltshire Police for 30 years. Retired at 56 with a huge pay off (restructuring) and has now been retired as long as he served.Men, yes.I often think the sweet spot was someone born in the late 30s. That does presuppose that you didn’t suffer loss in the war, but you’d be generally too young to remember much of it. Teenager in the relative stability of the 50s. Still young enough to enjoy the 60s.Oh, I'm sure that's true.Reflections on the Bucket lady.This narrative from young rightwingers is becoming increasingly common. It misses out just how many people of thar generation enjoyed the 60s and 70s, like many relatives of mine, as a huge relief.
It must have been so strange being born British in the 1920s.
You are born into the global hegemon. An industrial juggernaut. The world's reserve currency. The largest empire ever known. The undisputed ruler of the waves.
And your entire adult life sees it all drift away.
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1974058116095373361
R3 had a recording of her performing in some Broadway musical. Decent contralto, if rather warbley.
But either way the culture shock must have been considerable.
Women perhaps not so much.
Pretty sweet spot.
I thoroughly enjoyed the sixties, married in 1968. Three kids and five grandsons all living within walking distance of me.
Fired in 1995 (long story) with big pay off and large fully inflation protected pension.
I'm extremely lucky. In good health. Skiing next year.
And I'm still alive to see the fantastic AI revolution.
What a time to be alive! I think I hit the sweet spot.
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
Head of the Signal app threatens to withdraw from EuropeFor “allow”, read “forced”
The head of the Signal app has criticized plans in the EU that would allow messengers to have backdoors to enable automatic searches for criminal content. Signal is considered one of the most secure messengers.
"If we were faced with the choice of either undermining the integrity of our encryption and our data protection guarantees or leaving Europe, we would unfortunately make the decision to leave the market,"
Signal are one of the few outfits that I have respect for in this space.
Their code is open sourced - both client and server. You can download the code and build it yourself. A number of people do.
They really work to make their service secure. They are owned by a non-profit (aka charity) that specifically is constituted to forbid selling data.
It’s notable that taking a fork of their code is nearly the standard for building a custom, ultra secure messaging app. In fact I’ve suggested in the past the U.K. government should do exactly that.
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
Storm Amy is ex-Hurricane HumbertoThere's something I've been meaning to follow up on about a jet transition in September that was mentioned in a paper that was defining seasons objectively in the Mediterranean.We had the very heavy (even for us) rain. The the rain stopped and the wind died down. Just as I thought it wasn’t going to be as bad as forecast, the wind rose again and it’s now blowing a hoolie. It nearly always seems to be the first weekend of October that brings the first serious storm of the autumn. Perhaps the meteorologists can confirm.It looks like quite a 'hoolie' is about to arrive in the North of Scotland so I wish everyone to stay safe including all our family membersGetting pretty wild here in south west
Indeed I have just received an alert from our energy supplier and that we are apparently on their vulnerable list
Storm Amy is ex-Hurricane Humberto, and so I think there's definitely something about the interaction between the hurricane season, the start of the Polar night, and the enduring heat in the oceans that lays the groundwork for strong mid-latitude storms in October.
Even storms are Trans now?
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
If you can successfully complete all the forms, your mental capacity is too good to justify being paid PiP. Sorted.It doesn't. A government employee is always involved. PIP assessments are detailed at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/personal-independence-payment-assessment-guide-for-assessment-providers/pip-assessment-guide-part-1-the-assessment-processI'm suggesting that, when someone applies for PIP, a doctor working for the government should assess them. Waving a note from a rent-a-quack shouldn't suffice.Are you suggesting we ban private medicine as an wholly unscientific scam?You can, however, hire a private doctor/psychologist who will write pretty much what they are asked to after an online consultation. Which amounts to the same thing.You can’t claim benefits merely on a self diagnosis.It is driven by free largesse, amazed to hear you can self diagnos and claim benefits. Guy on LBC the other day , earning 65K a year and got 54K grant by self diagnosing an illness. magic money tree in place here right enough.I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claimsBen ZarankoThe three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
@BenZaranko
There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.
Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.
https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488
Or only for people on benefits who don't deserve it?
IanB2
8
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
I am afraid this is naive. Anti-Semitism would not have disappeared. It has been around for ever and it simply mutates. First it was religious then racial. Now it is based on nationalism and anti-colonialism.I'm abroad at the moment so don't have any impression of the marches. I absolutely agree that anti-semitism is evil, and also baffling, like being against anyone over 6 feet tall or some other irrelevant issue. However, it is almost as impossible to defend Netanyahu's policies and "anti-Zionist" is a convenient a shorthand for saying that as any that I can think of. I'm Jewish by descent and traditionally pro-Israel, but I see nothing defensible in their current policies. I describe that as being anti-Zionist but not anti-semitic (which would inter alia mean being against myself). In fact, I think that Netanyhu's policies are keeping anti-semitism alive (precisely through the delibarely conflation of Israeli policies with Jewishness), when it would otherwise have disappeared along with flat-earthism and other weird beliefs. I'm not wedded to the wording but we shoulldn't get hung up on that - a rational position is to be opposed to Israeli policy while regarding anti-semitism with contempt.Some discussion last night on protests not being illegal - even if in appalling bad taste.Excellent comment @Cyclefree - and yes, absolutely, many of the protestors last night weren’t just lamenting Gaza they were gleefully exulting in the Manchester attacks. The triumphant flag waving, the horrific chanting, the body language of Joy - and then the violence. Repulsive
Well in the one in London the protesters were shouting an Arab slogan demanding the beheading of Jews. That is not protest. Nor is it free speech. It is incitement to violence which has always been an exception to free speech. Those protestors should be arrested and charged and protests which go round chanting slogans calling for the death of Jews should be banned.
As for the poster last night saying that Netanyahu was responsible for the rise in anti-semitism, this is so disgusting on so many levels. First, because it blames Jews for what evil people do to them. Second because it reveals the lie at the heart of so many of these protests - that they are only against Zionism, only against what Israel does, not against Jews generally. But this is not true is it. The use of the word Zionism has been a convenient way to launder anti-semitism into the discourse here and to justify attacks on and vile language against Jews here. That is why there has been a rise in anti-semitism here.
There are genuine and well-founded serious criticisms to be made of Israel's conduct, much of it made by Israelis themselves. But much of it is not made in any sort of good faith, much of it is barely disguised anti-semitism or is used to justify hatred of Jews outside Israel. The use of the word "Zionist" is utterly disingenuous and is similar to those on the Tommy Robinson side who say that they anti- Islam when in reality we know and they know we know that they use "Islam" and "Muslim" as a figleaf to mean "blacks" or "Pakistanis" etc. Let's not fool ourselves: exactly the same is happening with the use of the word "Zionist" and it is long past the time for these protesters to be called out on this.
I note also that one of the protests was in Liverpool Street Station - site of the memorial to the Kindertransport. The people protesting last night struck me as the sort of people who in another era were those who made the Kindertransport necessary.
You’re wrong on one minor point tho. Tommy Robinson is not anti-black, if you look at his background there is no evidence for this, quite the contrary. He is a thug and a demagogue and wildly anti-Muslim - that’s his thing
However I’m sure plenty of his nastier followers are racist in the way you say
Israel is central to Jewish belief and culture. When people attack this they are attacking the very essence of Judaism and the Jewish people. People are using anti-Zionism as a way of smuggling their anti-semitism into the public domain and making it easy to be open about it (respectable even) while pretending you are not responsible for the resulting appalling anti-Jewish hatred. They should not be allowed to get away with it. They have created the swamp in which yesterday's terrorist murderer thrives.
When people smear faeces on the doors of Jewish synagogues, when they pour urine on the doors of a Jewish nursery, when they squirt water at Orthodox Jews quietly walking the streets, when they shout for Jews to be beheaded, when they attack a kosher bakery, when they drive down the streets saying that Jewish women should be raped - all of which have happened in this country with the authorities doing nothing - they are not expressing their anti-Zionism and we should not let them get away with their nasty lies. This is hatred, pure and simple. It is anti-Semitic hatred. The only people responsible are those who do it. Not Jews. not Netanyahu. Not the men killed. Not the children scared of walking down the streets with their school blazers or skull caps.
We should never ever confuse good faith and legitimate criticism of a country's policies with bad faith racist hatred. And those marches in London and much of the commentary by these so-called anti-Zionists have long ago crossed that line. It is despicable and revolting. This country has done far too little to confront this and to call this hatred out for what it is. It shames this country.
Re: Bridget over troubled water for Phillipson – politicalbetting.com
Eventual Islamic takeover?Every sane patriotic Brit - and that is surely most of us - has to vote Reform, now. It’s the only choice. It’s that or the abyssIt strikes me that a Reform govt could bring about some kind of civil war… his opponents hate Farage so much, and those to the right of him are clucking for aggro… he must have a good chance of being assassinated if he becomes PM. But the alternative is the continued slow destruction of what we thought of as England, and eventual Islamic takeover.
Are you for real?
Why wouldn’t it happen? The Islamic population is growing faster than any other, they are already winning seats in parliament on a sectarian manifesto. The trend is there, they are motivated, only a fool would ignore or dismiss it.Eventual Islamic takeover?Every sane patriotic Brit - and that is surely most of us - has to vote Reform, now. It’s the only choice. It’s that or the abyssIt strikes me that a Reform govt could bring about some kind of civil war… his opponents hate Farage so much, and those to the right of him are clucking for aggro… he must have a good chance of being assassinated if he becomes PM. But the alternative is the continued slow destruction of what we thought of as England, and eventual Islamic takeover.
You utter loon.
isam
5
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
Antifa is simply an abbreviation of anti-facist.That's anti-fascism. It's not necessarily synonymous with the US groups' aims.There's a long British tradition of Antifa, from Cable St on to the "Rock against Racism" and "Anti-Nazi League" of my youth.Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.Good morning and thank you
"Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.
What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.
A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.
This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.
It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
(Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
Not to mention the boatloads of armed and dangerous Antifa who crossed the channel without passports in June 1944, albeit leaving rather than entering Britain.
You can have anti-fascists on the centre-right as well, and I fear the hard-left Communists are no better than fascists.
Sure Trump and his goons misuse the word, just as they do with "Woke", but we shouldn't normalise that misuse.
Foxy
5
Re: Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com
I'm abroad at the moment so don't have any impression of the marches. I absolutely agree that anti-semitism is evil, and also baffling, like being against anyone over 6 feet tall or some other irrelevant issue. However, it is almost as impossible to defend Netanyahu's policies and "anti-Zionist" is a convenient a shorthand for saying that as any that I can think of. I'm Jewish by descent and traditionally pro-Israel, but I see nothing defensible in their current policies. I describe that as being anti-Zionist but not anti-semitic (which would inter alia mean being against myself). In fact, I think that Netanyhu's policies are keeping anti-semitism alive (precisely through the delibarely conflation of Israeli policies with Jewishness), when it would otherwise have disappeared along with flat-earthism and other weird beliefs. I'm not wedded to the wording but we shoulldn't get hung up on that - a rational position is to be opposed to Israeli policy while regarding anti-semitism with contempt.Some discussion last night on protests not being illegal - even if in appalling bad taste.Excellent comment @Cyclefree - and yes, absolutely, many of the protestors last night weren’t just lamenting Gaza they were gleefully exulting in the Manchester attacks. The triumphant flag waving, the horrific chanting, the body language of Joy - and then the violence. Repulsive
Well in the one in London the protesters were shouting an Arab slogan demanding the beheading of Jews. That is not protest. Nor is it free speech. It is incitement to violence which has always been an exception to free speech. Those protestors should be arrested and charged and protests which go round chanting slogans calling for the death of Jews should be banned.
As for the poster last night saying that Netanyahu was responsible for the rise in anti-semitism, this is so disgusting on so many levels. First, because it blames Jews for what evil people do to them. Second because it reveals the lie at the heart of so many of these protests - that they are only against Zionism, only against what Israel does, not against Jews generally. But this is not true is it. The use of the word Zionism has been a convenient way to launder anti-semitism into the discourse here and to justify attacks on and vile language against Jews here. That is why there has been a rise in anti-semitism here.
There are genuine and well-founded serious criticisms to be made of Israel's conduct, much of it made by Israelis themselves. But much of it is not made in any sort of good faith, much of it is barely disguised anti-semitism or is used to justify hatred of Jews outside Israel. The use of the word "Zionist" is utterly disingenuous and is similar to those on the Tommy Robinson side who say that they anti- Islam when in reality we know and they know we know that they use "Islam" and "Muslim" as a figleaf to mean "blacks" or "Pakistanis" etc. Let's not fool ourselves: exactly the same is happening with the use of the word "Zionist" and it is long past the time for these protesters to be called out on this.
I note also that one of the protests was in Liverpool Street Station - site of the memorial to the Kindertransport. The people protesting last night struck me as the sort of people who in another era were those who made the Kindertransport necessary.
You’re wrong on one minor point tho. Tommy Robinson is not anti-black, if you look at his background there is no evidence for this, quite the contrary. He is a thug and a demagogue and wildly anti-Muslim - that’s his thing
However I’m sure plenty of his nastier followers are racist in the way you say



