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Re: Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling – politicalbetting.com
That reminds me of a story I read recently.The Uber drivers in LA bully the Waymo cars mercilessly. They know they will always brake / reverse / etc.The Waymo software needs a BMW driver upgrade.
A Day in the Diary of a BMW Driver
"The other day I was cruising along as usual coming out of Inverness onto my A9 , which was very busy with inferior cars. First off, I couldn't believe that the volume of traffic DIDN'T slow down for me AT ALL as I came off the slip road! I had to squeeze into a barely big enough gap between two cars in order to get onto my Dual carriageway!
The driver of the car behind me did realise his mistake though and honked an apology to me with a long blast of his horn. Unbelievably, I had to do the same again before I could get to the BMW lane. Anyway, once I was in the BMW lane and posing along at 110 mph enjoying the adulation that the inferior car drivers were giving me, I noticed an inferior car ahead of me which was not only in the BMW lane of my A9, but was driving at a ridiculous 70 mph! Naturally, I got within a foot or so of his rear bumper and flashed my headlights to remind him he shouldn't be in the BMW lane of my A9 and to get out of my way.
Of course, once he realised it was a BMW behind him, he did just that, but I could hardly believe it when he pulled straight back in behind me! He also tried to keep up with me and when he realised I would out-run him, he put on some blue lights in his front grill and urged me to get onto the hard shoulder so that he could congratulate me on my excellent car.
Needless to say, I was eager to oblige and when we had stopped, the man gave me a piece of paper confirming what I already knew - that my car goes fast! Apparently he wants everyone to know what a superior car I have, so I had to take my driver’s licence to a police station to be sent away to have some points put on! (They're not free points either - they're £20 each and I was only allowed 3.) But the man at the Police station said that because I drive a BMW, it won't be much longer before I earn the full 12 points, and then I won't even NEED a driving licence, so they will take it off me! See... now THAT'S the sort of respect you get when you own and drive a BMW! "
Re: Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling – politicalbetting.com
The Conservatives essentially accepted New Labour's socio-cultural consensus, and just wanted slightly lower taxes. Feather-bedding their core vote to stay in office did the rest.I have sympathy for Reform, combined with scepticism. It's hard to believe that a party can go from 5 MPs to 350, in one go, without electing some pretty awful people, and/or people who are utterly clueless. Such a result could end up doing great damage to the Right.Utter tripe. No doubt come from Gove, a bitter political failure who cannot conceive of anyone not as spineless as he was.That’s the consensus prediction at Knapper’s Gazette, interestinglyPerhaps.I agree, I was just querying that distinction twixt 4th andIs there some significant psychological barrier crossed when the Tories come fifth? Surely fourth would be bad enoughYes, right now some Tories have been able to argue that being third in the polls is due to Starmer being rubbish and boosting Reform, but ending up consistently fourth/fifth behind the Greens/Lib Dems will be a barrier crossed.
Anyway I love these polls. A plague on both their houses
5th
This feels like a death spiral now, for the Tories. As you say there’s a tipping point when they look terminally irrelevant and any vote for them is wasted. They are horribly close to that point, and it’s not obvious how they reverse the slide. Dumping poor Kemi is necessary - but not sufficient
Labour have different problems. Unlikely to go extinct but facing a defeat so bad they are out of power for 15 years
I am writing a piece which should go up later on this week which points out based on the MRPs/polls Reform are on course to win the election with a lower vote share/votes than Labour in 2024 (The YouGov MRP had them on 27%) and we saw how unpopular Labour became.
I reckon within a year of the next election Reform could be in the single digits and we end up with a very left wing party leading the polls such as the Greens.
Reform win, fuck it all up, and the NEXT government is far left
It is quite possible, especially as by then we may need UBI
We are in a hi-tech rehash of the 1930s
Speaking of which, a hideous ad banner has appeared which they graciously take off when you log in. It's very tacky.
I would far rather see Reform move to being official Opposition than government, next time.
Gove had his chance. The things that annoyed Conservatives about new Labour (woke, defence, justice, immigration), got worse on Gove's watch.
That explains 90% of their problems.
Re: Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling – politicalbetting.com
Just disband the party. It’s over. Nothing is forever. Soft dads like you can join the LDs - and improve their offering - and harder types can join Reform, giving them gravitasYup, we'll end up with a donors' strike, that'll end Kemi's leadership.And people don't like to be seen backing a loser.Is there some significant psychological barrier crossed when the Tories come fifth? Surely fourth would be bad enoughYes, right now some Tories have been able to argue that being third in the polls is due to Starmer being rubbish and boosting Reform, but ending up consistently fourth/fifth behind the Greens/Lib Dems will be a barrier crossed.
Anyway I love these polls. A plague on both their houses
I am almost regretting vote for her.
A fie on the parliamentary Tory Party for giving me a choice between Badenoch and Jenrick.
Win win
The next election should ideally be LDs versus Reform. That would be a good clear choice for the people. The two big parties need to go extinct now
Leon
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Re: Will this impact Reform’s chances in the Senedd? – politicalbetting.com
Yesterday, for my birthday, my daughter had managed to get a copy of my late dad winning an episode of 15-1. She had also got digitised some early videos of our family from 1997 at the time her sister was born. In these pictures was my wife. Very different hair and glasses. I was also there and roughly half the man I am now. One of us has aged spectacularly, actually looks much better and sexier now. The other needs to get back to the gym.
DavidL
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Re: Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling – politicalbetting.com
I'm not sure if HYUFD is reading PB at the moment, but just to say that I have lit a candle for you and your family during Sunday service.What a lovely thought
I remain shocked and sad about his news, and hope he and his wife take time to come to terms with their loss and find comfort in their Christian faith
Re: Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling – politicalbetting.com
I'm not sure if HYUFD is reading PB at the moment, but just to say that I have lit a candle for you and your family during Sunday service.
SandyRentool
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Re: Will this impact Reform’s chances in the Senedd? – politicalbetting.com
"I’m looking for a man who … has goals and ambition, is intelligent, trustworthy, a provider, supportive, considerate, kind, assertive, masculine, honest, faithful, intentional, has a healthy self-esteem and a sense of humour, loves to go out, and likes fitness. These basic qualities are hard to find these days,” she saidQuite the laundry list that I think not even 5% of the male population will meet. Calling them basic qualities is frankly absurd, they may be basic each in isolation but finding someone who has all of these is impossible, male or female. This is an unhealthy level of expectation.
Honestly very few of my male friends (including those married) would achieve all of these qualities.
MaxPB
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Re: Will this impact Reform’s chances in the Senedd? – politicalbetting.com
IME "what women want" from a long-term relationship is as varied as women, as I think that article shows. It can also change once they are in a settled relationship.It's from America, but I suspect true in other counties including the UK too, as a large part of why the fertility rate is dropping.Interesting. Apparently one the more attractive things about me is that I give off the sense that I would be perfectly happy and successful by myself. It's a bit of a meme but the best advice for single men is to get yourself into a place where you don't need a woman as a prop.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2025/sep/27/us-women-single-dating?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Mrs J wanted to continue her career, which really matters to her. She would be very unhappy not working. A female friend and ex-colleague of ours was the opposite: she was all to ready to chuck in her job to look after their kids full-time. Two different women, similar occupations, similar ages, with very different viewpoints.
Without wanting to be accused of mansplaining, my one piece of advice to men who want a long-term relationship with a woman is "Don't be an asshole." And that's advice I've started giving my son now he's starting to talk about relationships.
And you can exhibit strength without being an asshole. Too many men confuse the two...
Re: Will this impact Reform’s chances in the Senedd? – politicalbetting.com
It's Biden's Ryder Cup.You know Trump will take this well and calmly though?This just isn'tThe 2025 Ryder Cup is on course to be the biggest humiliation inflicted on America in America since we burned down the White House.cricketgolf....I reckon Shane Lowry would fill all the American pussies in if it came to it.
Nigelb
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