Best Of

In more concrete matters relating to Starmer's future we have just had our 11th consecutive month with manufacturing PMIs below 50, that is indicating a future contraction and the latest figure is one of the worst: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-factories-stumble-as-new-orders-fall-back-pmi-shows/ar-AA1LD3ZA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=68b69efe1dfd4e56a1a8495a30003596&ei=27

I may have mentioned our trade deficit from time to time in passing. This really isn't helping. Its time we had a government more focused on the day job.

The economy is only staying afloat because of services . The latest update to that is due out shortly .

Yes and to be fair that has largely been the case for 30 years or more. But what we are not seeing is any sign of investment in new production in the UK, any uplift in training, any growth in productivity, any facilitation of growth by removing planning hurdles or otherwise, any attempt to encourage entrepreneurial activity in the UK, it makes you despair. What we got instead was the increase in Employers NI and an above inflation increase in the minimum wage with inevitable consequences for the level of employment.

It just won't do. Our forthcoming budget needs to focus on growth (as Reeves herself recognised before the election). That means finding ways to boost investment through more generous allowances, encouraging training, not hammering Entrepreneurial Relief or Capital Gains or share based ISAs, looking at why London is struggling to compete in the IPO market, etc etc. I fear we are going to see the reverse as our Chancellor scrabbles around for a few billion more taxes to make her nonsensical targets and kick the can down the road for a few more months.

My new brainiac IQ 190 squillionaire friend, who was freaking out about the gilts market months ago (presciently) is now freaking out about gilts EVEN MORE

He says the government is “driving straight into a brick wall”. He thinks the present gilts “crisis” is maybe the markets reacting to Starmer’s “phase 2” speech which didn’t acknowledge the fiscal emergency at all

He says, as tax rises won’t work, borrowing can’t be done, and the government refuses to cut, we “may become Turkey or Argentina for a bit”

🫣

I am no brainiac, nor do I have an IQ of 190, nor, sadly, am I a squillionaire but this is kind of obvious. We are heading towards a fiscal crisis. It is not just that we need to borrow new money at penalty rates, we also have to roll over ever more debt taken out when interest rates were very, very low. 10 year gilts maturing just now were probably borrowed at less than 1%. To replace those borrowed funds we will be borrowing the same money at more than 5%. The cost of our debt is going to be rising for a long time, even if we manage to get current rates down. Every other category of spending is going to be squeezed by this.

Right, so what do we do? The "cut spending" brigade envisage that the sick and the poor are wasting the money so just take it off them. In reality they are sick and poor and when need remains and you cut the provision you spend more mopping up the various crises you create.

So we can't cut spending on the front line. We need to cut spending on everything else. How is it that we have an NHS where the budget goes up every year and front line provision shrinks? Its a bonfire burning our cash - and we can't afford to fuel it any more.

We set up a crisis team during Covid. Massive spike in patients, fewer resources, how do we do things. We need to do the same thing today. We simply cannot afford the vast bureaucracies and overlapping managers that we have in health and education. If that means that we have to make redundant the staff at NHS Trusts and Education Trusts then sobeit.

When I was at school every local authority (normally the county council) had a team of a dozen, maybe two dozen managers. A 1000 pupil secondary school had a head, a couple of deputies, a Secretary and a caretaker. That was your "non productive" staff, and even then the deputies and even the head taught classes.

Now we have oversight by Ofsted, we have multi school academy management teams on astronomical salaries (and there are far, far more of them than there were County Council LEAs). Each school has around a dozen non teaching managers/ administrators . The education budget is syphoned off to these people before a student writes their first essay. Do we need all these leeches or can we return to the old model?

New Green Party leader seems like a laugh

“These are totally unacceptable tweets... I think it was proportionate to arrest him"

Zack Polanski, Green Party Leader, on the arrest of comedy writer Graham Linehan at Heathrow airport on Monday.

#Newsnight

https://x.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1963021805196562467?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

That's a very articulate and intelligent response.

Starmer should be afraid, very afraid...

As the tweets were from April, why has it taken so long?

He’s been working in the US.

There’s suggestions that the Tweets in question were actually sent while he was in the US, in which case the question is what does the conduct of an Irishman in the US have anything to do with the British police in the first place, and can Americans visiting London expect the same treatment?
https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1962872272915431425

So, several months old, made furth of our jurisdiction and @Foxy thinks Polanski saying he should be arrested is a clever response? Am I keeping up?

One hopes he was being sarcastic

No, I was not.

Linehan was arrested for inciting violence as a hate crime. If we are to have such laws on the books then we should enforce them.

I don't think the law is fit in it's current form and should be revised. Incitement to violence should only be considered criminal if there is a realistic expectation of violence as a result.

As I understand it Linehan is a foreign national who was tweeting whilst outside the UK. I do not understand how the Public Order Act of 1986 is applicable to a non-British person using a non-British service whilst not in Britain. Regardless of what they said.

New Green Party leader seems like a laugh

“These are totally unacceptable tweets... I think it was proportionate to arrest him"

Zack Polanski, Green Party Leader, on the arrest of comedy writer Graham Linehan at Heathrow airport on Monday.

#Newsnight

https://x.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1963021805196562467?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

That's a very articulate and intelligent response.

Starmer should be afraid, very afraid...

As the tweets were from April, why has it taken so long?

He’s been working in the US.

There’s suggestions that the Tweets in question were actually sent while he was in the US, in which case the question is what does the conduct of an Irishman in the US have anything to do with the British police in the first place, and can Americans visiting London expect the same treatment?
https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1962872272915431425

So, several months old, made furth of our jurisdiction and @Foxy thinks Polanski saying he should be arrested is a clever response? Am I keeping up?

In more concrete matters relating to Starmer's future we have just had our 11th consecutive month with manufacturing PMIs below 50, that is indicating a future contraction and the latest figure is one of the worst: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-factories-stumble-as-new-orders-fall-back-pmi-shows/ar-AA1LD3ZA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=68b69efe1dfd4e56a1a8495a30003596&ei=27

I may have mentioned our trade deficit from time to time in passing. This really isn't helping. Its time we had a government more focused on the day job.

The economy is only staying afloat because of services . The latest update to that is due out shortly .

Yes and to be fair that has largely been the case for 30 years or more. But what we are not seeing is any sign of investment in new production in the UK, any uplift in training, any growth in productivity, any facilitation of growth by removing planning hurdles or otherwise, any attempt to encourage entrepreneurial activity in the UK, it makes you despair. What we got instead was the increase in Employers NI and an above inflation increase in the minimum wage with inevitable consequences for the level of employment.

It just won't do. Our forthcoming budget needs to focus on growth (as Reeves herself recognised before the election). That means finding ways to boost investment through more generous allowances, encouraging training, not hammering Entrepreneurial Relief or Capital Gains or share based ISAs, looking at why London is struggling to compete in the IPO market, etc etc. I fear we are going to see the reverse as our Chancellor scrabbles around for a few billion more taxes to make her nonsensical targets and kick the can down the road for a few more months.

My new brainiac IQ 190 squillionaire friend, who was freaking out about the gilts market months ago (presciently) is now freaking out about gilts EVEN MORE

He says the government is “driving straight into a brick wall”. He thinks the present gilts “crisis” is maybe the markets reacting to Starmer’s “phase 2” speech which didn’t acknowledge the fiscal emergency at all

He says, as tax rises won’t work, borrowing can’t be done, and the government refuses to cut, we “may become Turkey or Argentina for a bit”

🫣

I am no brainiac, nor do I have an IQ of 190, nor, sadly, am I a squillionaire but this is kind of obvious. We are heading towards a fiscal crisis. It is not just that we need to borrow new money at penalty rates, we also have to roll over ever more debt taken out when interest rates were very, very low. 10 year gilts maturing just now were probably borrowed at less than 1%. To replace those borrowed funds we will be borrowing the same money at more than 5%. The cost of our debt is going to be rising for a long time, even if we manage to get current rates down. Every other category of spending is going to be squeezed by this.

Right, so what do we do? The "cut spending" brigade envisage that the sick and the poor are wasting the money so just take it off them. In reality they are sick and poor and when need remains and you cut the provision you spend more mopping up the various crises you create.

So we can't cut spending on the front line. We need to cut spending on everything else. How is it that we have an NHS where the budget goes up every year and front line provision shrinks? Its a bonfire burning our cash - and we can't afford to fuel it any more.

We set up a crisis team during Covid. Massive spike in patients, fewer resources, how do we do things. We need to do the same thing today. We simply cannot afford the vast bureaucracies and overlapping managers that we have in health and education. If that means that we have to make redundant the staff at NHS Trusts and Education Trusts then sobeit.

Even the guy running a company that provides school transport for SEND kids has gone on record complaining of the complete madness & waste in the current system.

PIP payments appear to have gone from “I need money for transport because otherwise I can’t get to work” to ”I have ADHD and find using the bus a bit tricky & would like my own car”,

The NHS maternity service is spending more on compensating mothers & children for damage done to them due to lack of adequate staffing than it is on actually delivering maternity services.

We trapped many of the “sick and poor” in unemployment because we let large corporations argue that even jobs that paid less than minimum wage counted as “shortage professions” that deserved unlimited work visas. How are they going to get work when made to compete in that environment?

The legal profession has turned the Equality Acts into a tool to undermine market forces in the labour market, leading inevitably to the chaos in Birmingham & the further casualisation of labour as employers flatly refuse to take on employees who have been turned into future legal liabilities for the sin of paying different jobs different amounts of money in order to attract workers.

We’ve made it completely impossible to build anything at all, anywhere. Latest stupidity on this front is that the cheap rate for non-degradable landfill that can be used to fill old quarries (cement, soil etc) at £4/tonne is being removed & the standard rate of £136 / tonne is being applied across the board, adding something like ~£25k to the price of the average house & vastly increasing the costs of larger projects. But that’s a pinprick next to the new Building Regulations, which appear to have cut house-building in half from already pitiful levels & the marauding Environment Agency that believes spiders matter more than housing children.

I could (very easily) go on, but there is so much in this country that doesn’t require money spending on it - it needs saner review & regulation. Successive governments have made this situation worse and worse because every regulation has had a proponent who cares very much about it being implemented but the costs have been spread across all of us, so pushback has been difficult to organise. We have ended up with a diffuse rule by lawfare, where everyone has a very important job to do but in the aggregate their job is to prevent anything happening at all.

Add Anti-Money Laundering rules to your list.

As a Charitable Trustee they are the bane of my life. It makes opening and closing accounts and changing signatories a protracted pain in the arse.

It doesn't seem to touch the real money laundering industry, which goes from strength to strength on both High St and offshore financial world.

In more concrete matters relating to Starmer's future we have just had our 11th consecutive month with manufacturing PMIs below 50, that is indicating a future contraction and the latest figure is one of the worst: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-factories-stumble-as-new-orders-fall-back-pmi-shows/ar-AA1LD3ZA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=68b69efe1dfd4e56a1a8495a30003596&ei=27

I may have mentioned our trade deficit from time to time in passing. This really isn't helping. Its time we had a government more focused on the day job.

The economy is only staying afloat because of services . The latest update to that is due out shortly .

Yes and to be fair that has largely been the case for 30 years or more. But what we are not seeing is any sign of investment in new production in the UK, any uplift in training, any growth in productivity, any facilitation of growth by removing planning hurdles or otherwise, any attempt to encourage entrepreneurial activity in the UK, it makes you despair. What we got instead was the increase in Employers NI and an above inflation increase in the minimum wage with inevitable consequences for the level of employment.

It just won't do. Our forthcoming budget needs to focus on growth (as Reeves herself recognised before the election). That means finding ways to boost investment through more generous allowances, encouraging training, not hammering Entrepreneurial Relief or Capital Gains or share based ISAs, looking at why London is struggling to compete in the IPO market, etc etc. I fear we are going to see the reverse as our Chancellor scrabbles around for a few billion more taxes to make her nonsensical targets and kick the can down the road for a few more months.

In more concrete matters relating to Starmer's future we have just had our 11th consecutive month with manufacturing PMIs below 50, that is indicating a future contraction and the latest figure is one of the worst: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-factories-stumble-as-new-orders-fall-back-pmi-shows/ar-AA1LD3ZA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=68b69efe1dfd4e56a1a8495a30003596&ei=27

I may have mentioned our trade deficit from time to time in passing. This really isn't helping. Its time we had a government more focused on the day job.

The economy is only staying afloat because of services . The latest update to that is due out shortly .

Yes and to be fair that has largely been the case for 30 years or more. But what we are not seeing is any sign of investment in new production in the UK, any uplift in training, any growth in productivity, any facilitation of growth by removing planning hurdles or otherwise, any attempt to encourage entrepreneurial activity in the UK, it makes you despair. What we got instead was the increase in Employers NI and an above inflation increase in the minimum wage with inevitable consequences for the level of employment.

It just won't do. Our forthcoming budget needs to focus on growth (as Reeves herself recognised before the election). That means finding ways to boost investment through more generous allowances, encouraging training, not hammering Entrepreneurial Relief or Capital Gains or share based ISAs, looking at why London is struggling to compete in the IPO market, etc etc. I fear we are going to see the reverse as our Chancellor scrabbles around for a few billion more taxes to make her nonsensical targets and kick the can down the road for a few more months.

My new brainiac IQ 190 squillionaire friend, who was freaking out about the gilts market months ago (presciently) is now freaking out about gilts EVEN MORE

He says the government is “driving straight into a brick wall”. He thinks the present gilts “crisis” is maybe the markets reacting to Starmer’s “phase 2” speech which didn’t acknowledge the fiscal emergency at all

He says, as tax rises won’t work, borrowing can’t be done, and the government refuses to cut, we “may become Turkey or Argentina for a bit”

🫣

I am no brainiac, nor do I have an IQ of 190, nor, sadly, am I a squillionaire but this is kind of obvious. We are heading towards a fiscal crisis. It is not just that we need to borrow new money at penalty rates, we also have to roll over ever more debt taken out when interest rates were very, very low. 10 year gilts maturing just now were probably borrowed at less than 1%. To replace those borrowed funds we will be borrowing the same money at more than 5%. The cost of our debt is going to be rising for a long time, even if we manage to get current rates down. Every other category of spending is going to be squeezed by this.

Right, so what do we do? The "cut spending" brigade envisage that the sick and the poor are wasting the money so just take it off them. In reality they are sick and poor and when need remains and you cut the provision you spend more mopping up the various crises you create.

So we can't cut spending on the front line. We need to cut spending on everything else. How is it that we have an NHS where the budget goes up every year and front line provision shrinks? Its a bonfire burning our cash - and we can't afford to fuel it any more.

We set up a crisis team during Covid. Massive spike in patients, fewer resources, how do we do things. We need to do the same thing today. We simply cannot afford the vast bureaucracies and overlapping managers that we have in health and education. If that means that we have to make redundant the staff at NHS Trusts and Education Trusts then sobeit.

Even the guy running a company that provides school transport for SEND kids has gone on record complaining of the complete madness & waste in the current system.

PIP payments appear to have gone from “I need money for transport because otherwise I can’t get to work” to ”I have ADHD and find using the bus a bit tricky & would like my own car”,

The NHS maternity service is spending more on compensating mothers & children for damage done to them due to lack of adequate staffing than it is on actually delivering maternity services.

We trapped many of the “sick and poor” in unemployment because we let large corporations argue that even jobs that paid less than minimum wage counted as “shortage professions” that deserved unlimited work visas. How are they going to get work when made to compete in that environment?

The legal profession has turned the Equality Acts into a tool to undermine market forces in the labour market, leading inevitably to the chaos in Birmingham & the further casualisation of labour as employers flatly refuse to take on employees who have been turned into future legal liabilities for the sin of paying different jobs different amounts of money in order to attract workers.

We’ve made it completely impossible to build anything at all, anywhere. Latest stupidity on this front is that the cheap rate for non-degradable landfill that can be used to fill old quarries (cement, soil etc) at £4/tonne is being removed & the standard rate of £136 / tonne is being applied across the board, adding something like ~£25k to the price of the average house & vastly increasing the costs of larger projects. But that’s a pinprick next to the new Building Regulations, which appear to have cut house-building in half from already pitiful levels & the marauding Environment Agency that believes spiders matter more than housing children.

I could (very easily) go on, but there is so much in this country that doesn’t require money spending on it - it needs saner review & regulation. Successive governments have made this situation worse and worse because every regulation has had a proponent who cares very much about it being implemented but the costs have been spread across all of us, so pushback has been difficult to organise. We have ended up with a diffuse rule by lawfare, where everyone has a very important job to do but in the aggregate their job is to prevent anything happening at all.

I see the Starmer administration and consider a government utterly mired in the mundane. I have no doubt that ministers are in their departments beavering away being busy on policy initiatives, feeling like they are making a difference. The problem is that largely they are not - busy fools.

If Starmer is to break this current political zeitgeist then he needs to change plan and do so significantly. @Leon suggests he call an EU referendum - that would do it! Or something similarly bold. I'd even welcome him coming out and calling out the racist women-beating child-molesting scum at the heart of the protect our women / raise the colours movement.

He won't do anything. Because he's frit.

Agreed, entirely.

As I noted yesterday, Labour behave as if scared of their own shadow.

They might also have grasped the nettle of putting Thames Water into special administration.
Or told the BoE to cool it with quantitative tightening.
Or tackled seriously our sclerotic planning rules.
Or selectively used compulsory purchase powers to finance house building in areas of high demand.
Or introduced regional electricity pricing.

Etc

Any or all of those could accurately be described as starting to tackle the mess bequeathed to them.

Instead, some bullshit about using their first year of government to "lay the foundations".