Best Of
Re: Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com
Or you get invited to his Signal chat with his mistress and a contract killer.Let’s say you accidentally get his Amazon parcel with some black tarpaulin, duct tape, a shovel and a pair of ninja swords…That's a bit Minority Report isn't it? Unless he's shared his plans.So if you are aware that your neighbour isOnly protests that the police and government approve of.Planning a protest in concert with the local authorities and police to meet established guidelines for organised protest in one thingYes, planning a protest is now a crime. Unless of course you are a farmer worried about tax.They are the ones who are “planning to shut down London… for a month straight”, right?https://www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-events/news/quakers-condemn-police-raid-on-westminster-meeting-houseIs there any more reporting on that ?It couldn't happen here, Oh wait:Talking of ICE, masked up agents pulling a legally-in-USA PhD student off the streets. She wrote a piece in the student newspaper criticising Israel. It's getting nastier.Land of free speech my arse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGDVKBdq3Gw&t=179s
Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish national and PhD student in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, was arrested outside her off-campus apartment. Then renditioned in violation of a Court Order.
...
Khanbabai said Ozturk had valid F-1 visa status as a PhD student. She has filed a habeas petition in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts for Ozturk’s release from detention.
...
“Unless otherwise ordered by the Court, petitioner shall not be moved outside the District of Massachusetts without first providing advance notice of the intended move,” wrote federal judge Indira Talwani in a three-page order to ICE on Tuesday night.
...
But shortly after the judge made that order, federal authorities transferred Ozturk to Louisiana, according to her attorney.
https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-03-26/tufts-international-graduate-student-taken-into-ice-custody
The op ed she wrote:
https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj
https://bsky.app/profile/georgemonbiot.bsky.social/post/3llit6dd7es2u
You think the arbitrary arrest of political dissenters cannot happen in the UK? It already does. www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...
Your link provides very little detail.
It was a meeting of the group "Youth Demand" who rented a room at the Meeting House. They are protesting for a boycott of Israel and for climate action.
https://youthdemand.org/
In direct violation of the “just stop oil” legislation?
Sounds like they were arrested while planning a crime rather than exercising their free speech.
And they weren’t Quakers about their worship, they had just rented a meeting room.
Planning to obstruct or damage infrastructure is another.
I speak as one who helped plan protests (of the former type) when at university. Generally for causes I opposed.
*I think it was Wellington who said that any damn fool could get 10,000 people into Hyde Park. But it would take a general to get them out, again.
What sort of right to protest is that?
If protesters commit crimes of criminal damage then arrest them. Not for thought crime.
planning to murder his wife you shouldn’t
intervene because it’s “thought crime”?
Re: Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com
Actually I do not think that this is a crisis simply created by the wrong political brand in the White House. Trump´s aggression to America´s closest allies and his conciliation to Putin has shown that the assumption that the US would always come out on the side of freedom and democracy was fundamentally false. Neither is this merely theoretical: Vance, Musk et al are torching due process and the rule of law with every lie they tell and every executive order they impose, and the Congress and the Supreme Court are, so far, fine with that. At this point the separation of powers has not prevented a slew of illegal actions being undertaken by the regime- including threats to world peace.I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.WTAF???Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
@NOELreports
🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791
It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
So, even if you believe that this crooked and incompetent regime will eventually fall (but there is no longer a 100% guarantee of that) the damage is already done. NATO allies are already considering the military threat of the US as a potential adversary and there is no going back from that. For our own security the UK is reducing its intelligence sharing operations, as difficult as that is, not least because Houthigate shows how spectacularly insecure the US system has become. The idea that no one else was listening in is laughable, Russian and Chinese of course, but also British, French and now even Canadians are listening very closely. Big Balls, inadvertently or not, published the entire roster of the CIA, around 1000 names, so at this point the US no longer has a functioning confidential intelligence service.
So the impact of unforgivable incompetence coupled with direct threats to allies on economic, political, and even military fronts against allies has massively and permanently compromised the US as a trusted partner.
Amidst the chaos, the UK is seen as a credible and serious partner, in significant ways we are a peer power to China and drastically more powerful than Putin´s Russia-not merely a nuclear weapon state but the sixth largest economy in the world and a global centre for finance, trade, innovation and in soft power like culture and sport. Collaboration with France, the EU and CANZUK creates a counterweight to the chaos in Washington, and very clearly that is what we must do.
It is not yet a given that we utterly break with the US, but the fundamental assumptions of our 84 year alliance are broken and it is now critical that we accept this and plan for our own security without reference to the US.
Russia think they have won. For the sake of global freedom and our own security, that must not be the case.

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Re: Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com
That's the thing with council tax. A bug chunk of it gets spent on a minority of residents. Leaving a majority thinking that they get charged a fortune but see little in return.Mainly social care, but also SENwhy has council tax soared if they got rid of a million duffers. The clowns could not run a bath.Agreed and one million local Government jobs lost since 2012 suggests, contrary to what the supply siders would have you believe, there was plenty of austerity goingMorning allA slow down in Council Tax rises won't happen. They have had 15 years decades of being shredded, which has fed through to quality of localities and services.
We have Canada voting on April 28th and Australia voting on May 3rd so the new CANZUK alliance might look very different by early May (or it might not as you could easily imagine Carney keeping the Liberals in power and Albanese getting back with Independent help in Canberra).
Some betting opportunities to consider perhaps next month?
On topic, almost all elections are "pocket book" elections inasmuch as how people "feel" economically is a big factor around how they vote. The decisive rejections of Government aren't usually because of a belief the Opposition would do much better but more a perception they couldn't do any worse.
As we now find in many instances they can and do, the option is either to "get the other lot back in" (which is your only option in a rigid 2-party system) or to look elsewhere at the coterie of snake oil salespeople on both and neither extreme (a bit cynical perhaps).
I've raised this many times on here but there still seems to be no practical solution to the issues of stagnant growth and ambient inflation (I seem to recall the UK economy was particularly prone to stubborn inflation). Getting energy prices and council tax rises back to somewhere in the neighbourhood of actual CPI or RPI inflation would be a good start. The notion our energy prices go up so the customers in the countries which own our energy suppliers can see theirs go down (or not rise as much) is a huge bone of contention.
As for local Government finance, notwithstanding the unnecessary costs of pointless re-organisations, the issues of social care, SEN and temporary accommodation costs all remain unresolved - Newham's 8.9% rise in 2025/26 may be part down to overarching incompetence and part down to the same costs as every other councils but the fact remains most people's incomes haven't risen by 8.9% so it's another cost.
I've no statistical evidence but my assertion is we have stagnated since 2008 in terms of living standards. Yes, our assets (primarily but not exclusively property) have appreciated strongly but unless you can release some of that asset (by downsizing) it's not much help. Yet there's plenty of people with plenty of money - I wonder what the take up in ISAs will be in April 2025?
Funding is down hugely - perhaps 30% in real terms since 2010.
on especially in the Coalition years.
Both obligations committed to by central government and then handed off to their local colleagues without new funding streams
Re: Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com
I don't disagree and I am coming to the opinion that, now I know more about it, it is reasonable. However you have to get right to the bottom of the long Independent piece before it says that they refused to move along when asked to. The other reports quoted here erroneously give the impression they were arrested for protesting or expressing an opinion - whereas if they had done it outside Sir Keir's office, they would have probably been allowed to get on with it. Let's have some better reporting "protesters outside Sir Keir Starmer's family home were arrested for a public order offence which protects people's homes after refusing to move along when asked to by the police". See, it's easy.Why would they pick Starmer's house? It's not like he could do much about it. He wasn't even PM at that stage.We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.It might be worth remembering that Starmer's wife and children are Jewish.It would be helpful if the press routinely told us which crime had been broken when reporting a trial. Even that report just calls it "public order offences". I also don't see how the above would cause "alarm or distress" to Sir Keir but his family probably see it differently. Maybe we need a better method of protecting the pavement outside his home.Section 42 of the Criminal Justice and Police Act 2001 covers the harassment of a person at their home address if a police officer suspects it is causing alarm or distress to the occupant.I do wonder what crime was broken by flying a banner and leaving shoes on the pavement. Littering?A Met spokesperson said: “Youth Demand have stated an intention to ‘shut down’ London over the month of April using tactics including ‘swarming’ and roadblocks.Is there any more reporting on that ?It couldn't happen here, Oh wait:Talking of ICE, masked up agents pulling a legally-in-USA PhD student off the streets. She wrote a piece in the student newspaper criticising Israel. It's getting nastier.Land of free speech my arse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGDVKBdq3Gw&t=179s
Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish national and PhD student in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, was arrested outside her off-campus apartment. Then renditioned in violation of a Court Order.
...
Khanbabai said Ozturk had valid F-1 visa status as a PhD student. She has filed a habeas petition in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts for Ozturk’s release from detention.
...
“Unless otherwise ordered by the Court, petitioner shall not be moved outside the District of Massachusetts without first providing advance notice of the intended move,” wrote federal judge Indira Talwani in a three-page order to ICE on Tuesday night.
...
But shortly after the judge made that order, federal authorities transferred Ozturk to Louisiana, according to her attorney.
https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-03-26/tufts-international-graduate-student-taken-into-ice-custody
The op ed she wrote:
https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj
https://bsky.app/profile/georgemonbiot.bsky.social/post/3llit6dd7es2u
You think the arbitrary arrest of political dissenters cannot happen in the UK? It already does. www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...
Your link provides very little detail.
“While we absolutely recognise the importance of the right to protest, we have a responsibility to intervene to prevent activity that crosses the line from protest into serious disruption and other criminality.
“On Thursday, officers raided a Youth Demand planning meeting where those in attendance were plotting their April action.
“Six people were arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance.”
The force confirmed that a number of houses were also raided on Thursday and Friday as part of the same operation.
Youth Demand said the meeting was intended to be “an opportunity to share plans for non-violence civil resistance actions” and alleged that one of those arrested is a journalist.
The group has made anti-Israel demands central to its messaging, calling for the UK government to cut all trade with Israel and accusing it of enabling genocide. It also wants the state to raise money from “the super-rich and fossil fuel elite” to pay damages for the effects of fossil fuel burning.
A Youth Demand spokesperson said: “It’s clear that the government sees Youth Demand as a threat. They know that we are right.
“The government is facilitating genocide. Thousands of us are horrified.
“We will not be silenced. Young people all over the country are coming together to shut London down day after day throughout April.”
The group’s tactics have previously drawn criticism, including from within the Jewish community. In April last year, three activists hung a banner and laid rows of children’s shoes outside the home of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Lenorah Ward, 21, Zosia Lewis, 23, and Daniel Formentin, 24, were each handed suspended prison sentences over the stunt.
More arrests followed in July when Youth Demand announced plans to disrupt the State Opening of Parliament.
Despite the latest police intervention, the group is promoting another “welcome talk” in Brighton on Monday evening.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/youth-activists-arrested-over-plan-to-shut-down-london-in-anti-israel-campaign/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx77ljll077o
Three people have been found guilty of public order offences after a pro-Palestinian demonstration outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.
Leonorah Ward, 21, from Leeds; Zosia Lewis, 23, from Newcastle-upon-Tyne; and Daniel Formentin, 24, also from Leeds, were also found guilty of breaching court bail, but had denied all the charges.
The whole case seems to be 'we will protest' (fair enough) 'we will protest to the wrong person' (silly, but not a crime) 'we will ignore the police when ordered to leave' (stupid, and illegal as the police can make that decision) 'we are martyrs for free speech' (not buying it).
I can understand in this case that the protest being pro-Palestinian which movement has contained some pretty ugly anti-Semitic traits could be especially intimidating to a household with Jews in it.
Re: Starmer’s improving ratings – politicalbetting.com
Talking of ICE, masked up agents pulling a legally-in-USA PhD student off the streets. She wrote a piece in the student newspaper criticising Israel. It's getting nastier.Land of free speech my arse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGDVKBdq3Gw&t=179s
Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish national and PhD student in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, was arrested outside her off-campus apartment. Then renditioned in violation of a Court Order.
...
Khanbabai said Ozturk had valid F-1 visa status as a PhD student. She has filed a habeas petition in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts for Ozturk’s release from detention.
...
“Unless otherwise ordered by the Court, petitioner shall not be moved outside the District of Massachusetts without first providing advance notice of the intended move,” wrote federal judge Indira Talwani in a three-page order to ICE on Tuesday night.
...
But shortly after the judge made that order, federal authorities transferred Ozturk to Louisiana, according to her attorney.
https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-03-26/tufts-international-graduate-student-taken-into-ice-custody
The op ed she wrote:
https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj
Re: Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com
Class sizes have really ballooned of late.A school whatsapp group has... 1.2 million members? This is a part of social media I am completely unfamiliar with. The biggest one I'm in is about 200 hundred, and that's for organising climbing trips.From reporting, it seems that most of the emails were about managing their disabled daughter - they were not allowed into the school to show the teachers how to give medication, for example.According to radio 4 they sent 80 emails in a 6 month period (basically one every 2 working days) having been banned from the school premises after challenging the appointment process for the head teacher and “casting aspersions” on the chair of the governors.And this as wellhttps://www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-events/news/quakers-condemn-police-raid-on-westminster-meeting-houseIs there any more reporting on that ?It couldn't happen here, Oh wait:Talking of ICE, masked up agents pulling a legally-in-USA PhD student off the streets. She wrote a piece in the student newspaper criticising Israel. It's getting nastier.Land of free speech my arse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGDVKBdq3Gw&t=179s
Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish national and PhD student in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, was arrested outside her off-campus apartment. Then renditioned in violation of a Court Order.
...
Khanbabai said Ozturk had valid F-1 visa status as a PhD student. She has filed a habeas petition in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts for Ozturk’s release from detention.
...
“Unless otherwise ordered by the Court, petitioner shall not be moved outside the District of Massachusetts without first providing advance notice of the intended move,” wrote federal judge Indira Talwani in a three-page order to ICE on Tuesday night.
...
But shortly after the judge made that order, federal authorities transferred Ozturk to Louisiana, according to her attorney.
https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-03-26/tufts-international-graduate-student-taken-into-ice-custody
The op ed she wrote:
https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj
https://bsky.app/profile/georgemonbiot.bsky.social/post/3llit6dd7es2u
You think the arbitrary arrest of political dissenters cannot happen in the UK? It already does. www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...
Your link provides very little detail.
It was a meeting of the group "Youth Demand" who rented a room at the Meeting House. They are protesting for a boycott of Israel and for climate action.
https://youthdemand.org/
https://x.com/c_kletzer/status/1905888893737590924?
t=0ax4E2LsJ9FxEAZG7gXwuA&s=19
While the police may have been heavy handed it does seem like there could potentially be a case to answer on harassment
The mum locked up is a producer for Times Radio.
The Times article is quite good and detailed (I commend the journo):
https://archive.is/20250328191932/https://www.thetimes.com/article/d8c8566b-99b1-45c6-814b-008042d74a3a
Interview with the dad:
https://x.com/timesradio/status/1905693691416883419
It is a far more credible complaint imo that Allison Pearson's. I'd call it afaics that it was an acting head who they had been slightly rude about ("control freak" - imo accurate from the accounts) in a parents' group on Whatapp, who put in an over-juicy complaint and so the police went in feet first and mob handed.
The one negative point I can see for the parents is that the Whatsapp group was a little large with 1.2 million members. And perhaps initially emailing all the Governors when he did not get a reply was a bit OTT.
I think the arrest may have been unnecessary - chap said he would quite happily have toddled along to the station for an interview.
The authorities are trying to let it lie. I don't think it will.

10
Re: Starmer’s improving ratings – politicalbetting.com
JD VanceThe Vance-schluss (nicked from twitter).
What a dick
He has a point about Denmark not doing enough to keep Greenland safe from aggressive incursions. Him for example.
Re: Starmer’s improving ratings – politicalbetting.com
I've just watched JD Vance speak to the Greenlanders. Can anyone think of a more ignorant and rude senior politician in recent years with the possible exception of Farage?Farage is far more polite than Vance imo.

5
Re: Starmer’s improving ratings – politicalbetting.com
@erichaywood.bsky.socialIf the UK needs someone to tell Donald Trump to fuck off I'm fairly sure I could manage that job.
Not gonna pretend like I know anything about Carney’s politics because I don’t, but I watched his speech yesterday and he essentially told Trump to fuck off and now Trump’s speaking about him with a modicum of respect.
I feel like there’s a lesson in there somewhere.
https://bsky.app/profile/erichaywood.bsky.social/post/3llhadmbv322t

5
Re: Starmer’s improving ratings – politicalbetting.com
Starmer's doing a pretty good job at the moment imo but the best thing he could do next would be to pass legislation to force the Sentencing Council to drop their new recommendations. If he does that Labour's support could go back up to 30% in the polls.The people complaining about that likely aren’t going to vote Labour anyway. I doubt there’d be much reaction if he did do anything on it.

6