Best Of
Re: 11 days to go and punters aren’t expecting Badenoch to Kemikaze her chances – politicalbetting.com
Greetings from Turkmenistan. Spent this morning at Nisa, World Heritaage Site and residence of Parthian kings.
A central battle point on the Silk Road.
Then onto the new Turkmen carpet museum. If you like oriental carpets, it is magnificent. It also houses the world's largest carpet. If that's your bag.
A central battle point on the Silk Road.
Then onto the new Turkmen carpet museum. If you like oriental carpets, it is magnificent. It also houses the world's largest carpet. If that's your bag.
Re: 11 days to go and punters aren’t expecting Badenoch to Kemikaze her chances – politicalbetting.com
The early release of prisoners to tackle overcrowding will be undermined by the “high level of recalls” of offenders to jail, the chief inspector of probation has warned. Martin Jones, chief HMI of probation, said that for every 100 prisoners released in the first quarter of this year, 56 had been recalled to jail because they reoffended or breached their licence.Its almost as if sending convicted prisoners into the free world with £46 in their pocket and generally no employment, and often no housing doesn't actually work.
Re: A blast from the past – politicalbetting.com
"Letter from Michigan: “No one I know is voting for Kamala Harris”Harris voters only know Harris voters.
Will Donald Trump win the struggling swing state?
By Bruno Maçães"
https://www.newstatesman.com/us-election-2024/2024/10/letter-from-michigan-no-one-i-know-is-voting-kamala-harris
Trump voters only know Trump voters.
It's one of the most unhealthy things about US democracy right now.
rcs1000
11
Re: A blast from the past – politicalbetting.com
All the significant UKIP people forming a different party and transferring the brand was not very predicable, I don't blame people for thinking they would still be important, as their successor party still is.
It'd be like thinking the Liberal Party would still be around in notable form and being wrong because the Liberal Democrats exist instead (Not a perfect analogy with the UKIP/Brexit/Reform change, but I think close enough).
The LDs there were some real questions about for awhile, given their voteshare has remained stubbornly low, but boy did they maximise their support perfectly, which must have been beyond anyone's expectation. They even have very close to proportionate numbers of MPs now.
It'd be like thinking the Liberal Party would still be around in notable form and being wrong because the Liberal Democrats exist instead (Not a perfect analogy with the UKIP/Brexit/Reform change, but I think close enough).
The LDs there were some real questions about for awhile, given their voteshare has remained stubbornly low, but boy did they maximise their support perfectly, which must have been beyond anyone's expectation. They even have very close to proportionate numbers of MPs now.
kle4
5
Re: A blast from the past – politicalbetting.com
FPT
I have friends at the CPS and in the legal profession who rightly predicted given the situation any comments that sought to condone, glorify, encourage, or assist the disorder were likely to lead to the rozzers getting involved.
Robert, myself, and the moderation team had to remove several comments that violated that (along with somebody posting the locations of the upcoming disorder.
Remember you probably didn't see the deleted comments.
OGH has made it clear he doesn't want any legal issues on PB or the potential of damages, so if we appear overly cautious that's why and we're not going to apologise for that.
That is a mis-remembering of the situation.How quickly people forget. Even the owners of this very site were briefly scared by the long arm of the law into threatening expulsion of members. Not for inciting violence or racial hatred, but for what would otherwise count as normal civic discussion in a free society.There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.You can see the next problem coming along.This is the MP for Boston and Skegness.Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
"Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
@TiceRichard
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848320885754630155
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
I have friends at the CPS and in the legal profession who rightly predicted given the situation any comments that sought to condone, glorify, encourage, or assist the disorder were likely to lead to the rozzers getting involved.
Robert, myself, and the moderation team had to remove several comments that violated that (along with somebody posting the locations of the upcoming disorder.
Remember you probably didn't see the deleted comments.
OGH has made it clear he doesn't want any legal issues on PB or the potential of damages, so if we appear overly cautious that's why and we're not going to apologise for that.
Re: Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers? – politicalbetting.com
The data we are getting out of the US is just so contradictory and so biased it's probably impossible for any of us to make predictions that are anything other than utter WAGs. Polls are unscientific and/or are biased one way or other, the media is filled with biased reporting, and the only people who probably know how the ground game is going (the campaign managers) probably keep stum about the states and areas they are weak in, whilst boasting about where they are strong (and those boasts might be lies).
Add in the weirdness of the EC, and it is as clear as mud.
How does anyone try to come up with an unbiased prediction? It's bad enough in UK elections, but the American system is almost designed to be unclear.
Add in the weirdness of the EC, and it is as clear as mud.
How does anyone try to come up with an unbiased prediction? It's bad enough in UK elections, but the American system is almost designed to be unclear.
Re: Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers? – politicalbetting.com
I think you’re quietly getting quite enthusiastic about a Trump victory, and I sense a few posters here are. The frisson of owning the libs is starting to outweigh the downsides of electing a narcissistic wannabe dictator.If that does happen then it will be one of the biggest misses by the intelligentsia in history.After Trump's McDonalds triumph, the chances of a Ronnie Reagan style landslide have surely increased.It is. But let's speculate wildly right up to when we can't. That's what this febrile period is for.Yes. I see. It is just a question of waiting for the final result.The polling is harder to read than in 2016. Back then there was enough data to support the hunch that Trump had a path to win via the rustbelt but this time there's less of a pattern. With that said, if he is ahead in the national PV, it's hard to see how he loses.Political PollsInteresting. I am not sure Trump will get Nevada. I have no facts to back it up with. Just my intuition.
@Politics_Polls
·
1h
#NEW
@RedfieldWilton
/
@Telegraph
Poll:
Arizona: Trump +3
North Carolina: Trump +3
Nevada: Trump +1
Georgia: Trump +1
Florida: Trump +4
Michigan: Tied
Pennsylvania: Tied
Wisconsin: Harris +1
And lots of posters on here will have egg on their faces.
By the way I did as you said and told the conference room that I voted Leave and support Trump. The chair thanked me for my interjection and asked whether I knew I was in a meeting to discuss tax rules for digital nomads.
TimS
8
Re: Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers? – politicalbetting.com
English smacking ban being considered by government
The move comes following fresh calls for a ban by the Children's Commissioner for England Dame Rachel de Souza, after the death of 10-year-old Sara Sharif.
A court heard Sara was hooded, burned and beaten over a two-year period as her father, stepmother and uncle stand trial for her murder, which they deny.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr4x4lqv4d0o
I don't think if you are willing to hood, burn and beat your kid regularly over the course of 2 years a smacking ban is going to change your behaviour!
I hate this use of very extreme edge cases to piggy back changes to policy that are irrelevant to that.
The move comes following fresh calls for a ban by the Children's Commissioner for England Dame Rachel de Souza, after the death of 10-year-old Sara Sharif.
A court heard Sara was hooded, burned and beaten over a two-year period as her father, stepmother and uncle stand trial for her murder, which they deny.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr4x4lqv4d0o
I don't think if you are willing to hood, burn and beat your kid regularly over the course of 2 years a smacking ban is going to change your behaviour!
I hate this use of very extreme edge cases to piggy back changes to policy that are irrelevant to that.
Re: Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers? – politicalbetting.com
Indeed. There's an irony in that certain people, inevitably, are doing exactly the things they did when confidently calling a Hillary win in 2020 - but worse.As I posted below - anyone who thinks they know the US election result is delusion...
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
4h
There is obviously still time for the picture to change. But on current polling - both national and statewide - it's clear Trump is moving ahead. To the point I'm not sure it will be the close result people are expecting. At least not in the Electoral College.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1848308952557105243Anyone looking at early voting and thinking it tells you anything about the end result is delusional.In person early numbers looking good for Trump in Florida.If he has to worry about Florida then he’s going to be in big trouble in Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Equally I think anyone with a clue as to what the end result of the US election is going to be is also delusional - there isn't enough trustworthy data to give an accurate answer...
In that then, 538, the (imperfect but then longest standing) probability modeller gave Trump a roughly a 30% chance of winning. Which of course made his win in theory less likely - but very much non-zero. The polls only had to be out by a bit and in the wrong places. Yet some saw the vibes and called it as a certainty for Clinton without any caveat and looked quite silly.
Today, 538 has it 52-48 (ho ho) in favour of Trump. Because the most reliable polls in many of the key states are well within the margin of error and even are assuming are spot on something could clearly change even over 2 weeks or by some campaigning mistake.
Yet because Trump has had a small uptick in the polls and some reasonable headlines, the vibes are with him and so it's apparently all over. When if people are being honest and rigorous they'd have to say "I don't know" given the data available and possible ways and directions it could differ.
It's the kind of prediction you'd only be making with a gun to your head.
MJW
5
Re: Could this mean shy (young) Trumpers? – politicalbetting.com
@Malmesbury’s free helplineThat entirely misrepresents what OGH's acolyte warned us about.How quickly people forget. Even the owners of this very site were briefly scared by the long arm of the law into threatening expulsion of members. Not for inciting violence or racial hatred, but for what would otherwise count as normal civic discussion in a free society.There is a gigantic gulf between a self publicising idiot throwing milkshakes and using words and actions to a large and enraged audience inciting, urging and encouraging them to burn down buildings with people inside them and kill innocent strangers.You can see the next problem coming along.This is the MP for Boston and Skegness.Sorry to say but my gut says that you are probably thinking about this backwards. i.e. that Tice outs himself as an extremist for saying this.
"Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
@TiceRichard
Peter Lynch is dead. Please watch this explanation by @IsabelOakeshott. He said some very unwise, daft, bad things. But he did not deserve to die for it. He was a political prisoner in the UK. Two tier justice by @Keir_Starmer killed this man."
https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848320885754630155
More likely he’s reflecting a view point that will be widely held among the electorate, on one of the few political stories of the last year or few with real cut through.
If he’s to avoid a slew of losses to Reform, Starmer is going to have to work very hard indeed to lose the Two Tier tag, if he even yet recognises it as an electoral liability.
Shouty woman gets 2 and a half years for trolling on the internet.
Woman who milkshaked Farage gets what ?
Shouty trolling this is not. Shouty trolling is widely available from many sources and is not a criminal offence.
But then again our new prime minister thought it was dangerous and reckless to allow citizens to show their faces uncovered even after the vaccine programme. And half the people here fully agreed.
Question - Mamesbury, I keep getting mistaken for a racist? How can I fix this?
Don’t set immigrants on fire. Don’t advocate setting immigrants on fire.
What, not even a little one?
Especially not small immigrants, no
But….
No buts. You have to go cold turkey on the whole thing.
