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Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Boris had driven too many of his colleagues away with his own behaviour.Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't helpHarris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.
Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.
What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.
Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris
And would have driven even more away if he had remained PM for a few more months.
Say what you like but the fundamental problem was Boris's journey of self-destruction and the unwillingness of the Conservative establishment to do anything about it.
Boris could have been prime minister for ten years if he had been willing to have some self-control.
But he preferred to go to lockdown parties, grift money for redecorating and continually lie to his colleagues about trivial things.
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Greetings all.
Flying visit to wish everyone a Happy Christmas. Been very busy moving into my new home, am now safely installed in Stefan Aquarone's North Norfolk and free from Clive Lewis' Socialist Republic of Green Gain Norwich South.
Probably be busy till towards May elections but a few observations since was last here (that im sure youve all discussed but i aint been here bruv)
Kemi improving but her personal recovery not yet, imo, translating into a Tory recovery (a stabilisation perhaps) - nothing over 21% since conferemces but their local election vote is starting to hold up better away from the SW and where they are also rans.
Labour face apocalypse in May - every chance they fail to 'win London' and Welsh meltdown
Tories might well poll better in Scotland than Wales - Scotland should be somewhere round Annabel Goldie 2011, Wales will be their worst there by a distance
Polanski is the sort of empty vessel that wins yourh votes like Magic Grandpa used to, but the Greens wont top 20 seats
Lib Dems need a new approach/broom or they face a real struggle to attract tactical votes from potentially fifth and hold on to the borrowed votes that won them 72 seats on 12.6% (theyll still hold a good portion whilst/if Tories struggle at 20% of course, but the bottom could fall out in a few)
Current expectation of the next GE result - +/- 3% each Ref 23 Lab 23 Con 23 LD 11 Grn 11 SNP 2 PC 1 YP 3 Advance 1 Indies/non YP gaza style 2
Merry Christmas!
Flying visit to wish everyone a Happy Christmas. Been very busy moving into my new home, am now safely installed in Stefan Aquarone's North Norfolk and free from Clive Lewis' Socialist Republic of Green Gain Norwich South.
Probably be busy till towards May elections but a few observations since was last here (that im sure youve all discussed but i aint been here bruv)
Kemi improving but her personal recovery not yet, imo, translating into a Tory recovery (a stabilisation perhaps) - nothing over 21% since conferemces but their local election vote is starting to hold up better away from the SW and where they are also rans.
Labour face apocalypse in May - every chance they fail to 'win London' and Welsh meltdown
Tories might well poll better in Scotland than Wales - Scotland should be somewhere round Annabel Goldie 2011, Wales will be their worst there by a distance
Polanski is the sort of empty vessel that wins yourh votes like Magic Grandpa used to, but the Greens wont top 20 seats
Lib Dems need a new approach/broom or they face a real struggle to attract tactical votes from potentially fifth and hold on to the borrowed votes that won them 72 seats on 12.6% (theyll still hold a good portion whilst/if Tories struggle at 20% of course, but the bottom could fall out in a few)
Current expectation of the next GE result - +/- 3% each Ref 23 Lab 23 Con 23 LD 11 Grn 11 SNP 2 PC 1 YP 3 Advance 1 Indies/non YP gaza style 2
Merry Christmas!
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.Harris lost the popular vote *against Donald Trump*. That's how badly she did.
Cookie
8
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Apologies for the horrendous tautology on the previous thread.Only a lawyer could use 'tautology' when 'oxymoron' is required.
I promise not to use 'lawyerly brilliance' again.
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
Nope. I am in favour of abolishing the right to asylum. We can then give asylum to anyone we choose, such as Ukrainians or Hong Kong Chinese but are under no obligation to accept anyone who has been unlucky enough to be born in some hell hole or thinks they can have a better life here. It needs to become our choice and when it does nearly all of the current chaos of never ending applications, appeals and lack of enforcement of hard won decisions comes to an end.I thought you were in favour of small boat returns?Also residents of the Isle of Wight need to pay attention. They could end up being in France before they know it.We should probably wait for the details of the Erasmus deal first before jumping to sneer about it.We're probably going to end up paying £3bn per year or something mad like that with this lot in charge of negotiations.
The old deal *was* greatly to the benefit of the EU, although the flip-side I suppose was the influx of smart, talented young Europeans into the British workforce.
DavidL
6
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
BREAKING:He's not confident about England lasting long in the Adelaide Test.
Kaitlan Collins
@kaitlancollins
President Trump says he'll be addressing the nation tomorrow night at 9 p.m. ET.
https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/2000995956700143628
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
Universities and social services benefit the country as a whole. BBC game shows do not.Carry on. Object vehemently. Should I object vehemently to university subsidies as I use zero university services? Or adult social services which we fortunately don't use?As someone who uses zero BBC services I would object vehemently to such a tax unless it was strictly to fund a limited set of core BBC services; news reporting, public service program making, etc. If the beeb want to continue making soap operas and game shows they should sell subscriptions or advertising to fund them.The BBC themselves want a digital tax. On ISPs.That's the 'fund from general taxation' option. Then like schools, hospitals etc it's free at the point of delivery.Per Telegraph:Why not just give everyone a free TV licence?
"Benefit claimants could receive free television licences under sweeping BBC reforms being considered by Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary."
So the actual license payer will not just be stumping up for Trump's amour propre
Because that way the tax will be hidden from the public. Whose bills for internet connections will go up, of course.
Then all the BBC has to do is ask for more free money every year.
Taxation doesn't work like that.
Nothing to stop you objecting though.
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
As someone who uses zero BBC services I would object vehemently to such a tax unless it was strictly to fund a limited set of core BBC services; news reporting, public service program making, etc. If the beeb want to continue making soap operas and game shows they should sell subscriptions or advertising to fund them.The BBC themselves want a digital tax. On ISPs.That's the 'fund from general taxation' option. Then like schools, hospitals etc it's free at the point of delivery.Per Telegraph:Why not just give everyone a free TV licence?
"Benefit claimants could receive free television licences under sweeping BBC reforms being considered by Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary."
So the actual license payer will not just be stumping up for Trump's amour propre
Because that way the tax will be hidden from the public. Whose bills for internet connections will go up, of course.
Then all the BBC has to do is ask for more free money every year.
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
George Osborne
@George_Osborne
Hi, some personal news - I’m changing job. I recently asked myself the question: what’s the most exciting and promising company in the world right now? The answer I believe is HSBC.
Unfortunately they turned me down so I am doing some side gig with a lot of computer muppets for a couple of years just so Nick Clegg and I can chat properly at dinner about the difference between a bit and a byte.
@George_Osborne
Hi, some personal news - I’m changing job. I recently asked myself the question: what’s the most exciting and promising company in the world right now? The answer I believe is HSBC.
Unfortunately they turned me down so I am doing some side gig with a lot of computer muppets for a couple of years just so Nick Clegg and I can chat properly at dinner about the difference between a bit and a byte.
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
Brexit is like Communism. It only appears to have failed because it has never been tried properly.Ah I see. So we're just waiting for the right government to come along and it's lift off. Right you are. That's good. It has the benefit of being repeatable forever more.Fanciful or otherwise, you do seem to have had difficulty understanding it. Let me be more prosaic. With some obvious 'workaday', exceptions like the absence of membership fees (not exactly chump change when Reeves' hasn't got two pennies to bless herself with), Brexit restored a fairly large arsenal of competencies to the UK Government. Competencies only become benefits if one decides to use them. And deciding not to use them at all was not an outcome that anyone, from the most ardent Brexit supporter to the most passionate remainer, predicted.I thought it was like having a baby? Certainly it seems to lend itself to fanciful analogy in lieu of any mundane workaday benefits.Standard drivel.Brexit was just a spiteful destruction of opportunity voted for by people who'd had their time and had no plan for the aftermath.@PippaCrerarIs this where we give the EU what they want and they fuck us up the ass.
EXCL: An agreement to rejoin Erasmus – the EU’s student exchange programme – set to be announced on Wednesday as part of UK government’s drive towards closer relations with Brussels.
https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/2000992877443231788?s=20
SKS would pay full price for a Dominos pizza
It's been left to the people who voted against it to make the best of the mess left behind, turns out that means trying to recover the benefits at greater cost as was said at the time.
Suck it up.
Brexit opened doors. Doors can allow you to leave the house, have fun, get a job, or meet the love of your life. Or you can stand at the threshold in the stiff breeze rooted to the spot, reminiscing about how great it was when the door was closed.
Foxy
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