Best Of

'Evening pb. Just fulfilled a long held ambition: accompanied by my oldest daughter, I got the train to Penrith, then walked (yesterday) from Penrith to Troutbeck across High Street - staying last night at the Mortal Man - then today walked from Troutbeck over Wansfell Pike to Ambleside and then on to Windermere, getting the train back from Windermere. 50km in two days. Others have done more I'm sure but it's more than I've ever managed before (and the first day's 30km was more than I've ever managed in a day). Also fulfilled the side ambitions of seeing Haweswater (the one Lake District lake that has eluded me up until now), learning cribbage (daughter and I learned it last night) and using the Windermere-Oxenholme line (and wondering whether @Sunil_Prasannan had been on this line - but of course he has! - the latter was gratifyingly well-used).
My feet are throbbing, but I feel elated.

Talking about Rupert Lowe.

He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.

The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.

Whilst it was a stupid knee jerk type error, I do think there is slight merit in a politician actually putting their hands up and admitting they cocked up and making some sort of restitution- how often to MPs just say “fair cop, I was wrong and apologise” instead of wriggling.

And if every MP coughed up £1000 every time they said something stupid/wrong the black hole would be filled sharpish.

There's saying stupid things and saying stupid things in the context of whipping up racist fear and loathing.

It is the first of four gruelling rows the crew will take over four years in an attempt to raise £57m for motor neurone disease research, inspired by the deaths of rugby players Rob Burrow and Doddie Weir from the condition.

Matthew Parker, Mike Bates, Aaron Kneebone and Liz Wardley said the coastguard initially contacted them and asked if they could see a dinghy nearby.

Ex-Royal Marine Mr Bates, a British record holder for rowing across the Atlantic solo, said it soon became clear the coastguard was asking about their boat.

"I looked to my right and there was maybe a dozen individuals stood on the shoreline staring at us," he told the PA news agency.

After the coastguard accepted they were not carrying migrants, they rowed on through the night but hours later were contacted again by the coastguard because the police had "asked if they could send a lifeboat out to check who we were".

A friend then forwarded Mr Lowe's post, which Mr Bates said was "a moment of light relief".

"We found it hilarious. I've not been mistaken for a migrant before," he said.

"The best comment was the one asking where the Royal Navy were when you need them. I'm a former Royal Marine, so the Royal Navy were on the boat.

"But it was almost like a vigilante-style, people following us down the beach.

"They hadn't twigged that we were parallel to the shore for hours and not trying to land."

@WSJ
Breaking: Russian President Vladimir Putin told the U.S. he'll halt the war in exchange for Eastern Ukraine

Trump claims “President Putin I believe wants to see peace” and acknowledges Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions (unclear what Russia’s concessions will be, if any)
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1953915459708842361

There's the problem, right there.

As was posted on the previous thread, the US is looking for a ceasefire on current lines ie Russia keeps the territory it now occupies but no more.

Realistically there is no alternative to the above if you want Putin to accept a ceasefire and if Zelensky has not already pushed the Russians back from there he likely never will

The deal is that Russia gets to keep stolen territory, sanctions relief from the US, and a pause in the fighting. And absolving of responsibility for a war of aggression, and mass murder of civilians.

Ukraine gets a pause in the fighting, and a promise from Putin - which is of (many times demonstrated) zero value.

And Ukraine and Europe get to prepare for the next invasion, without US help.

If Trump has indeed sold out Europe in this manner, there may be no alternative for now.
But please don't pretend that it's any kind of deal which includes Ukraine. Or Europe.

How does the US force Europe and Ukraine to accept?

He can bring the UK to heel easily enough by threatening Trident. Probably tariffs for the EU.

Ukraine doesn't matter at all. It's a failed stated that is entirely dependent on its parasitical relationship with the taxpayers of the EU and UK. I hope they think Hunter Biden was worth it. If they'd fucked him over when Trump asked, they'd be in a far happier position now.

A failed state which has fought off the largest army in Europe for three years ? And continues to do so, while Russia relies on tens of thousands of foreign troops and the industrial support of China.

The UK was similarly dependent on its parasitical relationship with the US during WWII.
Were we a failed state back then ?

Russia has been a full on gangster state since the murderer and gangster Lenin killed his way to the top. Putin has the same territorial impulses as Stalin.
A Russia which took over your 'failed state', with its human resources, and industrial capacity would represent an enormous future threat to Europe.

@WSJ
Breaking: Russian President Vladimir Putin told the U.S. he'll halt the war in exchange for Eastern Ukraine

Trump claims “President Putin I believe wants to see peace” and acknowledges Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions (unclear what Russia’s concessions will be, if any)
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1953915459708842361

There's the problem, right there.

As was posted on the previous thread, the US is looking for a ceasefire on current lines ie Russia keeps the territory it now occupies but no more.

Realistically there is no alternative to the above if you want Putin to accept a ceasefire and if Zelensky has not already pushed the Russians back from there he likely never will

The deal is that Russia gets to keep stolen territory, sanctions relief from the US, and a pause in the fighting. And absolving of responsibility for a war of aggression, and mass murder of civilians.

Ukraine gets a pause in the fighting, and a promise from Putin - which is of (many times demonstrated) zero value.

And Ukraine and Europe get to prepare for the next invasion, without US help.

If Trump has indeed sold out Europe in this manner, there may be no alternative for now.
But please don't pretend that it's any kind of deal which includes Ukraine. Or Europe.

How does the US force Europe and Ukraine to accept?

He can bring the UK to heel easily enough by threatening Trident. Probably tariffs for the EU.

Ukraine doesn't matter at all. It's a failed stated that is entirely dependent on its parasitical relationship with the taxpayers of the EU and UK. I hope they think Hunter Biden was worth it. If they'd fucked him over when Trump asked, they'd be in a far happier position now.

Quite impressive writing so much crap in such a short post.

You really should learn something about that part of the world. And about Trump for that matter - he expects everybody else to do him favours, but rarely if ever returns them.

Ukraine isn't a failed state at all - it has a functioning government, a democratic opposition, a reasonably free press and a heroic President.

It isn't "entirely dependent" on its "parasitical relationship" with EU and UK taxpayers at all - of Ukraine's state budget of $74 billion, only about $11 billion comes from international grants, and much of that was from the interest on frozen Russian assets, not European taxpayers.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-pay-24-billion-in-taxes-in-2024/

If anybody is the parasite, it's us - giving pitifully inadequate aid while a brave democracy holds back an evil and aggressive dictatorship at enormous cost in money and men.

FPT. "This is no criticism of YouGov but more a coment on the irrelevance of Kemi Badenoch as YouGov didn’t feel the need to poll these questions about Kemi Badenoch."

Genuine question TSE, why no criticism of YouGov for failing to acknowledge Kemi Badenoch as the leader of the main Opposition party at Westminster in this poll and then giving them a free pass for doing so and writing off her absence from it as more a comment of the 'irrevelavance' her as a politician when the same poll included a former Labour party leader now an independent backbencher who has just formed a new party with less than a handful of MPs and about 6 elected councillors to its name?

From the moment I read your article setting out YouGov's findings as a female poster on this site I felt really uncomfortable and to be honest, bloody angry! And I know I am probable going to be very unpopular for pointing this out, but the silence from any of the regulars on the site questioning this arrogant assumption about a woman who did something that neither Farage or Corbyn have done recently, and that is fought a leadership contest and won and she is the politican that faces the PM on a weekly basis at PMQs!

But as another regular poster admitted yesterday on this site these days it really can come across as a mens only club. I was a regular poster on the site from almost the beginning when Mike Smithson set it up, I still remember the day I went from a lurker to a poster only to be welcomed by a very elderly Jacobite who when informed me that as a Scottish Conservative I was most welcome because we don't have many of them here. Back in the early days I was ChrisD until someone one night got annoyed about the sheer amount of Chris's on the site and I then changed my name to ChristinaD only to discover that despite being a 40 year old married Mum of three more than one regular had assumed I was a single gay man because not only I did I not share personal details back then it was almost a given I had to male.

But over the next few years we finally built up a very formidable but small regular female presence on the site, and yes lads, we formed a bit of a collective and talked off piste. But the biggest irony for me is that I became good friends on here with the then only female SNP supporter on the site despite our political differences. And I am genuinely really sad today at the lack of openly female voices on here since my return to posting, even more sad now with the absence of the last really fiesty female voice on the site in Cyclefree who has done so much heavy lifting on her own as a regular contributor in recent years.

Marc Andreessen complains to Downing Street about Online Safety Act and UK tech minister

In a sign that the government was caught off guard by the extent to which these tools would be used, ministers last week requested data from the internet regulator Ofcom about how and when VPNs were being downloaded, according to two people briefed on the move.

Kyle has said publicly that he is not considering any ban on VPNs, but officials say ministers are keen to understand how the tools are being used, particularly by children.

https://www.ft.com/content/09c88dde-687e-47c7-ba9d-7ad5048e2bc7

The blind leading the blind.

LOL, none of them have the slightest bit of a clue!

Do none of them have a 14-year-old son, who could tell them that it takes about three minutes to work around the OSA provisions on adult content?

PJ O’Rourke observed that a major problem with child proof lids on medication bottles, was not having a child around to open one for you.

@JenniferJJacobs

"Washington and Moscow are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia's ocupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to people familiar with the matter. US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as early as next week, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The US is working to get buy in from Ukraine and its European allies on the deal, which is far from certain, the people said."

https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1953828464047665241

To be honest, that is the only way a ceasefire would hold on both sides

Nope

The war could end tomorrow if Russia withdrew

I expect the two child benefit cap will go in November mostly funded by an increase in gambling taxes . This no 10 will hope will reduce the appeal of Your party .

An increase in gambling taxes is low hanging fruit and won’t be controversial for the vast majority of the
public .

Good morning

Another unpopular measure according to the polls, and does nothing to address Reeves 'all my very own deep hole' in the public finances

Why doesn't she focus on all the popular ways to increase taxes and cut spending? It's exasperating.

Truth is that income tax has to rise, but she cannot do that because of her idiotic pre election promises

Also you do not raise taxes to address a huge hole in the public finances and use some of that tax raising to create another spending commitment

Do you think whoever is leading the tory party at the next GE will do into it promising to raise income tax because I don't.

Labour are a high tax high spend government and it is not in their DNA to cut spending

Conservatives are low tax low spending and I would expect a conservative government to reduce corporation tax, encourage wealth creation and abolish IHT on farmers. I would also expect a review of all net zero subsidies

Why on earth would you expect them to do that? Most of that is at odds with their time in office - particularly on renewables and farmers.

Any party that is focussed on a pensioner voting cohort like the Conservatives is going to high tax, high spend.

Cameron and Osborne certainly cut spending as a percentage of gdp and cut tax at all income levels, including a big inheritance tax cut.

Kemi has said she will take an axe to spending, especially welfare spending and net zero spending etc and at one stage even proposed means testing the triple lock

How much did the national debt increase during the last Conservative government?

Because of lockdown, Cameron and Osborne certainly cut it compared to what Brown left

You’d think someone interested in politics would understand the difference between the deficit and the debt but you’ve never been good with numbers.

You did not just say national debt, you said national debt increase, the national debt increase was lower under Cameron and Clegg and Osborne than Brown and Darling

Are you trying to argue that the national debt didn’t increase between 2010 and 2024? Because it did. Massively.

It increased at a lower rate than under Brown and Darling, certainly pre lockdown

And yet the national debt increased. Massively. Strong financial management by the Tories. Bravo.

Spending as a percentage of gdp was 47% when Brown left office in 2010, falling to 41% when Cameron left office in 2016

Maybe, but that isn’t the national debt. That’s a different statistic entirely.

It led to the decline in increase in the national debt

Maybe. But yet the national debt still increased over the 14 years you were in power. Massively.

What additional cuts would you have made to balance the budget and run a surplus?

I'd double council tax. That's the current deficit wiped out (nearly) in one go.

A freeze on hospital spending, abolish stamp duty, NICs/IT merger. Borrow as much for capital investment as the markets allow.

I honestly don't see the point in borrowing for capital investment when the cost of infrastructure is so high. We need to actually work to remove all of those barriers before we even think about that. Again, it just seems absolutely criminal to me that building a third runway at Heathrow will cost £49bn, even the short runway will come in at £21bn. This is just one example, there's suggestions that the next nuclear plant will be £70bn while Korea builds all of this similar infrastructure at a tenth of the cost. It's not as though their living standards are substantially different to ours.

It's not universally bad. We've had some good projects in Scotland. Queensferry Crossing came in under budget and on time. Small stuff, incremental stuff, tends to go ok.

I think you've fallen for the trap of thinking in terms of billions, not millions. The odd town bypass, new tram routes, a few million on cycle lanes, rail electrification, phone masts, a public health investment. That can add up to billions, but you've diversified across projects so that one disaster doesn't cause the whole investment to collapse.

Even with small projects, the process state still rears it’s ugly head.

Not very far from where I live the council decided to use some government money to build a cycle/pedestrian bridge over the river between two sites that are due for extensive redevelopment in the future. Cue outrage from local nimbies over the trauma caused by the need to cut down twelve trees. Twelve self-seeded trees that would grow back afterwards. So far we’ve had one judicial review, another in the works & the entire project has roughly doubled in cost due to all the delays.

The Aarhus Convention is a plague upon the nation.