Best Of

These from the president of the Kyiv school of economics:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1903794404520812694

Most people I know—Ukrainians, Americans, and my social media crowd—dislike or even hate Trump. They’re afraid he’ll cut a deal with Putin and sell out Ukraine.

I disagree. Trump could offer Ukraine a real chance to end the war.

The two are hardly mutually exclusive.

To conclude, there is of course an alternative - continue to put pressure on Russia and hope it will collapse. I think this is what Reagan did. But I don’t see any appetite for that between the US and Europe, although Europe is willing to go some on that direction.

But that might not be enough. If Russia collapses, it is due to its internal processes and political forces, but this is a risky strategy. And I don’t want to bet Ukraine’s future on that.

Russia's experience in Afghanistan puts a lie to that. It is perfectly possible for a 'superpower' (and Russia is hardly one of those any more) to be beaten in countries far poorer than Ukraine. Also witness the American experience in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Iraq.

Sadly, the sort of shite being spoken in the quotes above just gives Putin and Russia hope that their political shenanigans are working, where their military is failing.

Securing the best outcome for Ukraine doesn't seem to matter in this analysis. They are simply a proxy to inflict damage on Russia.

Russia invaded Ukraine. Peace through the defeat of Russia seems the best, and most ethical, result

Destruction of Russia's hydrocarbons industry can be achieved for the loss of very few Russians. The means exist within Ukraine, but could certainly be expedited by the use of German (and indeed, American) cruise missiles.

Without its hydrocarbons, Russia has no means to fund its war. Or indeed, feed its people.

They way to beat Russia:

1. destroy its oil and gas refining and storage facilities

2. wait for the economy to collapse - weeks, not months

3. offer the Russians financial assistance - as soon as the last of the Russians return to pre-2014 borders. And all the POWs are returned. And the stolen children too.

These from the president of the Kyiv school of economics:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1903794404520812694

Most people I know—Ukrainians, Americans, and my social media crowd—dislike or even hate Trump. They’re afraid he’ll cut a deal with Putin and sell out Ukraine.

I disagree. Trump could offer Ukraine a real chance to end the war.

The two are hardly mutually exclusive.

To conclude, there is of course an alternative - continue to put pressure on Russia and hope it will collapse. I think this is what Reagan did. But I don’t see any appetite for that between the US and Europe, although Europe is willing to go some on that direction.

But that might not be enough. If Russia collapses, it is due to its internal processes and political forces, but this is a risky strategy. And I don’t want to bet Ukraine’s future on that.

Worth quoting the middle passage you have missed out:

Everyone is afraid that Trump will sell Ukraine out, but I don’t think it will happen.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine will like the conditions of peace, but Ukraine will be able to move on and develop 9/

Ukraine is in a much better condition than Finland after the Soviets imposed reparations on it, political conditions, and took its territory. And Finland is a winner in that war because people in Finland today leave much better than in Russia 10/

So, this assumption that Trump will be able to secure conditions for Ukraine that will allow it to develop and stay independent is why I believe Trump is a better deal than Biden 11/

If this assumption is wrong, then, of course course, my analysis is wrong.

But what is true that there is no alternative to Trump now. There is no world in which Trump can be convinced, by words, to act differently.

I agree with that last point.

But his assumption is a nonsense. Trump doesn't care about Ukraine and he admires Putin as he admires Russia. All of his actions have either been designed to further Putin's agenda or so wilfully stupid even British Gas would fire him for incompetence.

The whole analysis is therefore, on his own admission, wrong. It's wishful thinking and smoke and mirrors. No wonder he's an economist.

Just delusional stuff if he thinks it unlikely Trump would sell out Ukraine.

And there's a clear alternative to Trump: Europe getting its act together.

Did you read his first five points?

1. The alternative - Biden’s strategy - has been more damaging for Ukraine

It focused on escalation management and failed. No path to victory, no path to peace. No talks with Putin. No timely sufficient weapons for a real counteroffensive

2.U.S. willingness to support Ukraine has been steadily declining

Even in 2024, under Biden, it was nearly impossible to pass the supplemental aid package. The drop in support is real—regardless of how unpopular that fact may be

3. The Ukraine mobilization problem is real

The casualty rates while significantly lower than in Russia are substantive. Ukraine is unwilling to sacrifice its people the way Russia can. It is exactly why it is different from Russia - Ukraine values life

4. The Ukraine immigration problem is real

Families split apart, in Ukraine and abroad. Some high human capital left. It is still possible for people to return, but another two-three years of war will force Ukrainian refugees integrate in Europe and elsewhere for good

5. The chances of post war economic recovery

As the war takes a bigger tall, it becomes more difficult to maintain the economy. The critical economic capabilities become eroded, making it more difficult and lengthier for Ukraine economy to rebuild after war

If you're going to keep shilling for Putin/Trump at least change your bloody avatar!

Would it be good if Ukraine could live peacefully and start to recover? Of course.

Would it have been better if Russia had never invaded? Of course.

Is the price of a part of a country subject to Russian domination, unable or not allowed to defend itself from its poisonous neighbour and without protection from further rapine too high a price to pay? Of course.

This war goes on until Russia is defeated or agrees to stop. Defeat means that their conventional forces are repelled, just as Hussein's were when he was thrown out of Kuwait. Only then will Ukraine be safe. Only then can we hope to recover their stolen children, their destroyed cities, their damaged power plants, their future.

It is our responsibility to do all we reasonably can to bring about that Russian defeat. For the sake of Ukraine, for the sake of peace in Europe and for the sake of our own security.

These from the president of the Kyiv school of economics:

https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1903794404520812694

Most people I know—Ukrainians, Americans, and my social media crowd—dislike or even hate Trump. They’re afraid he’ll cut a deal with Putin and sell out Ukraine.

I disagree. Trump could offer Ukraine a real chance to end the war.

The two are hardly mutually exclusive.

To conclude, there is of course an alternative - continue to put pressure on Russia and hope it will collapse. I think this is what Reagan did. But I don’t see any appetite for that between the US and Europe, although Europe is willing to go some on that direction.

But that might not be enough. If Russia collapses, it is due to its internal processes and political forces, but this is a risky strategy. And I don’t want to bet Ukraine’s future on that.

Worth quoting the middle passage you have missed out:

Everyone is afraid that Trump will sell Ukraine out, but I don’t think it will happen.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine will like the conditions of peace, but Ukraine will be able to move on and develop 9/

Ukraine is in a much better condition than Finland after the Soviets imposed reparations on it, political conditions, and took its territory. And Finland is a winner in that war because people in Finland today leave much better than in Russia 10/

So, this assumption that Trump will be able to secure conditions for Ukraine that will allow it to develop and stay independent is why I believe Trump is a better deal than Biden 11/

If this assumption is wrong, then, of course course, my analysis is wrong.

But what is true that there is no alternative to Trump now. There is no world in which Trump can be convinced, by words, to act differently.

I agree with that last point.

But his assumption is a nonsense. Trump doesn't care about Ukraine and he admires Putin as he admires Russia. All of his actions have either been designed to further Putin's agenda or so wilfully stupid even British Gas would fire him for incompetence.

The whole analysis is therefore, on his own admission, wrong. It's wishful thinking and smoke and mirrors. No wonder he's an economist.

Really shocking story in the ST today about Franchise colleges and the hundreds of millions that have been stolen for non existent students from Romania in the main signing on to get student loans and, of course, grants which are then shared between the colleges, the lead Universities and the providers of the students.

The scale of it is almost beyond belief. Those involved in both the franchise colleges and indeed in the Universities have surely acted illegally and dishonestly. Hundreds of them really need to go to jail and the franchise colleges involved need to be closed. What this does to a sector already struggling, god alone knows.

I don't have an electronic account but for those that do: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/revealed-colleges-student-loans-fraud-pd7wlgb3v

Full piece:
https://archive.is/20250323103854/https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/revealed-colleges-student-loans-fraud-pd7wlgb3v

This paragraph almost sums it up:

"Leaked government figures show that the number of Romanian nationals living in the UK applying for a student loan increased from 5,000 in 2015-16 to 84,000 in 2023-24, suggesting 15 per cent of the Romanian population in Britain was paid a student loan last year."

We are being taken for fools and a corrupt public sector is just looking the other way.

BTW, that 15% suggests that there are currently 560k Romanians living in the UK. I mean, how?

We can't afford scams like this anymore.

Speaker Mike Johnson

@SpeakerJohnson
The House is working overtime to limit the abuses of activist federal judges. Our @JudiciaryGOP
will expose the worst offenders in a high profile hearing & we are preparing urgent legislative action, like the @repdarrellissa bill to stop unfounded nationwide injunctions.

https://x.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1903529228085109157

My periodic check: are we agreed the USA is becoming a dictatorship yet, or is the - um -jury still out?

Yes, it is so becoming; that is the intention. The jury is not still out. The jury is still out about outcomes. Remaining questions include:

Is the intention a continuing 'elected' dictatorship or a rigged/non elected one?

Will the SCOTUS intervene decisively, and if so will their judgment be enforced?

Will there be an enforced clamp down on the jurisdiction of the courts?

Will the, fairly wide, degree of free speech (under intimidation) and free media be allowed to continue?

Will there be a 'Reichstag Fire' event?

Will there be a counter-coup?

(So far this is all at the very worst end of my expectations).

Is the Trump administration doing anything that would be unconstitutional for a newly-elected majority government in Britain?

Yes.

What's the clearest example of this?

Sacking people without due process.

And without notice and/or action by Congress where explicitly required by legislation

Terminating funding voted by Congress without authorisation (which I suppose is linked).

Edit - empowering improperly appointed persons to seize and/or destroy government files.

I don't know why you peeps bother. I just assume that @williamglenn lives in St Petersburg and has no experience of how the rule of law is supposed to work in a democracy. Has zero understanding of democracy either - the other day he claimed Germany isn't a democracy because the AfD aren't part of the government.

You'd really have to start at the kindergarten level with this fool, not that they have any interest in answers to all the "questions" they ask. You'd have to start by saying that even though the United Kingdom and the United States both begin with the same word, they are actually different countries with different constitutions. But it's a waste of time with this troll.

And yet you seem obsessed with fairly foul mouthed rants instead of argument. This just demeans the site I'm afraid .

Wait until you start reading Leon's posts.

People read Leon's posts?

Not great this from Elon Musk

https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1903648999283782011?s=61

What will happen to Democratic candidates’ accounts as we approach the US midterms?

The "titans of free speech" who had the nerve to come to Europe and lecture us. It is just sickening to observe the maga hypocrisy.

And yes, the mid-terms are going to be a nail biter when it comes to the prospects for constitutional democracy vs authoritarianism in the US. I think it is 50/50 between overriding and supreme court decision and tanking the midterms as the definitive moment. I mean ignoring court orders on deportation due process is bad enough. But I think the other two will be the flash point for a serious crisis in America.

A thread I have planned is that the crisis could come much sooner than the mid terms.

With special elections/defection it is possible the Dems take control of the House this year.

I would like to believe this but with the Democrats even less popular than the Republicans right now, I'm doubtful.

Unpopular for being supine.

Those speaking out like Bernie and AOC are getting vast support.

AOC would be a great president, assuming that there are further US elections.

What would make her a good president ?

Her unwavering support for Senile Joe:

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez reaffirmed her commitment to President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee on Monday evening amid heightened tensions within the party over his mental fitness.

“Joe Biden is our nominee, he is not leaving this race, he is in this race and I support him,” Ocasio-Cortez told a group of reporters outside of the Capitol.

The New York rep’s assertion comes as Democratic lawmakers scramble to find consensus on whether or not to support Biden, 81, as the presidential nominee.

At least six House Democrats have publicly called for the president to withdraw from the race following his disappointing and concerning debate performance at the end of June. The president’s failure to confidently debate his political opponent has led to concerns that he is not well enough to run a campaign or defeat Donald Trump.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/aoc-backing-biden-democratic-nominee-b2576756.html

Wait till you see the list of people offering unwavering support to Trump.

Not great this from Elon Musk

https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1903648999283782011?s=61

What will happen to Democratic candidates’ accounts as we approach the US midterms?

The "titans of free speech" who had the nerve to come to Europe and lecture us. It is just sickening to observe the maga hypocrisy.

And yes, the mid-terms are going to be a nail biter when it comes to the prospects for constitutional democracy vs authoritarianism in the US. I think it is 50/50 between overriding and supreme court decision and tanking the midterms as the definitive moment. I mean ignoring court orders on deportation due process is bad enough. But I think the other two will be the flash point for a serious crisis in America.

A thread I have planned is that the crisis could come much sooner than the mid terms.

With special elections/defection it is possible the Dems take control of the House this year.

I would like to believe this but with the Democrats even less popular than the Republicans right now, I'm doubtful.

Unpopular for being supine.

Those speaking out like Bernie and AOC are getting vast support.

AOC would be a great president, assuming that there are further US elections.

What would make her a good president ?

I'm no fan at all of AOC but she couldn't possibly be as bad as this one. Even if she can be just as arrogant she is at least possessed of a functioning brain.

I know little of her aside from the more superficial stuff. I don’t think the ‘she can’t be any worse’ argument cuts it really. She could easily.

I think it would be particularly hard to be more malevolent and inimical to democracy or Western interests than Trump. Not easy at all.

A typical lightweight and insubstantive Lib Dem response.

Ask a serious question, expect a reasonable answer. Get the equivalent of a drunk vomiting. FFS.

He's right, though.

AOC may well not run America well if given the chance. But there's zero evidence that she will do anything but work within the rules of American democracy. When push comes to shove (and it's much better if it doesn't), that's all that matters.