Best Of
Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
Starmer appoints Rishi Sunak’s wife as V&A trusteeA big part of being a trustee for the big museums is publicity and fund raising.
Akshata Murty joins Mariella Frostrup and Vick Hope among new museum appointees
...
Meanwhile, Sir Keir has also approved several new appointments at the British Museum... Its new trustees include Claudia Winkleman, the presenter of the popular television programme The Traitors, along with Martha Kearney, presenter of BBC Radio 4’s The World at One, and Tom Holland, the historian.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/24/starmer-appoints-rishi-sunak-wife-v-and-a-trustee-murty-uk/ (£££)
Turns out it is not just President Trump who only appoints people he has seen on telly.
Mrs Sunak will be able to run a pretty fair bake sale.
Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
Second posting
Hello everybody. I've uploaded an essay wot I wrote called "The Matter Of Britain" on the evolution of the nation-state since the Dark Ages. @rcs1000 and @TheScreamingEagles are aware. It is about 1600 words and is within the @ydoethur limit. If the mods agree I'm hoping for a publication for next Sunday. If anybody wants to be a pre-reader just click on "like" and I'll send you a link.
Hello everybody. I've uploaded an essay wot I wrote called "The Matter Of Britain" on the evolution of the nation-state since the Dark Ages. @rcs1000 and @TheScreamingEagles are aware. It is about 1600 words and is within the @ydoethur limit. If the mods agree I'm hoping for a publication for next Sunday. If anybody wants to be a pre-reader just click on "like" and I'll send you a link.

11
Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
I think Vance wants to be hailed as some sort of 'philosopher prince'.He also hates immigration and multiculturalism while being married to the daughter of Indian immigrants. He seems to be quite a conflicted individual.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/25/stunning-signal-leak-reveals-depths-of-trump-administrations-loathing-of-europeVance seems to simultaneously hate his own background and hate the world he has joined.
The weird thing about this regime is that the more they proclaim a white, Christian, European vision of America, the more they hate Europe. There must be some kind of psychology thesis to be written about this.
His writings (see the one that was linked to recently about his conversion to Catholicism) seem to show a need to boast about what he has achieved and what he knows.
More generally Washington resembles a Tudor court more than a modern government.
Trump has all the insecure, grandiose, erratic narcissism of late stage Henry VIII.
Mike Pence / Thomas More as the former favourite who chose his conscience over his master orders.
Vance as the Thomas Cromwell figure - low born and talented but always looked down on by those born to privilege.
The likes of Musk, Rubio, Hegseth scheming for position as the Howards, Seymours and such like did.
There's even a weak ineffective legislature and a threatened judicial system.
Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
Pete Hegseth: “Under the previous administration, we looked like fools. Not anymore.”We don’t look like fools. We are fools.
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1904241328407580875

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Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
More Trump impacts.
Most Scots want to keep UK’s nuclear deterrent, poll shows
Support to retain the Clyde-based weapons is even strong among supporters of the SNP, which wants unilateral disarmament
A majority of Scots believe that Britain should keep its nuclear arsenal amid calls for the SNP to reconsider its historic demand for unilateral disarmament.
A poll has found that 56 per cent believe the UK should retain its independent nuclear deterrent, compared with 22 per cent who think it should be given up.
The SNP has long campaigned for Britain to unconditionally relinquish its Trident nuclear submarines, which are based on the Clyde (the Royal Navy’s headquarters in Scotland), arguing that they are both financially and morally wrong.
However, Ian Blackford, the party’s former Westminster leader, recently became the first senior nationalist to break ranks, citing Russian aggression and uncertainty over President Trump’s commitment to European defence.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-people-back-nuclear-deterrent-uk-snp-7kjm7kp2s
Most Scots want to keep UK’s nuclear deterrent, poll shows
Support to retain the Clyde-based weapons is even strong among supporters of the SNP, which wants unilateral disarmament
A majority of Scots believe that Britain should keep its nuclear arsenal amid calls for the SNP to reconsider its historic demand for unilateral disarmament.
A poll has found that 56 per cent believe the UK should retain its independent nuclear deterrent, compared with 22 per cent who think it should be given up.
The SNP has long campaigned for Britain to unconditionally relinquish its Trident nuclear submarines, which are based on the Clyde (the Royal Navy’s headquarters in Scotland), arguing that they are both financially and morally wrong.
However, Ian Blackford, the party’s former Westminster leader, recently became the first senior nationalist to break ranks, citing Russian aggression and uncertainty over President Trump’s commitment to European defence.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-people-back-nuclear-deterrent-uk-snp-7kjm7kp2s
Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
Morning all 
To re-iterate, as some of the more frequent posters don't seem to either know or understand politics that well, the key polling numbers in Canada aren't the nationwide ones but the regional ones.
Canada, for all it is a vast country, is quite concentrated demographically - of the 338 ridings which make up the Parliament, nearly 200 are in Ontario and Quebec. The other marginal area is British Columbia but the prairie states (Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) will likely retain mostly Conservatives while the Atlantic coastal provinces return mostly Liberals.
In Quebec, you obviously have Bloc Quebecois to consider.
The only recent regional polling is in Nova Scotia which returns just 11 MPs - last time it split 8 Liberal and 3 Conservatives. The latest poll (from March 20th) has the Liberals up by four points on the 2021 result and the Conservatives up eight so a net 2% swing to the Tories. The NDP are down ten points.
IF we see similar nationally, you'd expect a Conservative lead of about five points but the latest Angus Reid has an eight point Liberal lead. The Conservatives need to be doing well in Ontario in particular which elected 78 Liberals and 37 Conservatives but there's been no recent polling. Any Liberal progress in Ontario and Quebec means Carney wins to be blunt. The Conservatives do themselves little good piling up votes in Alberta (30 of 34 seats) and Saskatchewan (all 14 seats).
The battlegrounds are Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia which have 243 of the 338 ridings - polls from those regions are what anyone looking to have a bet on this election should be analysing as well as any individual riding polling.

To re-iterate, as some of the more frequent posters don't seem to either know or understand politics that well, the key polling numbers in Canada aren't the nationwide ones but the regional ones.
Canada, for all it is a vast country, is quite concentrated demographically - of the 338 ridings which make up the Parliament, nearly 200 are in Ontario and Quebec. The other marginal area is British Columbia but the prairie states (Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) will likely retain mostly Conservatives while the Atlantic coastal provinces return mostly Liberals.
In Quebec, you obviously have Bloc Quebecois to consider.
The only recent regional polling is in Nova Scotia which returns just 11 MPs - last time it split 8 Liberal and 3 Conservatives. The latest poll (from March 20th) has the Liberals up by four points on the 2021 result and the Conservatives up eight so a net 2% swing to the Tories. The NDP are down ten points.
IF we see similar nationally, you'd expect a Conservative lead of about five points but the latest Angus Reid has an eight point Liberal lead. The Conservatives need to be doing well in Ontario in particular which elected 78 Liberals and 37 Conservatives but there's been no recent polling. Any Liberal progress in Ontario and Quebec means Carney wins to be blunt. The Conservatives do themselves little good piling up votes in Alberta (30 of 34 seats) and Saskatchewan (all 14 seats).
The battlegrounds are Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia which have 243 of the 338 ridings - polls from those regions are what anyone looking to have a bet on this election should be analysing as well as any individual riding polling.
9
Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
The BBC is giving wall to wall coverage of the security lapse farce. And this is OK. But it doesn't tell us anything at all we didn't know before but merely confirms what we thought about their character and competence.
But the BBC continues to give relatively scant attention to the big story: USA has switched sides, and USA is becoming a rogue state both externally and internally.
But the BBC continues to give relatively scant attention to the big story: USA has switched sides, and USA is becoming a rogue state both externally and internally.
Re: The Canadian petri dish – politicalbetting.com
Not very Betfair to have left this market so late... No chance of a betting coup now...I got 10/1 on a Liberal next government for Canada on Betfair, back on the first day of Trump's tariff announcement, but I think they later closed off that bet?
R4 have a good documentary on the modern gambling industry, though yet to talk about FOBT and laundering

6
Re: Labour are starting to own the economy – politicalbetting.com
A senior administration official told POLITICO the White House isn’t sure if Mike Waltz can survive as national security adviser after The Atlantic's bombshell report.They're all idiots, they all took part in a discussion that should not have been conducted on Signal and none of them tried to close it down.
"Half of them saying he’s never going to survive or shouldn’t survive," the official said. "It was reckless not to check who was on the thread. It was reckless to be having that conversation on Signal. You can’t have recklessness as the national security adviser."
A person close to the White House was even more blunt: “Everyone in the White House can agree on one thing: Mike Waltz is a fucking idiot"
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1904331181820199139
And compared with Hegseth, he's the smart guy.
The implications is that this is "business as usual", that govt is being done via a commercial app not official communication channels. The obvious reason for that is they don't want an official record of their discussions.
I reckon we'll see the US gaslit and that no one will go due to this... Let's see what WG starts reposting.
Re: Labour are starting to own the economy – politicalbetting.com
Ed Davey
@EdwardJDavey
·
1h
JD Vance and his mates clearly aren’t fit to run a group chat, let alone the world’s strongest military force. It has to make our security services nervous about the intelligence we’re sharing with them.
@EdwardJDavey
·
1h
JD Vance and his mates clearly aren’t fit to run a group chat, let alone the world’s strongest military force. It has to make our security services nervous about the intelligence we’re sharing with them.