Best Of

One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.

Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight

I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.

Anecdote - Why is the Tory party so full of shits and wankers?

One of my students works in a Bath hotel. Played host to the local Tory party Christmas do. Poor behaviour all round - called a member of staff 'a retard'.

That's one student never voting Tory.

Not excusing the behaviour of the member who used 'retard' as an insult but that student was clearly anti Tory beforehand i suspect and would never have voted Tory anyway. Bath is also a seat the Tories failed to even win in 2019 when they won a landslide UK wide

You have zero evidence for the bit in bold. Zero. The student brought the story up un prompted when he saw me today.

Of course I do, he was asked to serve at a Tory do so I suspect was looking for any bad behaviour in a way he probably wouldn't at a standard corporate do. So latched onto one Tory member's rude comment (which was standard banter in most schools sadly when I was growing up) and a comment made by probably less than 1% of attendees and then has endlessly whinged about it to you.

Has he voted Tory at all in the last 10 years? if not, I rest my case!

If he's a student he's probably only be able to vote for a couple of years.

Since he has been able to vote 90% likely he voted Labour or Green

Or LD if he's a Bath resident.

Incidentally, Mr HYUFD, how is your wife doing these days? Coming to terms with the situation I hope.

Anecdote - Why is the Tory party so full of shits and wankers?

One of my students works in a Bath hotel. Played host to the local Tory party Christmas do. Poor behaviour all round - called a member of staff 'a retard'.

That's one student never voting Tory.

Not excusing the behaviour of the member who used 'retard' as an insult but that student was clearly anti Tory beforehand i suspect and would never have voted Tory anyway. Bath is also a seat the Tories failed to even win in 2019 when they won a landslide UK wide

You have zero evidence for the bit in bold. Zero. The student brought the story up un prompted when he saw me today.

Of course I do, he was asked to serve at a Tory do so I suspect was looking for any bad behaviour in a way he probably wouldn't at a standard corporate do. So latched onto one Tory member's rude comment (which was standard banter in most schools sadly when I was growing up) and a comment made by probably less than 1% of attendees and then has endlessly whinged about it to you.

Has he voted Tory at all in the last 10 years? if not, I rest my case!

If he's a student he's probably only be able to vote for a couple of years.

Since he has been able to vote 90% likely he voted Labour or Green

Or LD if he's a Bath resident.

Incidentally, Mr HYUFD, how is your wife doing these days? Coming to terms with the situation I hope.

Or LD but only as a tactical vote, she is managing, on leave until January, thanks for asking

Anecdote - Why is the Tory party so full of shits and wankers?

One of my students works in a Bath hotel. Played host to the local Tory party Christmas do. Poor behaviour all round - called a member of staff 'a retard'.

That's one student never voting Tory.

Not excusing the behaviour of the member who used 'retard' as an insult but that student was clearly anti Tory beforehand i suspect and would never have voted Tory anyway. Bath is also a seat the Tories failed to even win in 2019 when they won a landslide UK wide

You have zero evidence for the bit in bold. Zero. The student brought the story up un prompted when he saw me today.

Of course I do, he was asked to serve at a Tory do so I suspect was looking for any bad behaviour in a way he probably wouldn't at a standard corporate do. So latched onto one Tory member's rude comment (which was standard banter in most schools sadly when I was growing up) and a comment made by probably less than 1% of attendees and then has endlessly whinged about it to you.

Has he voted Tory at all in the last 10 years? if not, I rest my case!

If he's a student he's probably only be able to vote for a couple of years.

Since he has been able to vote 90% likely he voted Labour or Green

Or LD if he's a Bath resident.

Incidentally, Mr HYUFD, how is your wife doing these days? Coming to terms with the situation I hope.

Or LD but only as a tactical vote, she is managing, on leave until January, thanks for asking

Best wishes to you both, HY. Conscious that Christmas may be a challenging time for you.

Thanks. Yes, we are just having a quiet one this year in Dartmoor

One never gets over the loss of a child. Even when, as in our case the 'child' was an adult, with children of her own!