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After Covid , and Ukraine the world was hoping for less drama . Instead we got Trump again , Netenyahus genocide and now a possibility that things unravel further after the US got involved with Iran.

If the Straits of Hormuz are shut then oil prices will spike causing a further hit to growth and spiking inflation .

Trump seems to be actively working against the UK and yet the country is expected to roll out the red carpet for another state visit !

Iranian Parliament has voted to close it.

Final decision with Khamenei

The economic havoc it will wreak will be worth it to keep Bibi out of jail 👍

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1936787351620985340?s=61

It’s not obvious why or even how they shut it

1. It’s the main route for Iranian oil exports - so it is economically self-harming even as the regime totters. Dangerous

2. It will antagonise every other country in the area. esp Gulf States, plus Saudi, etc

3. It won’t hurt America much. America doesn’t need gulf oil

Iran is impotent and defenceless right now

Because the price of gas is literally the only weapon anyone has which works on the USA.

But it’s much less of a weapon now America is energy self-sufficient. It will hurt other oil importing countries - Europe, China - a lot more

I'm afraid this is not correct.

America is self sufficient in theory, but in reality they import a massive amount of Canadian oil. Effectively, Canadian heavy oil comes into the US, while US light oil is exported to Europe.

So, why would the Canadians export their oil at less than market rates to the US? If oil prices spike, then America can either pay market rates, or they'll export it to China, Korea and Japan by tanker instead.

Because America will tell Canada what to do

It's not in the hands of the Canadian government. Energy companies are private companies beholden to their shareholders.

And one of Canada's largest - Husky Energy - is ultimately Chinese owned.

In normal times you might have a point. These are not normal times and Trump is not a normal president. He would bully Canada into submission

How did the US bullying Canada over tariffs work?

Do you think there are many votes in Canada for taking the knee to Trump?

Trump has just shown he is willing to go further than any president before. Directly bombing Iran

I can see him being fairly brutal with Canada and in the end Canada, being a tenth the size of the USA, would yield

You talk about this stuff like it's Civ VI. Attempting to force the Canadians to nationalise their oil and export to the US at below market rates is not going to have the effect on the US economy you assume.

But there’s a thousand ways America can put really intolerable pressure on Canada - if it is so minded. Until now it’s been unthinkable because no president has “thought” like Trump

It doesn’t need the Marines parachuting into Winnipeg

And there's a thousand ways that Canada can return the favour - by turning off the electricity supply to Michigan for a start.

After Covid , and Ukraine the world was hoping for less drama . Instead we got Trump again , Netenyahus genocide and now a possibility that things unravel further after the US got involved with Iran.

If the Straits of Hormuz are shut then oil prices will spike causing a further hit to growth and spiking inflation .

Trump seems to be actively working against the UK and yet the country is expected to roll out the red carpet for another state visit !

Iranian Parliament has voted to close it.

Final decision with Khamenei

The economic havoc it will wreak will be worth it to keep Bibi out of jail 👍

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1936787351620985340?s=61

It’s not obvious why or even how they shut it

1. It’s the main route for Iranian oil exports - so it is economically self-harming even as the regime totters. Dangerous

2. It will antagonise every other country in the area. esp Gulf States, plus Saudi, etc

3. It won’t hurt America much. America doesn’t need gulf oil

Iran is impotent and defenceless right now

Because the price of gas is literally the only weapon anyone has which works on the USA.

But it’s much less of a weapon now America is energy self-sufficient. It will hurt other oil importing countries - Europe, China - a lot more

I'm afraid this is not correct.

America is self sufficient in theory, but in reality they import a massive amount of Canadian oil. Effectively, Canadian heavy oil comes into the US, while US light oil is exported to Europe.

So, why would the Canadians export their oil at less than market rates to the US? If oil prices spike, then America can either pay market rates, or they'll export it to China, Korea and Japan by tanker instead.

Because America will tell Canada what to do

It's not in the hands of the Canadian government. Energy companies are private companies beholden to their shareholders.

And one of Canada's largest - Husky Energy - is ultimately Chinese owned.

In normal times you might have a point. These are not normal times and Trump is not a normal president. He would bully Canada into submission

How did the US bullying Canada over tariffs work?

Do you think there are many votes in Canada for taking the knee to Trump?

Trump has just shown he is willing to go further than any president before. Directly bombing Iran

I can see him being fairly brutal with Canada and in the end Canada, being a tenth the size of the USA, would yield

The Canadian government is not going to legislate to nationalise the entire oil and gas industry in Canada to enable Trump to keep petrol prices low.

Just a few months ago, the Conservative Premier of Ontatio - Doug Ford - was threatening to turn the electricity supply off to Michigan over the Trump tariffs.

Trump can bluster and threaten all he wants, but countries and politicians have "face". The more you threaten, the less likely they are to acede to your wishes.

If Trump had wanted Canada onside, he would have been much better off being nice to them. Because right now, there are substantially fewer than zero votes in getting down and sucking Trump's cock.

Why are you so busily bayoneting a straw man?

I never said morally Trump *should* do this or that, nor did I dispute that it’s generally better to be nice than nasty. I’m just saying Trump is Sui generis and he’s proven he’s not TACO POTUS after all

If he wants to force Canada to its knees he can do it. And Canada would surrender

And that is simply incorrect.

Because Canada can turn off the pumping stations on Keystone, and can stop sending electricity to the US.

That would send petrol prices shooting up in the US, and cast much of northern Michigan into darkness.

The US is not the only country with agency.

On the subject of crime, the problem is not the lack of harshness of punishment, it is that criminals don't think they're going to get caught, prosecuted, tried and convicted.

You can literally torture convicted shoplifters to death, but if said shoplifter reckons there is basically zero chance that they will ever end up actually facing punishment, then it's irrelevant.

The criminal justice system under the Conservative and coalition govnerments completely fell apart. Police stations were closed. Legal aid was cut to a level such that many trials simply don't happen, because there's noone there to represent the accused, meaning that the the court has wasted their time. And even when trials do actually happen, they are years and years after the alleged offence making witnesses memories unreliable, if they can even be found.

Justice perpetually delayed, is justice denied.

There is literally nothing that would have greater payback for the UK than properly funding all parts of the criminal justice system: police, courts and prisons. Yet, in our dumb ass desire to keep pensioners happy, we fuck up the country.

I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')

The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.

I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?

TASER THEM

I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.

No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment

You call people Centrist Dad often, but really you are a Centrist Grandad. You want to go back to the 1950s all the time. Latest being corporal punishment? Really? What with your other views you really are like the 90+ year old one meets who talk about the good old days.

The thing about my suggestion is: it will work. It’s cheap, powerful, effective. And anyway, why is inflicting mental and social pain - prison - deemed acceptable, but inflicting physical pain is not?

It’s ludicrous. Prison is also expensive and breeds even harder criminals. So taser them. We’d sort this out in a weak

While bleating midwits like you just sigh and wring your hands about this, offer no solution, and nothing happens

It will work? Ever heard of the birch? Did that work?

Probably

Then I suggest you read the research.

Singapore has capital and corporal punishment and zero crime

Never been there but it sounds a super place. Yet it doesn't please everyone.

Number One Son has a beautiful Singaporean partner. She prefers to live in Manchester.

How do you figure that?

Fewer immigrants in Manchester. Singapore is absolutely full of them.

Manchester has rather a lot of immigrants too.

But, OTTOMH, ten reasons why Manchester is better than Singapore:

1) The weather. Singapore is hot and humid. It doesn't ALWAYS drizzle in Manchester.
2) The beer is better.
3) Manchester is a better night out than Singapore.
4) Our surrounding countryside is better, even taking into account Singapore's beach options.
5) British suburbia, while unfashionable, is an agreeable and convenient way to live.
6) While I only have the haziest idea of Asianwork culture, it sounds a tad demanding. By comparison, your work/life balance in Manchester is almost Scandinavian.
7) All of the hundreds of little things which make life in Britain so appealing: pubs, strawberry jam, good quality crisps, 6 music, the font on our road signs, garden centres, etc.
8) Living in Lancashire is like living in a Peter Kay sketch. Always funny, sometimes deliberately.
9) Cricket
10) I reckon British schools offer a more enjoyable and well-rounded experience than Singaporean ones.

There is much about Britain which is frustrating - 75% of which I would characterise as *grot*. But there's a lot about living in Britain which is agreeable.

(Cookie has never been to Asia)

Tice:

https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1936403403116077166

My concern here is the rush to a precooked judgement, rather than a desire to know what happened and why.

Being Staish of a mega station like Brize is essentially running a vast bureaucracy so she's probably better qualified than most her peers.

The RAF 'management structure' for officers is weird and quite poor for developing senior leaders. They go from having no direct subordinates (they might take operational lead of a 4 a/c flight on a mission) to commanding a squadron where they might have to supervise 100+ people.

Tice, as might be expected, is being a c-nt over this. But being a Fukker is all about presenting simplistic causes of complex problems for the eager consumption of chubby morons so, in that sense, mission accomplished.