Best Of

“Just came back from a large birthday party full of very wealthy people.

Nearly all of them are leaving the U.K.

All for the exact same two reasons.

Too much tax and too many migrants.”

https://x.com/kezia_noble/status/1936768025761358176?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

London property is about to crater

Perfect timing.

I'm excited.

You heading back to the UK Robert?

Not immediately. But in the next couple of years, yes.

I love LA. But I love London more.

Good time to come back. For all that I detest the current Government and its predecessors, the country is nowhere near as screwed as poor old Leon likes to make out and I am actually reasonably optimistic. Indeed by my reckoning he has been predicting the final collapse of the UK for as long as he and I have been posting on here - which is a scarily long time.

This is utter bollocks

You have been proclaiming the end of the UK and all manner of disasters for the last 20 years or more. None of which have come to pass. You being wrong about this has been one of the most predictable features of this site for almost as long as it has run.

After Covid , and Ukraine the world was hoping for less drama . Instead we got Trump again , Netenyahus genocide and now a possibility that things unravel further after the US got involved with Iran.

If the Straits of Hormuz are shut then oil prices will spike causing a further hit to growth and spiking inflation .

Trump seems to be actively working against the UK and yet the country is expected to roll out the red carpet for another state visit !

Iranian Parliament has voted to close it.

Final decision with Khamenei

The economic havoc it will wreak will be worth it to keep Bibi out of jail 👍

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1936787351620985340?s=61

It’s not obvious why or even how they shut it

1. It’s the main route for Iranian oil exports - so it is economically self-harming even as the regime totters. Dangerous

2. It will antagonise every other country in the area. esp Gulf States, plus Saudi, etc

3. It won’t hurt America much. America doesn’t need gulf oil

Iran is impotent and defenceless right now

Because the price of gas is literally the only weapon anyone has which works on the USA.

But it’s much less of a weapon now America is energy self-sufficient. It will hurt other oil importing countries - Europe, China - a lot more

I'm afraid this is not correct.

America is self sufficient in theory, but in reality they import a massive amount of Canadian oil. Effectively, Canadian heavy oil comes into the US, while US light oil is exported to Europe.

So, why would the Canadians export their oil at less than market rates to the US? If oil prices spike, then America can either pay market rates, or they'll export it to China, Korea and Japan by tanker instead.

Because America will tell Canada what to do

It's not in the hands of the Canadian government. Energy companies are private companies beholden to their shareholders.

And one of Canada's largest - Husky Energy - is ultimately Chinese owned.

In normal times you might have a point. These are not normal times and Trump is not a normal president. He would bully Canada into submission

How did the US bullying Canada over tariffs work?

Do you think there are many votes in Canada for taking the knee to Trump?

Trump has just shown he is willing to go further than any president before. Directly bombing Iran

I can see him being fairly brutal with Canada and in the end Canada, being a tenth the size of the USA, would yield

You talk about this stuff like it's Civ VI. Attempting to force the Canadians to nationalise their oil and export to the US at below market rates is not going to have the effect on the US economy you assume.

But there’s a thousand ways America can put really intolerable pressure on Canada - if it is so minded. Until now it’s been unthinkable because no president has “thought” like Trump

It doesn’t need the Marines parachuting into Winnipeg

And there's a thousand ways that Canada can return the favour - by turning off the electricity supply to Michigan for a start.

After Covid , and Ukraine the world was hoping for less drama . Instead we got Trump again , Netenyahus genocide and now a possibility that things unravel further after the US got involved with Iran.

If the Straits of Hormuz are shut then oil prices will spike causing a further hit to growth and spiking inflation .

Trump seems to be actively working against the UK and yet the country is expected to roll out the red carpet for another state visit !

Iranian Parliament has voted to close it.

Final decision with Khamenei

The economic havoc it will wreak will be worth it to keep Bibi out of jail 👍

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1936787351620985340?s=61

It’s not obvious why or even how they shut it

1. It’s the main route for Iranian oil exports - so it is economically self-harming even as the regime totters. Dangerous

2. It will antagonise every other country in the area. esp Gulf States, plus Saudi, etc

3. It won’t hurt America much. America doesn’t need gulf oil

Iran is impotent and defenceless right now

Because the price of gas is literally the only weapon anyone has which works on the USA.

But it’s much less of a weapon now America is energy self-sufficient. It will hurt other oil importing countries - Europe, China - a lot more

I'm afraid this is not correct.

America is self sufficient in theory, but in reality they import a massive amount of Canadian oil. Effectively, Canadian heavy oil comes into the US, while US light oil is exported to Europe.

So, why would the Canadians export their oil at less than market rates to the US? If oil prices spike, then America can either pay market rates, or they'll export it to China, Korea and Japan by tanker instead.

Because America will tell Canada what to do

It's not in the hands of the Canadian government. Energy companies are private companies beholden to their shareholders.

And one of Canada's largest - Husky Energy - is ultimately Chinese owned.

In normal times you might have a point. These are not normal times and Trump is not a normal president. He would bully Canada into submission

How did the US bullying Canada over tariffs work?

Do you think there are many votes in Canada for taking the knee to Trump?

Trump has just shown he is willing to go further than any president before. Directly bombing Iran

I can see him being fairly brutal with Canada and in the end Canada, being a tenth the size of the USA, would yield

The Canadian government is not going to legislate to nationalise the entire oil and gas industry in Canada to enable Trump to keep petrol prices low.

Just a few months ago, the Conservative Premier of Ontatio - Doug Ford - was threatening to turn the electricity supply off to Michigan over the Trump tariffs.

Trump can bluster and threaten all he wants, but countries and politicians have "face". The more you threaten, the less likely they are to acede to your wishes.

If Trump had wanted Canada onside, he would have been much better off being nice to them. Because right now, there are substantially fewer than zero votes in getting down and sucking Trump's cock.

Why are you so busily bayoneting a straw man?

I never said morally Trump *should* do this or that, nor did I dispute that it’s generally better to be nice than nasty. I’m just saying Trump is Sui generis and he’s proven he’s not TACO POTUS after all

If he wants to force Canada to its knees he can do it. And Canada would surrender

And that is simply incorrect.

Because Canada can turn off the pumping stations on Keystone, and can stop sending electricity to the US.

That would send petrol prices shooting up in the US, and cast much of northern Michigan into darkness.

The US is not the only country with agency.

On the subject of crime, the problem is not the lack of harshness of punishment, it is that criminals don't think they're going to get caught, prosecuted, tried and convicted.

You can literally torture convicted shoplifters to death, but if said shoplifter reckons there is basically zero chance that they will ever end up actually facing punishment, then it's irrelevant.

The criminal justice system under the Conservative and coalition govnerments completely fell apart. Police stations were closed. Legal aid was cut to a level such that many trials simply don't happen, because there's noone there to represent the accused, meaning that the the court has wasted their time. And even when trials do actually happen, they are years and years after the alleged offence making witnesses memories unreliable, if they can even be found.

Justice perpetually delayed, is justice denied.

There is literally nothing that would have greater payback for the UK than properly funding all parts of the criminal justice system: police, courts and prisons. Yet, in our dumb ass desire to keep pensioners happy, we fuck up the country.