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Re: Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
Not long after I was diagnosed with high-functioning autism - more than two decades ago now - I was told that I could claim for Disability Living Allowance (which PIP replaced).What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)I disagree, for personal reasonsShame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leaderMorning all.Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war!
108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
It's possible to construct a logical argument that my life is more difficult than a normal person's as a result of being autistic (and therefore would qualify), but I took (and take) the view that it wasn't so much more difficult that I wanted to go through the process of persuading someone that I was mentally disabled and incapable enough to require financial assistance from the state. There has to be a threshold somewhere, and it surely shouldn't be so low that I would qualify.
It might be that the large percentage increases (most likely from a low base) are due to people being encouraged to claim in similar circumstances, with improved diagnosis of young women with high-functioning autism or other conditions that are moderately debilitating.
FWIW, my wife also never made a claim, despite her condition (hypermobile EDS) preventing her from working, because we've been able to live off my income, and making a claim felt like it would take more effort than she had, which she'd rather use for something more enjoyable.
The system seems to be simultaneously too difficult for many genuinely needy to claim, and yet paying out to a credulity-straining number of people.
Re: Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
Um, it's growth statistics. Growth from 10 to 30 is an increase of 200%, but growth from 1,000,000 to 1,100,000 is an increase of 10%. You need to know the absolute change as well as the relative change.What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)I disagree, for personal reasonsShame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leaderMorning all.Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war!
108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
viewcode
7
Re: Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
I'd be a DK, DK, and stay out of it.Well, I think we need a bit of context here before we accept that the UK is a small and weak state.
Not to say the rationale for action isn't there, but we're a small country with few resources, little influence and huge debt. Countries like that need to sing small and it doesn't necessarily rule out an 'honest broker' role at some point.
Good morning, everybody.
In a world of 193 nation states, The UK has the sixth largest economy in the world. Britain has internationally respected armed forces, including a significant nuclear arsenal, and it is a major player in NATO. It is a permanent member of the United Nations security council.
In terms of largest government debt, British public debt per capita is well behind Japan, the US, Canada, France, Ireland and Italy and not radically worse than Germany,
In terms of soft power, the English Language is the most widely spoken in the world, British regulations in shipping, insurance, finance, are generally adopted internationally, British pop music is arguably the most listened to across the planet.
Admittedly we have allowed ourselves to be overshadowed by the United States, but objectively the UK is not insignificant. I take your point that we still have convening power, but we also have kinetic power, although we would not choose to use it in the middle east.
Cicero
6
Re: Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
It could be an example of this:What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)I disagree, for personal reasonsShame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leaderMorning all.Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war!
108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
rcs1000
8
Re: Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
Yeh, but that's enough on Labour's internal politics what about Iran?Jack Straw was on with Marr on LBC last night and a putsch (as an option) was hinted at.Given the mixed messages out of Iran overnight re cessefire, its not entirely impossible a coup is occuring or that Khomeini is deadMy guess is that any coup would be precipitated by protests on the streets of Tehran and other major cities. I just don't see the alternative power center in Iran for an insider coup.
Re: Ipsos brings bad news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Entirely off topic. My daughter took part in a schools Energy Challenge (sponsored by Shell) competition and won. As well as the kudos her prize was an iPad.
Moving up a year she’s doing an elective Women in Energy course. Sponsored by Shell. And she’s been issued with a new iPad - which she can keep on completion of the course (14 schools across the NE).
She’s intending to become a marine engineer. How many Shell iPads is she going to be given by the time she gets a job in the industry?
Moving up a year she’s doing an elective Women in Energy course. Sponsored by Shell. And she’s been issued with a new iPad - which she can keep on completion of the course (14 schools across the NE).
She’s intending to become a marine engineer. How many Shell iPads is she going to be given by the time she gets a job in the industry?
Re: Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com
The public really aren't in the mood to give UK politicians much credit are they. They don't think the government handled it well, despite not getting involved, which was their preferred option.
Re: Ipsos brings bad news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
I said in my post last night, do not rule out the Iranians doing something symbolic, telegraphing it, claiming success and then stopping the cycle with the Americans.
Stories have it the attack on the airbase in Qatar is right along those lines. The airbase, and the ports in Bahrain were largely emptied last week.
Stories have it the attack on the airbase in Qatar is right along those lines. The airbase, and the ports in Bahrain were largely emptied last week.
Yokes
5
Re: Ipsos brings bad news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Blocked.Speaking of which, your regular reminder that several PBers have Bluesky accountsPBers blathering on how they stay away from Bluesky cos it's a woke echo chamber remind me a bit of those who kept endlessly reminding everyone of which other PBers they'd blocked. Why quietly ignore people/things when you can make a big song and dance about it is very much the zeitgeist.
https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26
biggles
5
Re: Ipsos brings bad news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
He's still alive.Poor Tom Lehrer - for some reason I can’t imagine him spinning smoothly in his grave. More jerking spasmodically all over the place..If only Kissinger was alive to pontificate on this form of statecraft.https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937238008140562772Hahahaha.
Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was "set free," because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their "system," and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
97.