Best Of

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

Britain probably not best placed to advise others on European unity, unfortunately.

That sounds like the whole history of European 'unity' with each country looking for its own advantage over the other members of the Union

Oh sure, and the French are the absolute worst but I think it takes a certain lack of self awareness to think that a country that has done more than any other in recent years to weaken European unity and advance Putin's divide and rule strategy has any credibility in this space.

In terms of defence Britain has done far more to strengthen Europe than any of the traditional EU major players. You only have to look at the JEF or the Mutual Defence Pact that the UK signed with Sweden and FInland prior to their accession to NATO. This is proper practical stuff rather than just talking about it. And it cannot be hindered by the pro-Russian elements within the EU.

Germany has provided more military support to Ukaine than we have and the EU overall has provided over EUR80bn, more than the US and five times what we have.

Firstly I wasn't talking just about financial aid to Ukraine as should have been obvious from my mentioning the JEF so stop moving the goalposts.

And secondly, given the EU economy is about 5 times larger than the UKs that looks like we are pretty much on a par in terms of support for Ukraine.

Why are you so desperate to do down the UK just for the sake of your precious EU?

I could ask why are you so desperate to deny that Brexit was a project supported by Putin and designed to weaken the EU? Or why are you so keen to talk up our contribution to defending Europe while denying the role of other countries? You initially said we had done "far more" to strengthen European defence than any EU member and you now say we are "on par" in terms of our support for Ukraine, the current front line in our defence of Europe. And you say I am the one moving the goalposts...
The people "doing down" the UK are Putin's useful idiots who supported a disastrous exit from the EU that has left us poorer and weaker on the world stage.

I didn't deny the contribution of other countries. You are the only one here trying to claim that we have weakened defence and security.

And don't misquote me (what am I saying, you can only make and argument by misquoting people)

I did not say, "any EU member", I said "any of the traditional EU major players". I phrased it specifically that way because I am aware that the Eastern EU countries have done far more than the UK or anyone else.

So stop lying, stop misquoting and stop being such a fucking tool for the EU.

We are doing less than Germany, in terms of defence funding for Ukraine. Are they not a "traditional EU member player"?
I have had a lot of respect for you as a poster but in the last couple of days you have indulged in a number of unpleasant ad hominem attacks when I have posted on the subject of Brexit, which is a shame.
I will nevertheless continue to argue that the UK has been weakened by Brexit, that Europe has been weakened, divided and distracted by it, and Russia has been the main beneficiary. This is not because I am some starry eyed EU fanatic, as you seem to imagine, but because I can see the reality of what has happened in the last nine years. It is driven by what I see as our national self interest. One of the many delusions of Brexiteers is to imagine they have some kind of monopoly on patriotic sentiment. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

One of my fears is that Ukraine cannot keep up this intensity of warfare indefinitely, and that as the support from Europe falters, they may reach a breaking point before Russia does. And then, when Russia wants to have another go at Europe, they will benefit from Ukrainian industry and the Ukrainian people that they have coerced into fighting for them.

Europe reeks of a desperation for peace. It only emboldens Russia to push for more.

Zelensky has already said he would agree to a ceasefire on current lines, as has Europe but Putin wants more than that which they reject

Russia can keep on pushing for more because Putin has the security of knowing that he can offer a ceasefire at any time, and there is no question that it will be accepted. There is thus no risk for him that in pushing for more he might risk Russian becoming overextended and losing some of what he has. The European desperation for peace thus encourages Putin to prolong the war.

The only way to break out of this dynamic is to commit to a strategy for victory.

If Europe were that desperate for peace they would already have accepted Putin's preferred peace terms.

There is zero chance of forcing Russia out of Ukraine until Trump leaves office and a new Democrat President might give the extra funds and arms needed for Zelensky to be able to do so, at best a ceasefire on current lines is all that can be done for now

That's just not true.
While I acknowledge it's unlikely, since their various leaders are just too cautious, Europe has the capacity on its own to defeat Putin. But it would require a serious collective commitment which isn't yet there.

It's not impossible that the Trump overreach and outright hostility towards Europe leads to the penny dropping.
I'm not betting on it but it's considerably more than a non zero chance.

It would need massive austerity and slashing of welfare states and health budgets or massive tax rises to fund massive increases in European arms manufacturing to send to Ukraine which European electorates just aren't willing to do. The slight increase in defence budgets already approved is all they will back but that can at best ensure stalemate, not victory without US support as well

In fact, the financial commitment would not need to be huge. Poland has shown that it can be done.

I know people scream and shout about trivial things, but leadership means you sometimes have to say "piss off. There are bigger fish to fry."

There's no reason why I would, but I don't know what the Tories are offering in Wales. I know what Labour has offered - 20mph speed limits etc. I believe Plaid are broadly the same, but in a nationalist way. Reform are the opposite, wanting to revive heavy industry. What are the Tories for there? All I know is that they recently deposed their leader for being too right wing (is my reading). Why do they want power there?

That highlights the underlying problem for the Conservatives, perhaps going back a couple of decades. What do they want and who are they for? If you want right wing populism, Reform are going to do it better. If you want paternalism with half an eye on the pennies, the Conservatives have little appeal now. Kemi, like several of her predecessors, is stuck in a no-mans-land between the two.

Labour have got a massive problem. Centrist dads in constituencies that don't have a Waitrose or a Gail's isn't a winning coalition. But it's better than the one the Conservatives have.

Labour's problem is that it has a culture, built on its founding story/myth, of being a party that represents the working classes when, for white voters at least, it no longer commands that constituency but now represents the educated working middle classes.

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

One of my fears is that Ukraine cannot keep up this intensity of warfare indefinitely, and that as the support from Europe falters, they may reach a breaking point before Russia does. And then, when Russia wants to have another go at Europe, they will benefit from Ukrainian industry and the Ukrainian people that they have coerced into fighting for them.

Europe reeks of a desperation for peace. It only emboldens Russia to push for more.

Zelensky has already said he would agree to a ceasefire on current lines, as has Europe but Putin wants more than that which they reject

Russia can keep on pushing for more because Putin has the security of knowing that he can offer a ceasefire at any time, and there is no question that it will be accepted. There is thus no risk for him that in pushing for more he might risk Russian becoming overextended and losing some of what he has. The European desperation for peace thus encourages Putin to prolong the war.

The only way to break out of this dynamic is to commit to a strategy for victory.

If Europe were that desperate for peace they would already have accepted Putin's preferred peace terms.

There is zero chance of forcing Russia out of Ukraine until Trump leaves office and a new Democrat President might give the extra funds and arms needed for Zelensky to be able to do so, at best a ceasefire on current lines is all that can be done for now

That's just not true.
While I acknowledge it's unlikely, since their various leaders are just too cautious, Europe has the capacity on its own to defeat Putin. But it would require a serious collective commitment which isn't yet there.

It's not impossible that the Trump overreach and outright hostility towards Europe leads to the penny dropping.
I'm not betting on it but it's considerably more than a non zero chance.

It would need massive austerity and slashing of welfare states and health budgets or massive tax rises to fund massive increases in European arms manufacturing to send to Ukraine which European electorates just aren't willing to do. The slight increase in defence budgets already approved is all they will back but that can at best ensure stalemate, not victory without US support as well

It really wouldn't. Russia's GDP is approximately $2.2trn. EU GDP is $21trn and ours is another $3.6 trn so our combined GDP is comfortably more than 10X Russia's. Russia had a massive advantage in terms of stored hardware at the start of the war but that is now almost completely exhausted. What is required is the will and in particular the willingness to break with the US by acting unilaterally and contrary to their apparent wishes. That is not an easy decision given the role the US has played in our defence for 80 years now but I think it is inevitable that break will come.

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

Britain probably not best placed to advise others on European unity, unfortunately.

That sounds like the whole history of European 'unity' with each country looking for its own advantage over the other members of the Union

Oh sure, and the French are the absolute worst but I think it takes a certain lack of self awareness to think that a country that has done more than any other in recent years to weaken European unity and advance Putin's divide and rule strategy has any credibility in this space.

In terms of defence Britain has done far more to strengthen Europe than any of the traditional EU major players. You only have to look at the JEF or the Mutual Defence Pact that the UK signed with Sweden and FInland prior to their accession to NATO. This is proper practical stuff rather than just talking about it. And it cannot be hindered by the pro-Russian elements within the EU.

India is about to start producing drones for Russia's war in Ukraine. Europeans are desperately talking about peace to keep in with Trump, but the peace talks seem to be only a diversion to stop Europe from using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight for survival.

The situation feels really bleak, and reportedly Starmer was the driving force behind pushing the target data for NATO's new 5% spending target out to 2035, so the British PM is a main component in the axis of denial in Europe that is holding it back from grasping the reality of the precarious position Europe is in and of taking decisive action to turn things around.

What's the good news?

Starmer should take a leaf out of President Trump's book and warn Modi that any drones will trigger the immediate cancellation of all Indian visas. He won't, of course. Something something international law.

Partly, but mostly realpolitik that we aren't the USA and even the USA struggles with its demands from countries the size of India.

Actually Britain and America are equally important for the Indian diaspora. Russia, on the other hand, is not.

Good luck convincing Modi to take orders from Starmer.....

Modi depends on a lot of NRI money and the UK has a huge and fairly enthusiastic support base for Modi. Banning all types of work and student visas as well as suspending the new trade deal would be appropriate IMO. Maybe even putting up restrictions on visitor visas. I say this as a British Indian so it brings me little joy to suggest such measures but supplying Russia with drones that will be used to kill people in Ukraine is beyond acceptable and we shouldn't accept it. Even if it means our tourist and education sectors suffer for a while.

The French want Russian assets frozen in France to be exempt from the reparations loan. Fuxsake, this is never going to happen.

Didn’t a bright spark say during the American Revolution that “we must hang together or surely we will hang apart”.

Unfortunately, as ever, national concerns in Europe take precedence over the good for the continent. France with their protectionism, Spain and Ireland with their obsession with Gaza over the real threat, Hungary and Slovakia with its leaders beholden to Putin. At least Germany has made the post Merkel switch to reality and the Baltic, Poland and Scandinavia/Nordic nations are being pragmatic.

We will likely fudge spending and end up with an approach that isn’t optimised for the real threat.

Putin knows all this and even though he would be on a hiding to nothing if he tried to roll into Poland and the Baltic when his army is incapable of winning in Ukraine as it is but he will play a long game and benefit from disunity and selfishness.

One of my fears is that Ukraine cannot keep up this intensity of warfare indefinitely, and that as the support from Europe falters, they may reach a breaking point before Russia does. And then, when Russia wants to have another go at Europe, they will benefit from Ukrainian industry and the Ukrainian people that they have coerced into fighting for them.

Europe reeks of a desperation for peace. It only emboldens Russia to push for more.

IMHO, enough of Europe is willing to back Ukraine so as to enable them to keep fighting. Of course, we need to do more than that. Just turn on the taps, in terms of supplying money and munitions.