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The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.

Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.

Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.

Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.

Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.

The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by Russia's allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)

Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.

Ukranian Christmas present to Russia. Orenburg gas plant is on fire.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2004172940745785687

Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?

Yep they’re winning.

50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China.
Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis.
Russia and the EU are diminished.
The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.

Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.

You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.

Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.

Ukranian Christmas present to Russia. Orenburg gas plant is on fire.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2004172940745785687

Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?

Yep they’re winning.

50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China.
Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis.
Russia and the EU are diminished.
The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.

Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.

I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.

The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.

The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.

The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.

The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.

You think Zelensky wants to stay in power indefinitely? I'm not convinced. You're also ignoring that Ukraine accepted a ceasefire back in March but Russia has stalled again and again. I can't help but think you are looking for a both sidesism argument to justify isolationism.

Complaining about the military industrial complex also seems rather odd when defence spending is so historically low. Is Russia a massive threat.? Well it ought not to be able to win a war against a united Europe (US seems to have lost interest) but that is somewhat besides the point. It is a nuclear armed country seeking to rebuild a European Empire and has the China on its side. A country which is a rising superpower and intends to undermine democracy and freedom. Which has just been given access to advance chip technology by the Trump administration. The world is in a very precarious moment. The liberal desire to play it down seems oddly parochial.

Ukranian Christmas present to Russia. Orenburg gas plant is on fire.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2004172940745785687

Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?

Yep they’re winning.

50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China.
Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis.
Russia and the EU are diminished.
The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.

Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.

I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.

The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.

The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.

The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.

The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.

I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.

The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.

This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.

Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.

Ukranian Christmas present to Russia. Orenburg gas plant is on fire.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2004172940745785687

Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?

Yep they’re winning.

50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China.
Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis.
Russia and the EU are diminished.
The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.

Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.

I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.

The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.

The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.

The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.

The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.

I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.

The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.